Ankara tries to take Athens hostage by Oruc Reis – His weapons to blackmail

Ankara is trying to take Greece hostage with the Oruc Reis tool, since with the latest extensions of illegal investigations, it systematically violates Greek sovereign rights, it is trying to cancel the country’s right to extend its territorial waters to 12 nautical miles . and it is dangerously close to the critical point of the violation of rights within the area demarcated by the Greece-Egypt Agreement, west of the 28th Meridian.

And as it seemed with the last NAVTEX that was published on Saturday night, a few hours after the telephone communication between K. Mitsotakis and T. Erdogan for the expression of solidarity after the catastrophic earthquake, Turkey sends the message that any rapprochement. of the communication channels between the two countries, does not affect or, of course, suspends the review agenda to the detriment of Greece.

At the same time, Turkey, which has the initiative of the movements as its attacker, keeps Athens on fire for fear of launching a new NAVTEX, while as soon as it considers that it serves its strategy, it will withdraw the research vessel, demanding an immediate start. negotiations, thus trapping Greece. which has stated that the talks may take place as soon as Oruc Reis’s investigations on the Greek continental shelf stop.

And so, there will be the risk of initiating exploratory contacts under pressure and the international factor with the Oruc Reis with engines running ready for the next challenge and while Turkey will have already registered in its arguments, the continuous two-month seismic studies in its region. a continental shelf that he declares Turkish and whose delimitation is precisely the object of exploration.

With the public debate that has preceded, in the end it can be considered as … a success that Turkey did not achieve at 6 in the morning. And exactly what Turkey wants to achieve is any negotiation that takes place with advance acceptance and ensuring the 6-hour limit. Greek coastal area.

The government, after the not so successful handling of the public debate on what the red lines are, must make it clear to the “mediators” that the withdrawal of Oruc Reis is not enough for the resumption of the Investigations, but there must be a clear commitment to That there will be new movements of this type for a reasonable period of time and then the talks will begin.

The next period is extremely crucial, as Turkey and Erdogan know that the time they have and the impunity they enjoy from the international community will not be inexhaustible. And in the meantime, they will look to close old accounts and open new ones where they feel they have been given the opportunity.

Oruc Reis’s investigations of the unlimited Greek continental shelf of the eastern Mediterranean violate international law that prohibits unilateral action in unlimited areas. At the same time, however, they affect the expectation of exercising the sovereign rights of Greece and obviously violate the ipso facto and ab initio (automatically and existing) rights that each coastal state has on its continental shelf, even if it is not delimited.

However, we must avoid getting caught up in statements that downplay the scale of the challenge with references to surveys in a demarcated area, as it is obvious that this argument could not be sustained if, for example, Turkey chose to conduct surveys in a demarcated area to 7 pm miles east of Evia, which legally and formally would be exactly the same as the surveys conducted by Oruc Reis 130 or 30 miles south of Kastelorizo.

The possible violation of 6 nm will be an invasion since the coastal zone is a zone of exercise of absolute sovereignty and not only of sovereign rights, but this does not mean that the violation by Turkey of the 6-12 m zone. it is a “neutral” movement, of the same importance as the offense, p. ex. 50 or 30 miles.

Because with the entrance of Oruc Reis in an area below 12 m. As happened in the Megisti complex and the overlap of an area 6 miles from Ro in the last Turkish NAVTEX, Turkey is essentially trying to cancel Greece’s right to exercise its right to extend its sovereignty by extending the coastal zone to 12 miles.

The discussion of the “red lines” does not make sense, it only exposes those who invoke them, since the way of reaction to a possible Turkish invasion of territorial waters is evident, and the respective government must also feel comfortable choosing and seeking a balance between diplomacy and military deterrence, in order to prevent damage to the country’s interests on an indefinite continental shelf, or to declare and record in some way that the conduct of the investigations does not lead to a legal result, nor is of course accepted.

Especially when military action in such an area is not legitimized by international law.

Turkey still has enough weapons to blackmail:

– Publication of the permits for the investigations requested by TRAO as of May 30, on Parcels that have been illegally traced by Turkey based on the Turkolyvik Memorandum and that reach the territorial water limit of 6 m. east of the islands (Rhodes – Karpathos – Kasos – Crete). This movement west of the 28th meridian will be a direct challenge to the sovereign rights of Greece in a limited area of ​​the continental shelf, according to the Agreement with Egypt. Also in this case, the response of Athens should be such as to reject Turkey’s attempt to impose de facto the Turkish-Turkish Memorandum on the Greek-Egyptian Agreement at the point where they overlap.

– In Tripoli, the formal decision is pending for the announcement of the granting of licenses for the joint exploration of the Libyan oil company and the Turkish TRAO on the Libyan continental shelf in an area defined by the Turkolyvik Memorandum, south or southeast of Crete. In this case, Turkey will present the Tripoli government with which Greece has no relation and will probably use this role amid investigative pressure, claiming that it is not he who breaks the commitment to avoid provocative maneuvers, since the investigations concern στην Libya.

– Turkey’s shipment of a drilling rig in the area south of Kastelorizo ​​and between Kastelorizo ​​and Rhodes is stable, but in areas where it has carried out two-dimensional surveys, so it will take some time to process this data and continue three-dimensional surveys. before a drilling rig is dispatched to the area, which obviously can no longer be addressed like seismic surveys, as it involves intervention on the seabed and causes permanent deterioration or damage …

With Turkey after the open conflict with Paris and the EU, almost all communication channels, even indirect ones, have been cut and it is obvious that Erdogan now has the US elections as a timestamp, as a possible election will put Biden in temptation of the Turkish leader to accelerate the implementation of his review agenda in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean.