Biden’s Choice: Pious Wishes and Reality in Greek-Turkish

Monday, November 9, 2020, 00:02

In Greece, we are watching what is happening in American politics, inevitably through the relations between the United States and Greece and between the United States and Turkey. When for more than four years the President of the United States, Donald Trump, showed scandalous tolerance of what Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan did at the regional and local level as a geopolitical troublemaker … When we hear him tell us about “how good that It is “Erdogan” and because of “how worthy of a leader he is and what excellent cooperation he has with him,” the one who creates serious security problems in our country, we wish the vast majority the choice of their opponent. So we are glad that the 46th president of the United States, his opponent the Democratic candidate Joe Biden was elected when in fact during the pre-election period he had emphatically criticized the Turkish president for his provocative behavior and violations of International Law and the rules. derived from it. , waiting for a return to normality.

Of course, in the last two years, the Third Foreign Minister, Mr. Pompeo, tried to balance as much as possible with his visits to Greece, his statements and letters, but also with the cultivation of interpersonal relationships with the Prime Greek minister. But what we feared was not what we officially saw and heard, but what we unofficially and behind the doors believed was happening and reflected the special Trump-Erdogan relationship that everyone in Washington was talking about, as revealed by the former national security adviser. John Bolton in his book “The Room Where It All Happened”.

But these will be a definite past as of January 20, 2021. In any case, however, we must restrict ourselves by avoiding oversimplifications and, most importantly, we must establish clear boundaries between reality and piety! International relations are dominated by cynicism and driven by interests. Americans are voting on how the United States will be governed. Biden was elected, like any president, to ensure the prosperity of Americans but also to promote American interests everywhere, and it is certain that he will view his relations with Greece and Turkey from this perspective. And it is in the United States’ interest to have Turkey … close to it with a regulatory framework, of course, and not with actions and policies that undermine American interests.

So what can change? It is estimated that US foreign policy will now follow institutional paths and institutional procedures, which means in principle that the return to normalcy certainly favors the Greek side. And to avoid the question of whether we support such a thing, we note that Erdogan may have enjoyed Trump’s trust and immunity, but in the Pentagon and the bureaucracy of “Foggy Bottom,” as it is called in the US capital, the State Department was created important a lack of trust in an open ally for whom there is evidence of his business with ISIS, Iran and even distant Venezuela, perhaps for many more. The prevailing view, as expressed by many analysts close to this bureaucracy, is that Trump’s selective tolerance and efforts not to “squeeze” the Turkish president were against US interests. However, Erdogan’s “special relationship” and selective tolerance have ended, and we will probably learn a lot about Halkbank’s trial next March, which Trump tried by all means to suppress.

But it is a pious wish of some to think that the United States will side with Greece in a possible Greek-Turkish conflict. Nor will they send the VI Fleet to stop the Turkish aggression. For the US, it’s one thing for Erdogan and another for Turkey, which has held its value in what we call … “geopolitical stock market” over time and especially under current circumstances, for reasons we have repeatedly discussed. . And they won’t want to lose it completely. The new US administration is expected to try to bring Turkey “back to the West” by separating it as much as possible from Erdogan himself and imposing rules on him. The Americans want Turkey to be strong to some degree to be a “security subcontractor” but not an uncontrollable regional actor. Of course, we are frightened by the idea that this can be done by pressuring Greece to make … discounts on Turkish aggression, if not some sacrifices so that everyone has “peace of mind”! However, it is “compensatory” our suspicion that Biden has a very good knowledge of the region, the Greek-Turkish relations of the Cyprus question and the regional balance of power.

We are pleased with the upcoming change in the White House and the entire impending shakeup of the United States administration, but we must also be moderate. At least Biden doesn’t question postwar geopolitical data like the value of NATO and transatlantic ties and doesn’t see international politics … as trade like his predecessor did. In any case, things couldn’t be worse for us. We will also have to wait to see which individuals will be selected to “lead” Foreign and Security Policy issues and to what extent the “Bureaucracy” of the US Secretary of State and the Foreign Office will move autonomously to have secure evaluations.

But this is for the United States. Now it is up to the Greek Government to demonstrate to the Biden Administration that Greece is a credible ally that may not have the same geostrategic weight as Turkey, which undoubtedly threatens its security, but its own value must also be taken into account. its specific weight that can lead to strong converging interests. The literary recognition of our country as a pillar of stability must materialize in practice. Beyond any crisis management with Turkey, it is finally important to develop a coherent National Strategy to know “where and how we want to go”, otherwise, as Senecas said: “When one does not know which port to go to, there is no strong wind. And pay attention to the critical period until Biden assumes the presidency next January.Ankara may try to create new achievements that produce political results.

* Lieutenant General ea Konstantinos Loukopoulos is director of the “Liberal Observatory”

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