What does the Tatar victory in the occupied territories mean for the Cyprus question: the end of the Bi-Zonal Bicommunal Federation? | POLITICS

The Bi-Zonal Bicommunal Federation has been the agreed framework for solving the Cyprus problem since 1977.

All negotiations were carried out within this framework. All the leaders, Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots, formally at least, were committed to the solution on this basis.

After 43 years of many negotiations on “shipwrecks” and the rejection of the Annan plan in a referendum in 2004, a politician in the northern part of the island is emerging as a leader who rejects the prospect of a bicommunal bizone federation and speaks openly of a “two-state” solution. This is the most important dimension of the election of Ersin Tatar in the occupied areas of Cyprus.

New strategy on the Cyprus question

The new Turkish Cypriot leader is fully in line with Turkey’s new policy on the Cyprus issue, as expressed since the last negotiator “shipwreck” in the summer of 2017, in Crans Montana. This new policy consists of rejecting the bicommunal bizone federation and the search for a “new formula” for the Cyprus question, that is, a confederation or a two-state solution. Both Recep Tayyip Erdo .an and Mevlüt Çavuşoλουlu have recently repeated this position. The Turkish Foreign Minister, in fact, claims that he has informally discussed this perspective with Nikos Anastasiadis, a claim that is refuted by the President of the Republic of Cyprus.

The last obstacle for Ankara was Mustafa Akinci. Until yesterday, the leader of the Turkish Cypriot community insisted until the end on the need for a solution based on the bizone bi-communal federation, aware that any other form of solution carries risks of absorption of the Turkish Cypriots by Turkey.

Yesterday’s victory for Tatar with 51% is due to three main factors:

First, in the strong intervention of Turkey. Erdogan wanted at all costs to finish off the “rebel” Akinci. Ankara’s interventions in these elections surpassed all previous ones, while there were complaints and even vote buying. As academic Nikos Moudouros explained, in his interview with iefimerida.gr, Tatar now allows Turkey to include the northern part of Cyprus in its new geopolitical strategy.

SecondlyThe Tartar victory was based on their strong support from the colonists. It was characteristic that Akinci won in Nicosia, Morphou and Lefka, lost marginally in Kyrenia and was clearly defeated in Famagusta. The final result, however, was judged mainly by the large difference (70% -30%) with which Ersin Tatar won in the Trikomo area, where the largest volume of settlers reside.

In third placeThe stalemate in the field of negotiations on the Cyprus issue and the lack of initiative on the part of the Greek Cypriot showing the prospect of a solution also contributed to the dominance of Tatar. Akinji was chosen in 2015 as a candidate for a solution. With the “wreck” at Crans Montana and negotiations “on ice” since the summer of 2017, Akinci lost momentum. At the same time, the Turkish Cypriots continued to feel isolated from the international community, strengthening Turkey’s role in the occupied territories.

That will be born

a) The UN Secretary General has already announced that after the “elections” he will call on interested parties to resume negotiations. It is understood that the conditions under which the new effort is restarted are not favorable. If Tatar and Ankara insist on rejecting the bizone bi-communal federation, they will seek a two-state or confederation solution, most likely without territorial changes.

“I am ready for negotiations based on the realities of the island,” the new Turkish Cypriot leader said in a solemn speech on Sunday night. This position will create new deadlocks, which no Greek Cypriot leader can accept. Time will once again run in Ankara’s favor, as its achievements and aspirations on the island will be consolidated.

b) In the gas field, Turkey and the new Turkish Cypriot leader will claim a stake, probably proceeding with new actions within the Cypriot EEZ. In the next period, we are expected to see new Turkish drilling and research platforms in the parts of the Cypriot EEZ.

c) It is very likely that Ersin Tatar wants to take advantage of the momentum and immediately call “parliamentary” elections to form a new “government”, since the previous one was dissolved after the departure of Oserzai’s party. Tatar’s goal is total domination of the Turkish Cypriot political scene, a fact that opens the door to all Turkish interventions, economically, socially and politically.