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The viral load in Thessaloniki remains very high, although the city has been on lockdown for more than a month, and urban sewage indicates that the virus will not disappear immediately.
According to research carried out by an interdisciplinary team from the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, in collaboration with EYATH, the latest measurements show a tendency to stabilize at very high levels in early November, when Thessaloniki was in the gray zone of the most affected areas epidemiologically.
The worrying thing is that in the last four samplings – from November 25 to December 2 – it is observed that the downward trend that began to be recorded in the four previous measurements, from the sampling of November 16 to 23, has stopped.
“Very easily, the trend can increase again exponentially”
“We are particularly concerned about the results of the latest measurements in wastewater, as they show that the improvement in the epidemiological picture has stopped at a dangerous point. Taking into account international experience, based on the wastewater rationalization measures that we do for Brussels, Amsterdam and Paris, we can say that the situation is very marginal for the city, since the tendency to measure the viral load can very easily to rotate again incrementally and even exponentially. And as the starting point this time is high, the situation can get out of control ”, the rector of AUTh and scientific head of the research project, Prof. Nikos Papaioannou, told APE-MPE.
In the diagram, published by APE-MPE, the days of sampling, recorded in red, correspond to more than 500 cases -as announced on the respective days by EODY- the days recorded in orange in 100-400 cases and the days recorded in green in less than a hundred cases.
“Why … Thessaloniki got stuck”
“Very high viral load is the main reason for the slow rates of decline since the measurements were taken.” The higher the viral load, the longer it takes for the measures to work. This is clear and it must also be borne in mind that the measures implemented since November were not, from the beginning, similar to those of last spring.
It is also evident in the traffic on the streets, a greater relaxation of the citizens, compared to last April, which is explained by the fatigue that has occurred, but is by no means justified, at a time when there is suffocating pressure in the city’s hospitals. and how serious the situation is now can be realized by each one of us, who surely already knows someone who became ill, someone who died from complications of the virus “, said the rector of the AUTh, giving an interpretation of the epidemiological picture of the city.
In addition, he set some more parameters: “When it was decided to suspend most of the activities and all the family members were locked up in their homes, this generated new outbreaks, since there were already too many asymptomatic carriers in the community and new ones were created in the same area. Infections In addition, another problem that may not have been adequately addressed relates to areas of possible excessive transmission of the virus and mainly to buses and public markets. Perhaps more measures can be taken there, there are solutions that have been successfully implemented in other European cities, solutions that we could implement immediately, such as the temporary inclusion of tourist buses in the OASTH fleet for the safe movement of citizens, such as the greater “Distribute the stalls in popular markets, etc.”, stressed the rector.
“The measurements are correct but they are not fulfilled correctly”
“The assessment confirmed by the tests on the samples that we receive in the Hospital and Structures Laboratory through EODY, is that there is a stabilization of cases at high levels, there is no reduction that we expected and this may be due to non-strict compliance with the measurements”. , is the interpretation given to the epidemiological picture of Thessaloniki by the director of the 1st Microbiology Laboratory of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki and member of the Expert Committee of the Ministry of Health, Professor Anna Papa Konidari. “If we were all more consistent, if we followed the measures with more reverence, the outlook would be better,” Papa told APE-MPE.
When asked if this finding leads to discussions in the Expert Committee on the possible need for stricter measures, the professor replied: “The measures are correct, you just have to follow them correctly. More effort is required. If the measures did not work , the increase in cases would be exponential, the spread would be such that hospitals would not be able to function. However, stability is not enough for us, what we want is a drop in the indicators, which means even more strict compliance with the measures ” .
In this context, Ms Papa explained that “with the Intensive Care Units full, the discussion on the lifting of restrictive measures in Thessaloniki is premature, the situation remains difficult and every day in the Committee all the data is discussed epidemiological “.
“We closed the door of the house to the coronavirus when it had already entered the rooms”
“The de-escalation of the epidemic in Thessaloniki is very slow because the so-called blockade was imposed quite late, when there was already a great spread of the virus in the city”, is the assessment of the professor of Pulmonology of the AUTh and Director of the Respiratory Clinic at Papanikolaou Hospital, Giannis Kioumis.
“A popular opinion of the lockdown is that we actually lock our houses assuming we keep the coronavirus out. If the lockdown is delayed, when we close the front door of the house it is already very likely that the coronavirus is inside the rooms, which it means that an epidemic cycle has started within the family itself. This is reflected in the cases and, of course, in the sewage, “Mr. Kioumis told APE-MPE.
“When the restrictive measures were implemented, the virus was already present in many homes, it had spread to an epidemic wave, where we saw in clinical practice that members of the same family were infected. Thus, in the sewerage it is expected that the viral load will decrease, when it has exhausted its cycle within families ”, explained the professor.
He added that “a second explanation – not an alternative, but added to the previous one – is that there are a large number of asymptomatic patients in the community, at a rate that we do not know,” since there are international studies that can be from 3 to 10. The number real number of carriers is many times higher than those diagnosed ”, therefore“ it is not possible to know this and therefore the sampling for the diagnosis of coronavirus must be properly stratified, there must be a representative sample of all social groups, spatial areas, professional activities “, because” if the sample is those who go to hospitals and private laboratories to perform tests, it is not representative. “
