[ad_1]
With Donald Trump in the hospital with COVID-19 (even if it comes out, as he announced) and only a month away from the US presidential election, the practice of writing scripts becomes a bit macabre, but the urgency of the circumstances dictates it.
As long as we keep two things in mind: first, Trump’s personality is so special, but also the cult that inspires his voters, that it is impossible to predict with certainty the political consequences of the multi-dimensional thriller that he lives today. UNITED STATES. Furthermore, no sane person would wish for Trump’s death: not only for moral reasons, but also because he would automatically become a “witness.”
Scenario 1 (most likely): Donald Trump develops only mild symptoms and recovers quickly
There is no transfer of power. Donald Trump delegates if he wants more responsibilities to Vice President Mike Pence and his entourage. His doctors, of course, quarantine him, but it ends before the election, and the electoral process continues normally: Trump simply cancels scheduled rallies for the duration of the quarantine.
Political consequences: More for Trump, the chapter of sympathy that has been assured and, among his followers, the image of the “lion” that domesticated COVID-19. With the exception of the coronavirus, it is now the main topic of the election campaign. So, in addition to the catastrophic management of the pandemic, the irresponsibility displayed by Trump and Xia before becoming infected is coming back to the fore.
Scenario 2: Trump is seriously ill
The 25th Amendment to the United States Constitution is clear: if he cannot fulfill his duties, the president can temporarily transfer power to the vice president.
It already happened in 1985, 2002 and 2007, always for medical reasons. This transfer can also be imposed (in the case, for example, that the president suddenly falls into a coma) by the vice president, provided the decision is ratified by the majority of the Council of Ministers or a group appointed by Congress. It has never happened. However, the electoral process would continue normally.
Political consequences: a serious illness would not allow Trump to recover to 100% before the election. And, despite the chapter of sympathy that would accumulate, doubts about his health likely prevailed among voters. 
Scenario 3: Trump resigns or dies before or between the election and December 14
Mike Pence immediately becomes president. If it also fails, Speaker of Parliament (Democrat) Nancy Pelosi will take over. The Republican National Committee could meet urgently to nominate a new presidential candidate, likely Pence. In most states, however, it is too late to change the ballots. Theoretically, elections can be delayed by congressional decision, but the margins are narrow: according to the Constitution, the new president must be sworn in on January 20. Another scenario of chaos: the elections are carried out normally, Trump wins but dies before December 14, when the new president is officially elected by the House of Representatives and the Republican National Committee asks his voters to vote for him. Pence.
Political consequences: Democrats are fighting with all their might to avoid such a “choice” of Pence. A serious political crisis is shaking the country.
Scenario 4: Trump dies after December 14 but before January 6
Voters vote for the new president on December 14 and Congress ratifies their vote on January 6. If Congress rejects the House of Representatives decision on Trump’s death, the House of Representatives could step in and elect the next president, according to a voting system (each state delegation has one vote) that would jeopardize offering a majority to Republicans.
Political consequences: No one dares to imagine chaos if Republicans use this ploy in Congress to impose their candidate. 
Scenario 5: Trump is reelected and dies after Congress ratifies the election result
The situation is clear: even if Trump’s death occurs between January 6 (ratification) and January 20 (inauguration), the president of the United States, Mike Pence, will take office.
[ad_2]
