How deaths from coronary heart disease are recorded in Greece

Sotiris Tsiodras was asked in the context of the public debate in Germany that the credibility of the way German scientists rate R-0 and Rt, which are very important for epidemiological surveillance, is questioned. .

The estimation of the two indicators depends on variable variables and there are different ways of estimating them, and Sotiris Tsiodras was asked to explain to us how we estimate these two indicators in Greece and whether there is the possibility in our country of an objective evaluation of R- 0 and Rt.

As Sotiris Tsiodras explained, we have a team of scientists from the National Public Health Organization and the University of Athens, who study and perform mathematical estimates, which of course are based on a large amount of data.

The underlying data, he noted, is that there is scientific uncertainty about how the data is handled, and the more data you have, the better the predictions will be to reduce the reproductive rate of the epidemic and ultimately limit it. epidemic in R below 1, so each person infects less than one and the epidemic disappears.

How the dead by a coronary artery are measured

Specifically, S. Tsiodras responded to the problem: “We first have the absolute number of cases. It is subscribed in most countries. It was carried out in the first phase of the epidemic in most countries in low numbers, estimated at 1,000 or 10,000 in the population.

And in countries where there was not enough adaptation, it was done with strict epidemiological criteria, which referred to people who belonged to high-risk groups, people who needed hospitalization, people who entered the hospital, their contacts and, of course, several epidemics in inside. , as it happened in our Homeland “and continued:

“It just came to our attention then. As this number increases, it will give us even more confidence in the numbers P0 and PT. P0 is the most general reproductive rate, PT is the actual reproductive rate, what is happening in the country today , which I told you in previous press releases, that we will say it and we will see it every day, we will see it as a Commission.

The second is the actual number of patients, ICU patients, intubated patients, and the number of patients who die.

So if we consider that there is a subscription to the general number of cases in the country, there is much less subscription. However, the numbers are smaller. And the better the measurements, the lower the numbers.

So you can predict much more precisely, because you don’t copy them, and we in Greece know that we don’t copy deaths. And I told you about EuroMOMO, which made headlines today, and I am pleased that Andrea Ammon, European Director of the Centers for Disease Control, has finally found a credible indicator of the effects of the disease.

So I want to say here that, based on these numbers, which are very solid data, very close to the truth, one can make a much more accurate picture of P0 and PT.

The Germans, for example, cannot do that because they do not have a complete record of deaths, and in fact we have made another exaggeration. Anyone who died from or with Covid was registered as a Covid dying person.

I remember, for example, a cerebral hemorrhage. Having Covid does not necessarily mean you die from Covid. We registered it as if you were dying of Covid, that is, we put it in the common tank. And I think we are right, we did that.

So when the subscription is much lower, on the hard data, we use to better estimate P0 and PT, which the Germans cannot do.

The more you use the tests to diagnose the disease in the population. For example, remember that in our diagnostic criteria we now place anyone who has symptoms of a respiratory infection, go to the doctor and want to be checked.

So the better you record the number of cases in your society, something they did a little bit more in Germany, but they didn’t do it by special criteria, they did it freely and in mild cases, the more accurate the estimates, the period of estimate to decrease

And the shorter the time limit, the greater the range of your estimates, the better it will be and the more accurate you will be in what you estimate. And I think that will happen during the days and weeks in the country. We will have more, more numbers to evaluate what will happen.

Put another parameter in the “game”. Effects. Epidemic in Kranidi. We were with the minister. Epidemic in Larissa or other parts of the country. These are not calculated, you do not add them to the cases, because their effect on P0 and PT is different. There really is “what, what a hundred”.

This is another parameter that must be taken into account, that epidemics are calculated with different severity.

Also, the fact that P0 and PT can be geographically different. There it helps you to have a better record of the total number of cases.

Should I set another parameter? You asked him a question a while ago. The temperature And the temperature will affect the circulation of the virus? We are studying this as well and mathematical terms have already been proposed to study even this effect of temperature.

Should I put another parameter, which has now entered our lives? The masks The masks at this time are the subject of great controversy. You see other countries adopting a strategy like ours and it has already been announced in the United Kingdom, and a great battle is being waged over “what to do and what is less dangerous for the population”.

In this context, one takes action and watches the epidemic progress.

And the last and the best to put in such an estimate will be the vaccine. When the vaccine arrives we will have other data to talk about. So, yes, the dear journalist is right. Difficult evaluation of R0 and RT, mathematical uncertainties.

Today, to tell you something that I did not say in my ad: with a mathematical precision of 98.5%, the R0 is well below 1. I am not telling you the exact number. It is below 0.5, but we are seeing. Hopefully, with the expectation that all of us will take advantage of this good occasion and feel that our valuable participation in lowering the R0 in Greek society is so low. And we will not think of fines, Minister, we will think that we must do it and Greece must continue to be proud.

People from abroad take me and says that we are proud as a country. Remain proud, have a strategy that reduces the epidemic as little as possible, have the least return possible to a picture of the spread of the virus. All together to have a good additional course. I think we can do it. “

With information from EODY.

Details of what Mr. Tsiodras said on the subject and on video: