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Defamatory expressions from both sides, extreme reactions, division … The pre-election climate in sight on November 3 in the US. reaches the limits of the “civil war”, with armed groups clashing with each other, police violence follows one another, accompanied by anti-racist reactions and its pandemic new coronavirus to further complicate the situation. Joe Biden and Donald Trump are called in a few hours to “cross the sword” for the first time in their lives, participating in the first – and crucial, as has been demonstrated in previous electoral races – debate. “This year” race “pre-election”.
Shortly before his “curtain” opens debate Between the two candidates (4 am Greek time), polls in the United States give a “clear” winner. The experience of the 2016 elections, however, does not allow an absolute reference to any possible outcome. Still, New York Times polls suggest that Democrat Joe Biden is the winner. For the first time, according to the website of the great American newspaper, Biden leads with a percentage that covers even the possible error of plus / minus 3%.
The following table is typical:
As shown in the table above, in the first bar, Joe Biden prevails in states where the difference is 3% and more.
In the second bar, if the pollsters’ predictions are confirmed, the Democratic candidate wins by a large difference of Donald trump, with 359 seats, compared to 179 for Republicans.
In the third bar, Biden is also imposed, although the unexpected happens, that is, the statistical error registered in the 2016 elections, when Trump prevailed. Hillary clinton and took power.
What is the defining point highlighted by the “numbers” in your surveys New York Times; The dominance of Joe Biden in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nebraska, which will give him 270 seats and, consequently, victory in the elections.
The following table with the comparisons is indicative:
Everything shows, according to opinion polls, that Joe biden it will be the big winner in the November elections, unless the “mistake” of 2016 is repeated. The data, however, are different this year.
First, this year’s polls have a sample of voters from all walks of life and educational levels. In 2016, the participants had a higher education level, so Trump was underestimated.
Second, this year there appears to be a much lower percentage of undecided. In 2016, most of the undecided turned to Trump and his, if nothing else, special rhetoric.
In third place, in the 2016 surveys, the possible statistical error during the last three weeks was examined. These polls gave Clinton the winner. This time around, the change in the polls is much smaller compared to 2016.
How the first debate will take place
Traditionally in the United States, the first of three debates largely determines the outcome. Or at least, it affects a significant percentage of voters.
The evolution of the pandemic, the successive racist and non-police crimes, the reactions of groups to the measures by the new coronavirus, the deterioration of the economy and the rapid rise in unemployment rates, are just some of the issues that will mark the agenda.
The “confrontation” advice
1) The debate will begin at 9 pm in the United States (4 am Greek time) and will take place at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, Ohio.
2) Its duration will be 90 minutes.
3) It will be broadcast on all channels, such as ABC, CBS, CNN, C-SPAN, Fox News, MSNBC and NBC.
4) The discussion will be moderated by the presenter of the Fox News Sunday program, Chris Wallace, who had taken over the direction of one of the three debates of 2016, between Trump and Clinton.
5) The discussion will be divided into 15 minute sections that will focus on six different topics chosen by Mr. Walsh and announced to the staff of the two presidential candidates a week before the telematch.
The questions to be asked of the two candidates
Four key issues are expected to dominate the three presidential televisions, which, according to US media, will decide the winner.
1) Who is best suited to ensure the recovery of the US economy
Both presidential candidates are expected to emerge as the savior of the US economy, which is experiencing a deep recession. Joe Biden has already presented himself as the politician who contributed to America’s economic recovery after the 2008-2009 collapse, while Donald Trump claims that “foreign forces” are to blame for America’s economic recession.
2) Who is tougher on China?
Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, China has become the punching bag in the electoral campaign of both presidential candidates. Joe Biden claims that Trump has a very positive attitude towards China, as in the early stages of the pandemic he praised Beijing for the measures it took, while Donald Trump described his opponent as “Beijing Biden”, claiming that the Democratic candidate has largely supported Chinese interests.
3) Who is to blame for the tragic treatment of the coronavirus pandemic in the United States?
No voter believes that Donald Trump is to blame for the pandemic, but the tragic mistakes in trying to slow the spread of the disease and the large number of deaths work against him. Joe Biden is expected to focus on this issue, while Trump will accuse the governors, his predecessor and forces “beyond his control.”
4) An introvert or an extrovert America after the pandemic?
Trump will reiterate his central slogan “America first,” emphasizing that the pandemic demonstrates the need for strict national borders, restricted immigration, and economic production within the United States. Biden is not expected to defend international free trade, and he is speaking of economic protectionist measures himself, but he is also expected to emphasize the need for international cooperation, for example, through the World Health Organization.
When will the other two debates take place?
The second televised confrontation between Donald Trump and Joe Biden will take place October 15 in Florida. It will take place at the Arsht Center, one of the largest arts and culture centers in the United States and will air at 09:00 local time (4 am Greek time). The coordinator, in the 90 minute telematch, will be the Steve Scali, news anchor on the C-SPAN television network. In this second debate there will be an audience, selected by an independent company with which the templates of both parties agreed and which will be able to ask questions of the two rival candidates for the US presidency. Donald Trump and Joe Biden will have two minutes to answer each question and the facilitator may allow one more minute for additional questions.
The final televised Trump-Biden match will take place in Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee, October 22. It will also run for 90 minutes and will be moderated by an NBC reporter. Kristen Wecker.
Beside, October 7 The only debate will take place between the vice presidential candidate of the United States, Mike Pence, and the Republican Kamala Harris. It will take place in Salt Lake City, Utah and will be moderated by USA Today reporter Susan Page.
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