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But for this, many scientists consider it necessary to have the greatest possible transparency in advance about vaccinations, so as not to create a posterior “noise” that strengthens the anti-vaccination vision.
In this case, one of the things that needs more clarification is What exactly does that mean in clinical trials? The Pfizer / BioNTech and Moderna vaccines have been shown to be, more than expected, about 95% effective (while the Russian Sputnik-5 is more than 90%) and if this means that almost everyone who receives these vaccines they will be “invulnerable»Of the coronavirus.
“They are game-changing vaccines.” We all expected 50% to 70% efficacy, “vaccine researcher Dr. Gregory Poland of the Mayo Clinic told the New York Times.
But as scientific author, biologist, and NYT author Carl Zimmer points out, 95% efficiency in testing does not mean that it will be the same in practice after mass vaccinations. The efficiency of the test is a statistical indicator that results from specific mathematical calculations.
The pharmaceutical company vaccinate some people, while giving to others virtual vaccine (placebo), without any participant knowing whether they have actually been vaccinated or not (“blind” test).
Then vaccinated and pseudo-vaccinated people live their lives normally and the company monitors how many will show symptoms covid-19 and will be diagnosed positive in the coronavirus (170 people in the case of Pfizer / BioNTech). It then calculates what percentage of patients had been vaccinated and which had not, as well as the relative difference between the two percentages. In the case of both vaccines, the vast majority of those who became ill had not been vaccinated.
THE difference This, expressed as a percentage (eg 95%), shows efficacy and is a strong indication that the vaccine “works” well.
But, as experience with previous vaccines has shown, their efficacy tests is different from the effectiveness of a vaccine in real world (effectiveness) and it is important, according to experts, that these two types of effectiveness are not confused.
95% does not represent real probability Being infected with the coronavirus, nor is it equivalent in practice, as many mistakenly think, to the fact that 95 out of 100 people who will be vaccinated will certainly not become infected or sick.
“Efficacy shows how well the vaccine works outside of the real world,” said Naor Bar-Zeev, associate professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins University School of Public Health in Baltimore.
The effectiveness of coronavirus vaccines can be effective equally impressive in practice (effectiveness), but based on previous vaccination experience, it will probably be somewhat lower, how much is unknown. This is in part because the few thousand people who participate in clinical trials are not representative of the population.
For example, “out there” there are people with variety chronic health problems which can affect the effectiveness of the vaccine.
Asymptomatic unknown vaccinated
On the other hand, the Pfizer / BioNTech and Moderna vaccine trials, as well as others, were designed to show if they protect people of getting sick with covid-19. If a volunteer in the test had a fever or cough, get tested for the coronavirus. However, the tests did not “catch” those infected with the coronavirus, but without symptoms.
Therefore, it is possible that some people who were vaccinated in the trials, got infected but inadvertently neither themselves nor the pharmacists (who have no way of knowing, as they did not test everyone who participated in the tests for coronavirus after vaccination, but only those who showed symptoms along the way) .
If there are such cases of vaccination asymptomatic carriers of coronavirus, they can continue to transmit the virus, since it is known that asymptomatic patients are also contagious, although – according to some estimates – they have a lower viral load.
If, in fact, someone has been vaccinated and thinks recklessly now unlikely to get sick or not even get infected with the coronavirus, it will relax prevention measures, p. ex. no longer wearing a mask or keeping your distance from others.
“In this case, there could be a paradoxical situation, things could get worse,” warns Dr. Bar-Zeev, despite vaccination.
Other critical factor what will determine the actual effectiveness of the vaccine, what percentage of the population will. Scientists know that even a staggeringly effective vaccine can make little difference in the world if only a few people are vaccinated.
“Vaccines don’t save lives.” Vaccination programs save, “said Professor David Paltiel of the Yale University School of Public Health.
He conducted a recent modeling study published in the journal Health Affairs and concluded that, in terms of reduction In the cases, hospital admissions and deaths from covid-19, the scope of the vaccination program has the same effect as the effectiveness of the vaccine in the trials.
