[ad_1]
It is only a matter of time before Erdogan realizes that any attempt to circumvent the US system and its laws will not work. Even if he tries to “shape” Biden, Congress will not give him another moment and impose sanctions on him for activating the Russian S-400 missiles, says Michael Rubin, an analyst at one of Washington, DC’s most famous think tanks. from the American Enterprise Institute.
Rubin, who has been accused by Erdogan of supporting and committing atrocities in favor of the Gulenists, explains that fewer and fewer US legislators now support Turkish positions, and that even those who remain do not have much influence over foreign policy decisions of states. United.
He estimates that in the next six months, that is, at the end of Trump’s term and the first term of Biden’s term, during which he will be in “learning” mode, the risk of provoking a hot episode from Turkey to Greece is very high. As for the Gulf of Souda, he believes that it could become the new Incirlik of the Mediterranean region.
Interview with Giannis Mantzikos
– Given the fact that President Trump was accused of being too “soft” on Turkey, what could change with the Biden administration?
Recep Tayyip Erdogan will soon learn that his efforts to circumvent the laws and the US system are not going to work. For decades, the foundation of the relationship between the United States and Turkey has been multifaceted: Congress, military ties, intelligence sharing, diplomacy, and even through civil society.
Today, however, fewer and fewer US lawmakers support Turkish positions, and even those who remain do not have much influence on foreign policy decisions. The US military has not trusted Turkey for years, at a time when one of the most important debates in the corridors of the CIA is whether Hakan Fidan, Turkey’s intelligence chief, is likely to betray American secrets to the Iranians or the Islamic State. Even if Erdogan somehow managed to “shape” Biden, Congress will waste no more time imposing sanctions on him for activating the Russian S-400 missiles. Don’t forget that Erdogan has a major problem as the dollar-pound ratio will hit 15/1.
– Many analysts estimate that Erdogan will soften his aggressive policy in the Aegean under the Biden administration, do you agree with this opinion?
No. Certainly, the development of close military and strategic ties of the United States with Greece and Cyprus will continue. But even if Biden is unwilling to give Erdogan a “blank check,” that doesn’t mean he will be punished. There are still many people in the State Department who believe that exemplary punishment from Turkey for its actions will undermine any possible reconciliation after the Erdogan era. The greatest risk of an episode is the next six months, during the transition period between the end of Trump’s term and the first months of Biden, as the president’s team will still be in “learning” mode.
– In any case, what do you see in terms of an improvement in the role of Greece in US foreign policy?
I think that Greece is ready, the Gulf of Souda could become the new Incirilik, without nuclear weapons. The fact that Greece is a democracy plays a special role, since it is not an alliance out of necessity but a relationship with common values.
Given that Trump has withdrawn from the Near and Middle East, do you expect Biden’s foreign policy to be a repeat of the Obama era?
Some countries, namely Saudi Arabia and Israel, are pillars of our foreign policy.
Biden will also be trapped by his rhetoric about the need to distance himself from Russia. A new rapprochement with Iran may alienate many Arab Gulf states. And perhaps there is more pressure on human rights in Egypt. So I suspect he’s right: for the Middle East, Biden will be the new version of Obama’s policy.
– Do you see NATO playing different from now on? Will Biden pressure Germany to spend more on the alliance at a time when Russia’s risk is increasing for several alliance members?
Privately, even Trump’s harshest critics admit that he has managed to get NATO members to spend more. I don’t think Biden will continue to exert the same pressure, but at the same time he will confirm that the United States’ commitment to the alliance goes beyond money. But the biggest problem in NATO will remain Turkey, a country that has bought a Russian anti-missile system while wanting to remain a member of the alliance.
[ad_2]
