[ad_1]
The crucial game of November 3 is approaching and despite the burden of Donald Trump in the last sprint, the omens remain negative for him and favorable for his opponent, Joe Biden.
The Democratic presidential candidate is sweeping the polls, maintaining, or even expanding, his lead over the current White House tenant in his bid to win both domestically and in key states. Trump appears to be losing even a large percentage of the senior voters who gave him the victory in 2016, while his opponent has amassed record amounts of donations, giving him a significant advantage to bombard his radio and television ads. voters in the final stages of the race.
RELEVANT ARTICLES
At the same time, election analysts are increasing Biden’s chances of winning not just the popular vote (FiveThirtyEight gives him 87% and the Decision Table around 83.5%), but the Electorate as well. Yet in the same position four years ago was Hillary Clinton, who was considered by many favorites, but lost the election even though she won the popular vote. Is it reasonable for Democrats to worry about history repeating itself, says the BBC, listing possible reasons that could give Trump victory?
A surprise in the sprint to the elections
A last-minute surprise could reverse the negative climate for Trump, as happened in 2016 when, just 11 days before the confrontation, the then director of the FBI, James Comey, revealed that their service would reconsider its use for Hillary clinton from her personal email account while she was the US secretary of state, a topic that dominated the American media for days, giving Trump staff an opportunity to seize the event.
Something similar could now increase Trump’s chances of victory, despite the news last month being negative for the Republican president, such as the NY Times revelation that he was paying a tax of only $ 750 a year, or his coronary hospitalization. . . A New York Post article involving Biden, then vice president of the United States, in an effort to politically push Ukraine towards the interests of a company of which Hunter’s son was a member is not deemed capable of becoming due to his background. questionable. the opinion of many voters, unless other more shocking revelations follow; after all, Trump has promised not to drop the subject.
Are the polls falling?
Joe Biden has maintained a consistent lead over Trump in national polls since officially accepting the Democratic nomination for the presidency, and even leads in key states where the battle is expected to be ambiguous. However, as experience four years ago demonstrated, leadership in the popular vote at the national and state levels does not automatically translate into victory, as the electoral college will have the last word, which crowns the winner. Aside from the fact that some polls underestimated in 2016 the number of high-level white voters who would support Trump.
Although the New York Times predicts that Biden’s gap so far is too great to reverse, the uneven factor is the letter vote in times of coronavirus with indications so far of Trump’s record and personal turnout. affirms that it will legally question the result by denouncing in advance a galloping attempt. If voters make mistakes filling out forms or there is a delay in the delivery of ballots, many can be canceled and many, who were considered “potential voters” at the polls, may not get up from their couches.
A spectacularly good performance by Trump in the last debate with Biden
The first debate between the two presidential candidates two weeks ago turned into a fiasco for Trump, as his highly aggressive style alienated suburban voters, a key demographic in the election. Trump missed out on having fun when he refused to participate in a televised online battle with his opponent and will get another chance next Thursday when he takes on Biden.
If he manages to appear calmer and more “presidential” this time, and if Biden makes a dramatic mistake, then the balance may tip in Trump’s favor.
Trump’s overwhelming dominance in key states
The polls certainly give Biden an advantage, but there are still several key states where Trump is ahead or slightly below the statistical margin of error and it cannot be ruled out that the electoral college eventually wins, even if he loses. the popular vote.
The truth is that it seems almost unlikely that it will conquer some of the states that it won four years ago, such as Wisconsin and Michigan, however, if it manages to impose itself even marginally on the rest -conquering Florida and Pennsylvania, among others- it is possible that it will catch the magic number of 270 out of a total of 538 voters and be re-elected. Some US media are even discussing the possibility of a tie between the two gladiators (that is, with 269 voters each) and the final decision to vote in Congress, where the majority is likely to side with Trump.
Biden’s mistake
During the election campaign thus far, Biden, known for his tendency to make mistakes, has avoided serious slip-ups, but the party has now entered its final stage and the focus is even more on the two opponents, increasing his risks. for the Democratic candidate to say or do something that will cost him victory, irritating eg. Supporting constituencies of voters such as frustrated Republicans, traditional Democratic voters, members of minorities, etc.
The possibility that the fatigue of the prolonged election campaign is visible to Biden is also open, offering new arrows to the quiver of Trump, who is challenged by Biden’s age of 77, to hold the reins of the country firmly in his arms. hands, even though it is. only three years younger …
[ad_2]
