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The Committee of Experts of the Ministry of Health today issued a warning signal of the painful consequences of a hasty removal from the confinement through its Professor of Pediatric Infectious Diseases at EKPA Vana Papaevangelou School of Medicine. The second wave of the pandemic persists, 18 areas are in the red and the National Health System faces a critical fortnight. At the same time, released a script for a possible new extension of the lockdown until December 14. The government, in any case, will decide next week, in accordance with the epidemiological data that will exist and the suggestions of the experts.
Three weeks after the implementation of the closure, the epidemiological burden in the country remains high – “the second pandemic wave does not say that they will leave us”, as characteristically characterizes Ms Papaevangelou – and consequently the NSS will continue under intense pressure. since based on mathematical models it is estimated that In the next two weeks, some 1,600 people will need hospitalization and 250 admissions to the ICU.
In the last 24 hours, 2,013 new cases of coronavirus were registered in the country –of which 545 in Thessaloniki, 319 in Attica, 106 in Larissa, 93 in Serres and 80 in Magnesia. The total number of intubated patients is 607, while another 101 people lost the battle against the coronavirus.
The particularly stressed areas, which were mentioned during the briefing at the Ministry of Health by the Vice Minister of Civil Protection and Crisis Management Nikos Hardalias, are in the order of epidemiological burden of the last 14 days the following 18 in total 74: Pella , Drama, Thessaloniki, Grevena, Florina, Pieria, Imathia, Serres, Larissa, Kilkis, Halkidiki, Magnesia, Xanthi, Karditsa, Evros, Kavala, Rodopi and Trikala.
Achaia, Etoloakarnania and Ilia in the Western Greece region are of particular concern, and Mr. Hardalias noted that the next 24 hours are critical, compliance with measures is imperative and there is no room for complacency.
Western Greece entered the “red list”
Western Greece was included in the “red list” today from the German Robert Koch Institute of Epidemiology, which at the same time removed the Peloponnese from risk zones for the COVID-19 disease. Classification as a danger area is not a ban, but a recommendation to avoid travel and is “accompanied” by a ten-day quarantine for those returning from such areas.
Capturing the current situation, Mrs. Vana Papaevangelou pointed out today that the case curve is decreasing, but the epidemiological burden in the country remains at a high level; It is estimated that there are currently more than 25,000 active cases in the country.
Reduction in Athens and Thessaloniki
Emphasizing that there was a decline in many parts of the country last week, including Athens and Thessaloniki, with an average number of cases across the country close to 2,000, Ms Papaevangelou reiterated today that the decline is not at the desired rate. On the contrary, despite the blockade, in some parts of the country there is an increase in cases.
He noted that it is likely, at least in part, to be due to some series of cases in various closed structures that significantly overload the epidemiological map.
As the average age of new cases rises, currently estimated at 48 years, the percentage of people 65 and older who got sick this week remains high.there are about 3,200 new cases in this age group-, which means that the NSS will continue to be under pressure. “And this pressure from the healthcare system continues to be critical,” said Ms Papaevangelou.
Stabilization of new patient admissions
Regarding new imports, there is some stabilization. Around 4,500 patients are currently being treated throughout Greece, more than 1/4 of them in Thessaloniki. However, based on the number of new cases, a decrease in new hospital admissions is expected over the next week.
All you know the fullness of ICUs, especially in northern Greece, and we saw for the first time these days and air transport of patients, said Ms. Papaevangelou. In the territory, the occupancy rate for ICU beds is currently 88%.
According to mathematical models, which are based on real epidemiological data, it is estimated that during the next two weeks, some 1,600 people will need hospitalization and 250 admissions to the ICU. And, unfortunately, the losses continue to mount: An average of 85 deaths a day was recorded last week.
“In conclusion, although we have a clear reduction in cases, this is happening at a slower rate than expected. The second pandemic wave does not say it will leave us and sadly, we expect continued pressure on the NSS in the next 7 to 14 days. “ He pointed out, summarizing the epidemiological picture of the country itself.
Regarding the gradual withdrawal of the measures, he stressed that the issue has not yet been discussed in the Commission and will be examined next week based on new epidemiological data, emphasizing that the pressure on the country’s ICU is an important criterion for decisions.
The hasty lifting of the measures will bring more deaths
And he referred to a forecasting model that made it public European Center for Infection Control at the beginning of the week, according to which a hasty lifting of the measures would lead to an immediate and abrupt increase in cases and consequently in hospitalizations and deaths.
“This is due to the great epidemiological burden of our cities, so the sooner the social distancing in which we live ends, the faster and more intense we will see the resurgence of the epidemic. “On the contrary, if the measures are lifted after the dispersion in the community has been further reduced, any increase in cases will be delayed and will be done at a slower pace,” he said.
“Certainly some activities of society will be opened, but without forgetting that we live in the center of a pandemic,” he concluded.
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