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The international community observes them with particular concern. Armed conflicts caused by the Azeris attack on the Armenians Nagorno-Karabakh. Today’s de facto borders were formed nearly three decades ago. The Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh dates back to the beginning of the 20th century. The area was predominantly Armenian, but within the Soviet Union it was territorially annexed to Azerbaijan.
In 1991, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, A full-scale war broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan, during which the Armenians took control of the disputed area, as well as the Azeri areas around Nagorno-Karabakh. The Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh approved in a referendum the declaration of the region as an independent state, which, however, was not recognized internationally. It survives and communicates with the rest of the world exclusively through it. From armenia, of which it is essentially an extension.
The conflicts of the last days arouse fears of its possible evolution towards generalized Azerbaijan-Armenian war. There have been heated incidents since the decade, but “we have not seen anything like this since the ceasefire reached in the 1990s. The fighting is taking place on all fronts,” said Alessia Vartanian, Crisis Group senior analyst at the region. of the South Caucasus.
It should be noted that the The Caucasus is another area of geopolitical rivalry between Russia and Turkey, as is the case in Syria and Libya. Moscow has formed an alliance with Armenia and maintains military bases there. On the other hand, the Turkey-Azerbaijan relationship is more than an alliance. In essence, Azerbaijan identifies with Ankara, which acts as its “protector” when dealing with them. Azeris of Turkish origin as a sister nation.
It is assumed that the The Azeri attack was carried out with Erdogan’s permission, if not at your instigation. On the contrary, the Kremlin, which has called for an immediate ceasefire, has said that it supports Azerbaijan. The Turkish president, in fact, demanded the immediate withdrawal of the Armenians from the territories of Azerbaijan that they occupied three decades ago. For his part, the Minister of National Defense, Hulusi Akar, said that Turkey stands with its Azeri brothers in the defense of their territories.
It is a fact that Armenia will be directly involved in the war, if the Azeri attack escalates and endangers Nagorno-Karabakh. Due to its energy resources, Azerbaijan has the financial capacity and has seriously strengthened the combat readiness of its armed forces by purchasing modern weapons systems (including Russian). On the contrary, Armenia does not have significant financial resources.
This practically means that a war between Azerbaijan and Armenia will depend on many factors. In fact, the information that Turkey constantly sends experienced jihadists (from Syria and Libya) to the Nagorno-Karabakh front is de facto poses dilemmas for Moscow. Although so far it has maintained a moderate stance, flying the flag of escalation of the conflict, it is a fact that it will not tolerate a military victory by the Azeris over the Armenians. If this happened, Turkey would gain a significant geopolitical advantage in the South Caucasus, which is Russia’s “soft belly”. And as he had shown in the case of Georgia under President Saakashvili, Putin will not allow such a development. In other words, if the conflict turns into a war, the Russians are expected to support the Armenians.
The sudden resurgence of a frozen war front on Azeri initiative does not appear to be irrelevant to Ankara’s plans and expediencies. It is not excluded, in fact, be linked to developments in the Eastern Mediterranean. It is estimated that Erdogan may seek to “sell” to the US and NATO that if he wants he can crush Russia and Turkey remains a bulwark in Russia’s descent to the south.
Ankara opens this new front at a time when is exposed on many fronts around it and it has also caused intense unrest in western capitals, although we cannot yet speak of diplomatic isolation. It is indicative that The Turkish pound continues its rapid decline dropping to a record level. The exchange rate of the Turkish currency plummeted 1.5%, and now has an exchange rate of 7.79 pounds to the dollar. The prices of government dollar bonds issued by Azerbaijan and Armenia fell between 3 and 4 cents.
Despite the lionesses of Turkey, your economy is on its knees and the fronts in Iraq and northern Syria, its military involvement in Libya, its piracy in Cyprus and the potential Greek EEZ are exacerbating the climate. Unless the West is quick to “buy” what Erdogan is trying to “sell” it, then the series will have other interesting episodes.
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