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Can Thessaloniki have 355,200 cases of coronavirus (!)? Based on the important statement of the Minister of Health Vassilis Kikilias the day before yesterday that the “positivity” in the cases of the region is of the order of 32% given that its population is 1,100. 000 inhabitants? A report accompanied by estimates that one in three inhabitants of the co-capital is a carrier of the disease …
This question is posed by analysts of the spread of the pandemic based on the clear statement of the minister who referred to the relevant measurements of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki from the tests that have been carried out on citizens. Since this assessment raises obvious concerns for citizens, it can show elements of exaggeration and raises questions for many reasons.
The co-capital is known to have a strong epidemiological burden, but the estimate that 32% of the inhabitants are potential carriers raises fears of an unprecedented outbreak of cases and deaths.
With university bodies, however, noting that the positivity that Mr. Kikilias invoked refers to the tests carried out on the people who attended the examination and who already had some symptoms. And these conclusions have nothing to do with “open” rapid tests in various groups of citizens.
However, the specific estimate of 32% positivity in the coronavirus of the inhabitants of the co-capital has some important implications but also important gaps.
Thessaloniki and New York
FIRST: It seems that Thessaloniki is becoming an international “epicenter” of the corona virus where the world record is registered – it has not been observed in any other major city in the world – one in three inhabitants has been infected with the virus. With cases estimated at 32% of the population having terrifying power to infect an even higher percentage of residents of the “girlfriend of Thermaikos”, in a truly nightmarish “scenario”. 
However, it is observed, for example, that in New York, with a population of 8,500,000, the incidence of pandemics since the beginning of the year was 573,241, and the population of the wider area is estimated at 19,453,000 (approximately 3% of the total population).
It is also added that the tests that have been carried out are 15,904,266, a number that is obviously indicative and representative of the actual spread of the deadly virus.
EODY statistics
SECONDLY: Considering that the cases detected and registered by ΕΟΔΥ It is around 10-25% of those that actually exist in the so-called “open community” the number of 355,200 patients in Thessaloniki corresponds to about 35,000-50,000 cases that will be gradually identified and registered by EODY in the co-capital.
Something that shows, statistics and mathematics perhaps out of reality and with a great deviation. This is because so far in the co-capital, in the last 20 critical days, about 7,000 total cases have been identified, while according to the 32% version it should be four or five times.
This may also indicate that to get closer to the number of AUTh measurements cited by the minister, in the next few days Thessaloniki could launch the number of its new institutions to 2000-4000 per day. Which is shown based on the sequence of the number of new diagnoses as unlikely. And all this of course when since the beginning of the pandemic last year, cases throughout the country have reached about 63,500.
Nightmare scenario
IN THIRD PLACE: If we accept the existence of 35,000-50,000 that can be registered in total in Thessaloniki and given that according to epidemiologists the mortality rate reaches 1.5% -2% of cases, in the next few days in the co-capital there may be 700-1000 more dead. which also seems out of place – sad anyway – reality. And of course everyone expects something like this to be disproved …
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