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Lights begin to appear in the tunnel, on the course of the coronavirus pandemic in our country, since the gradual reduction of cases in recent days creates good conditions for the next gradual opening of the economy, on the other hand it cultivates hopes of de-escalation of restrictive measures. of the Christmas holidays.
1,383 new cases were registered on Saturday, while the positivity rate fell to 7.2%, a rate much lower than in early November.
However, almost a month after the shutdown (which began on November 7), a drop in both the number of patients and the number of deaths is not expected. So the flattening of the data that experts and the government expect is being done slowly.
Although the number of intubated patients has now fallen below the “psychological threshold” of 600, both simple Covid-19 patient care and ICU admissions remain stagnant at high levels. It is indicative that at the beginning of last week we had a record number of 4,443 coronavirus patients.
The “ping pong” of the coronavirus – Chain of transmission to families
One possible explanation for the second wave in progress is that due to the great dispersion in the community there is a continuous “ping-pong” between workplaces and family dispersion, as explained by the professor of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Vana Papaevangelou during the briefing. Ministry of Health.
That is to say, where an area is going to calm down, a series of cases explode in a work environment, in a closed structure, which functions as a source of over-transmission and results in the dispersion in the homes of all these people, in their families. 
In fact, as “Sotiria” infectious disease specialist Garyfallia Poulakou has stated, the spread continues, especially in families where there are many asymptomatic patients.
“We have samples that are still worrying, especially from northern Greece. It can also be seen from the sewers in the area. An important factor is that life is not dead in the second confinement.” There is more activity of the people in relation to the measures that had been taken in the previous closure, “said Ms Poulakou.
Speaking to ANT1, he pointed out: “We have a large influx of the disease in the family. There is a large” amount “of the disease that is not registered either because some are asymptomatic within families and others are asymptomatic that will not reach the system of health for its diagnosis There is an active social activity so the chain of transmission cannot be broken. “There is a great dispersion within the family.”
However, he left a crack of optimism talking about the situation in the Sotirian hospital and in Athens in general.
“The situation in Athens has improved. There are empty beds in wards and ICUs. The influx of patients to the hospital and from the pathology clinic to the ICU has been reduced. Now the pipes are more scarce.” People should not stay at home with a fever, but go to the health system. “
When will the coveted retreat take place? Sarigianni Forecasts
Demosthenes Sarigiannis, professor of Environmental Engineering at AUTh, said that based on mathematical models the cases on December 22 will have dropped to 900, but pointed out that the former is slow and that it is premature to open the market with this data.
According to Mr. Sarigiannis’s calculations, on December 8 the cases will have reached 1,475 cases per day, on December 15 the cases will be 1,100, on December 22 they will have decreased to about 900 and at the end of the year to 770 cases.
“The cases are not in line with the goal set by the Minister of Health, Vassilis Kikilias, which was 500 cases to open the market. Our simulations show that if stores open and measurements are not observed, 15-20 days later we will see a resurgence. Therefore, any opening will be premature, ”stressed Mr Sarigiannis, speaking to SKAI.
Mosialos “Campana”: The more we open before the holidays, the greater the closing after
Elias Mosialos, professor of Health Policy at the LSE, also spoke about the lifting of the quarantine.
Speaking of the current data, Mosialos highlighted that we are at a turning point and we see a relative stabilization of the data. However, we do not see a rapid decline in hospital admissions, ICUs and deaths, and that is what worries scientists. 
We’ll have to wait a bit longer to see this decline, added Mr. Mosialos, explaining that we generally see the decline in hospital admissions first, and then the decline in the number of ICU admissions and deaths.
“If we do not see these elements improve after the next two weeks, obviously we will speak of relative stabilization, but there will be little optimism about a possible ‘opening’ of the country,” he said.
Regarding the process of lifting the quarantine in particular, Mr. Mosialos emphasized that since the impact of the pandemic in our country is not uniform, he would not propose a single decrease.
“Especially in northern Greece we have to be very careful,” he characteristically said.
On the topic of opening schools, the teacher favored the opening of primary schools. However, he pointed out that if the educational and economic activity is more open, there will be a greater impact on the disease since, as we have seen, the measures are not necessarily observed by everyone and in the ideal way.
He even warned that: “The more we are going to open now before the holidays, the greater the closing immediately after the holidays.”
Finally, the professor at the London School of Economics said that, in his opinion, the government would be better off waiting to see the figures for next week and deciding whether to open stores.
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