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Yesterday’s foreign policy article focuses on how the new president of the United States, Joe Biden, will be called in to manage the … troubled waters of the eastern Mediterranean. The article, signed by Jonathan Gorvetti, offers an assessment of the future of Erdogan-Biden relations, as well as the hopes that Greece and Cyprus have for a change in attitude from Washington in a way that allows the exploitation of the underwater wealth in the region.
Below is a translation of the article:
When the president-elect of the United States, Joe Biden, takes office, he realizes that the eastern Mediterranean is very far away. In the Aegean, Turkish and Greek warships look at each other nervously, while in Cyprus, a decade-long peace process seeking the reunification of Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots risks collapsing after Turkey backed the official division of the island. in two states. in October. Adding fuel to the fire is a long and unresolved dispute over hydrocarbon and maritime rights between Turkey and Cyprus, which has attracted international oil companies. such as Exxon Mobil and Total, as well as eastern Mediterranean neighbors such as Israel and Egypt.
As tensions have risen in the past, the United States has largely changed its traditional regional role as a referee, mediator, and sometimes a country with sticks. However, this can change. The election of “Joe Bidenopoulos” – as he was once presented to a group of Greek-Americans – has reached the ears of Greeks and Greek Cypriots seeking greater support from the United States in their disputes with Turkey. Yet despite Biden’s harsh rhetoric on Turkey, it remains a key state in this strategically vital region. When he takes office in January, the new president will have to weigh a number of interests to navigate the problems of the eastern Mediterranean, and tackling Ankara may not be his top priority.
The last time Turkey and Greece came close to colliding, in a 1996 dispute over Imia, a pair of uninhabited islands in the northern Aegean, US President Bill Clinton sent US warships to separate the warring parties. At the urging of outgoing President Donald Trump, the country “was not constructive in alleviating the immediate crisis” at its maritime borders, said Ekavi Athanasopoulou, assistant professor of international relations at the University of Athens. For his part, Marc Pierini, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe, added that “the role of the United States was diminished.”
Biden, on the other hand, has known the region and its leaders well from his time as vice president and his official visits to Ankara, Athens and Nicosia. And unlike Trump, he does not have close ties to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. On the contrary: in the past, Biden has made no secret of his discontent with the current Turkish government and, conversely, with his support for Greece and Cyprus. While Trump bet on his friendship with Erdogan, Biden called him an “autocrat” who, as he told the New York Times in an interview last December, “must pay a price.”
Biden is not alone. Washington’s concern for Turkey has grown in recent years at all political levels. Still, “President Biden may not be exactly the same as Biden,” Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish research program at the Washington Institute for the Near East, said in November. “Turkey borders Syria, Iran, Iraq and, beyond the Black Sea, Russia.” Whatever the US policy in these areas, it will be much easier and less expensive with Turkey. “
The region’s problems are compounded by a series of interrelated differences, with Turkey as a common denominator, as Ankara seeks to challenge what it sees as an unfair regional status quo. “Turkey feels trapped in the eastern Mediterranean,” Cagaptay said.
This sentiment is most pronounced at sea, where Turkey has long protested the unfair distribution of maritime territory, arguing that the status quo ignores a vast coastal area while its neighbors enjoy vast maritime zones. Therefore, Ankara refuses to recognize Greek maritime border claims in the Aegean, where dozens of Greek islands lie off the Turkish coast. It also does not recognize Athens’ claim to the seas to the south and east of the Greek island of Crete, areas where a 2019 agreement between Turkey and the UN-recognized Libyan government in Tripoli is considered Turkish, but international maritime law remains. consider Greek. THE
Tensions escalated this fall when Turkey sent one of the Oruc Reis research ships into these waters near Crete, sending Greek and Turkish warships to battle positions, and also pushed France to send warships in support of the European ally. . Union, Greece. At the same time, since the Turkish invasion of Cyprus in 1974 the island was divided into Northern Turkish Cypriot and Southern Greek Cypriot, there was no agreement between Ankara and Nicosia on the location of the respective sea and air borders. This became a much more divisive issue after 2012, when natural gas was discovered in waters claimed by Cyprus, but which Turkey claims belongs to it.
Disagreements over how to manage natural resources in the region have also been the focus of UN-funded discussions aimed at reunifying Cyprus. These talks collapsed in 2017, and then Turkey began sending seismic research vessels and drilling rigs to the waters it claims from Cyprus. These ships are still there today, and Cyprus, with the support of Greece and France, has continued to protest their presence, urging the EU to punish Turkey with financial sanctions, a call that has yet to be made. but it will be reviewed by EU leaders in December.
While there is a widespread expectation in the region that the Biden administration will bring new initiatives and a commitment to break out of the stalemate, addressing these interconnected issues will not be easy. The October elections in “Northern Cyprus”, which only Turkey recognizes internationally, complicate the matter. The new prime minister, Ersin Tatar, an ally of Erdogan, supports the new Turkish position of a two-state solution for Cyprus. This would permanently divide the island between Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots, who have been separated from a protected area by the UK since 1974.
Turkey’s position contrasts with the last five decades of United Nations-funded negotiations, which have always aimed, unsuccessfully, at a comprehensive settlement for the island’s reunification. This objective continues to be supported by Greek Cypriot leaders, Greece, the EU, the United States and the wider international community. However, Turkey maintains that after five decades of failed negotiations, reunification is a waste of time and the de facto division of the island must be done de jure.
While this position has few followers beyond Turkey and northern Cyprus, it increases the likelihood of a permanent collapse in the UN negotiations. Cyprus Foreign Minister Nikos Christodoulidis also voiced his fears in November that Ankara’s position could also lead to a possible annexation of the Turkish Cypriot north by Turkey.
So, in the face of the possible failure of any new reunification effort, “Biden may have to decide whether to try to achieve a comprehensive solution to the Cyprus problem or to tackle the hydrocarbon problem separately and immediately,” said Erol Kaym. , Professor of International Relations at the University of the Eastern Mediterranean of the Occupied Territories.
In the Aegean, meanwhile, where Greece and Turkey have even more controversial territorial claims, “Biden wants a reduction in escalation and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of his first calls didn’t go to Erdogan asking him to help with that.” Cagaptay said. Unlike Trump, Biden will not be able to rely on any personal relationship with Erdogan to do so. Instead, you are more likely to work with multilateral organizations to drive change. “Biden will give much more weight than Trump to alliances and institutions,” said Ian Liger, vice president of the German Marshall Fund.
In particular, we can expect him to look at the EU, given that both Cyprus and Greece are EU member states. “Starting with the president [Μπαράκ] “Obama hopes that Europe will play a bigger role, especially in the eastern Mediterranean, where the dispute is ultimately between Turkey and two EU member states,” said Sinan Ulgen, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels.
“Turkey will also re-evaluate its foreign policy to take account of the change in the White House,” Ulgen said. “It will also mean that there should be a difficult but more open dialogue between the United States and Turkey on a number of complaints.” These range from the Syrian civil war to Turkey’s purchase of Russian S400 missiles, and threats of US sanctions in response to recent tests of these missiles, meaning that “there could be some unrest in the face of Turkish-US relations. “. Ulgen said.
This confusion, in turn, could mean that instead of solving the region’s problems, Biden could help bring those problems to the eastern Mediterranean.
Source: Sigma Live
