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THE Thessaloniki will remain at least until the end of the year the most burdened by him coronavirus region of Greece, such as cases in On December 31, New Year’s Eve, it will continue to represent 25% of the total.
According to the estimates of the team of professors of the Department of Chemical Engineering of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki Demosthenes Sarigiannis One out of every four new cases that will be registered on the last day of 2020 in our country will be located in Thessaloniki, the 200 cases out of a total of 700 – 800 that day. Which means that for Thessaloniki to return to a relatively satisfactory and manageable health situation, we have plenty of time ahead of us.
the Prof. Sarigiannis’s evaluations of the evolution of the pandemic at the end of the year, presented today by Voria.gr, are based on Three assumptions. the schools will not open before January, Retail will operate gradually and with measures as of December 21, while Attention will remain closed except for restaurants, which will operate exclusively with seats and a significantly lower occupancy than they normally have, between 30% and 50%.
With these data the forecast is as follows:
- TO December 14th Throughout the country, 1,250 cases will be registered on the 31st of the month 700 – 800.
- In Athena On December 14, 220 cases will be registered, on the 21st of the month 190 and on the 31st approximately 200. As Mr Sarigiannis points out, at the end of the week the data for Athens may differ, since from the last two days there is a slowdown in the reduction of the number of cases, which means that something special has happened after 17 November, if and in the following days there is a significant increase in travel restrictions.
- In Thessaloniki On December 14 the cases will be 300, a week later they will drop to 250 and at the end of the month to 190.
- In Larissa 25 cases are expected on December 14, on the 21 of month 20 and the last day of year 18.
- In Patras the cases will be 5 on 12/14, 3 on 12/21 and one on 12/31. Exactly the same image with Patras appears in Etoloakarnania – in and around Messolonghi – which today is a relatively busy area.
These estimates will be reviewed manually in case they are phased out. emergency shutdown It will begin on December 14, a date that the government clearly has a chance to finally choose.
What will happen to the vaccines?
As Sarigianni’s team estimates, if the vaccinations in Hellas The problem of the pandemic, as we are experiencing it today, will probably be overcome by the end of April. although, as the experts say, we will have to continue taking some measures for some time. The AUTh professor himself wonders, however, what is the most appropriate land use planning for greater and faster effectiveness of vaccines, so that herd immunity reaches the country more quickly. According to Sarigiannis, his team is already studying the differences that could exist between the obvious choice of the horizontal geographic distribution of vaccines based on the population of each region and a more specific approach, depending on the epidemiological burden. The results of this study will be completed and communicated to the government in the coming days.
Since last spring the interdisciplinary team of Professor Demosthenes Sarigiannis, in the Department of Chemical Engineering of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, has created in collaboration with the Italian universities of Pavia and Pisa a series of algorithms, combined with dynamic models of population behavior, coronary spread and coronation. risk to health. These data give predictions of what will happen a few weeks or a month or two later, which in the seven months that have passed have been almost completely confirmed.
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