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The message that Tayyip Erdogan sent to the Europeans, re-developing the “Oruc Reis” in southern Kastelorizo was very clear as to the content that the 17-year-old leader of Turkey gives to power. This is sometimes demonstrated by diplomatic and political means, but when necessary, the threat of war is mobilized.
In Berlin, Angela Merkel feels that key aspects of constructive diplomacy have been violated. Initially, Mevlüt Tsavousoglou “hung by the pegs” the otherwise “hidden” tripartite of Greece, Germany, Turkey in Berlin. Ankara then opened the coastal highway to Varosia to put pressure on the international community, but also to support its choice of Turkish Cypriot leadership. Eventually, it issued a new NAVTEX for “Oruc Reis,” with Erdogan promising to send the Yavuz drilling rig to the region, not even 24 hours after German Foreign Minister Haiko Maas ostentatiously canceled his trip to Ankara. Final stop planned after the visit to Nicosia and Athens in order to reheat the exploratory.
Brussels’ mobilization was also embarrassing, and the way Paris reacted suggests that Europeans probably did not expect Erdogan to return to the path of escalation so quickly. Although the American elections are a milestone in America’s attitude toward the world (and not just in the eastern Mediterranean), the polarized electoral game within the United States should not raise hopes of intervention in Athens if Ankara chooses to lead an army. crisis in Kastelorizo.
With all this in mind, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis travels to Brussels today with the objective, assisted by the President of the Republic of Cyprus Nikos Anastasiadis, but also some other quite strong voices against Turkey, such as Austria and France. Although the burden of criticism falls on Germany because it failed to mediate effectively while appearing through leaks from “government officials” to Reuters to oppose the sanctions, the game is much broader.
It is very doubtful that countries like Spain or Italy favor sanctions against Turkey. Spanish banks and insurance funds have quite a significant exposure to the Turkish economy. According to recent estimates by ABN-AMRO analysts, BBVA (Spain’s second largest bank) has a third of Turkey’s pre-tax profits. Similar examples exist in Italy, but also in the Netherlands.
There are some crucial details that judge behaviors. The existing industrial cooperation between Germany and Turkey is just one presentable reason for other Europeans to hide behind Berlin, which has been exposed to this crisis. In the case of Germany, the deterioration of relations with Turkey has a political impact (4 million voters of Turkish origin in Germany), but it also puts obstacles to a possible investment in Turkey, which is full of cheap labor. But in the case of countries like Spain, there is also the risk of the collapse of the banking system, with implications for insurance funds, which in turn have invested in schemes such as national shipbuilding. In other words, beyond the “reluctant” leadership of the Germans, there is a very real risk of “spilling over” from a serious Turkish crisis across Europe, in a period of severe economic crisis. It goes without saying the geopolitical spread that such a crisis will have, with an (even more) unbridled Erdogan.
In this difficult context, now having significant experience of the ambiguous attitude of many Europeans, Mr. Mitsotakis will ask for a roadmap for the implementation of sanctions. It will seek to link Ankara’s actions with the possibility of sanctions, which will now be triggered automatically with each step of the escalation.
At the moment, as is the business landscape, Turkey’s investigations are creating a problem, but in the Brussels mandarin type of analysis, they still do not lead to a violation of Greece’s sovereign right. Although the extension of the coastal zone from 6 to 12 nautical miles, including in Kastelorizo, is an inalienable right of the Hellenic Republic, the current reality gives arguments to those in Brussels that, despite the Turkish provocation, do not justify harsh measures. .
The broadened perception – of a carrot and a whip – of the European bureaucracy on these issues is well known to the group of diplomats currently working in Brussels, headed by Permanent Representative Giannis Brailas, and there is optimism that a result can be achieved. substantial. All this, of course, as long as Ankara does not accelerate the “Oruc Reis” journey to the area between 6 and 12 nautical miles, so the crisis develops, at a time when the 27 leaders of the EU, with them and Kyriakos Mitsotakis, will face something that could become a crisis of direct challenge to European sovereignty by an external power.
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