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On a very symbolic day, the anniversary of the start of the war between Armenia and Turkey in 1920, Azerbaijan launched an extensive military offensive against the Armenians of Artsakh, specifically in Nagorno-Karabakh. An area that has long been separated from Azerbaijan, despite not being recognized as a de jure independent democracy by the UN. This new round of fighting is not lightning in the air. It is an escalation of what happened last July, which then ended with a victory for the Armenians.
So what is the difference between what is happening in Nagorno-Karabakh in the last hours? Turkey’s transfer to the area of weapons units and hundreds of men, mostly mercenaries from Syria. For several weeks, Ankara, under the pretext of joint secondary schools between Azeris and Turks, has been transferring, not secretly, but publicly, military forces to the territory of Azerbaijan. And it is significant that the correspondents of the Turkish state news agency Anadolu and TRT World were present in the early hours of the morning in the Artsakh region.
For several hours, in addition to the war in the trenches, a propaganda war has been fought. Azerbaijan claims to have occupied a number of border villages, while Armenians refute the allegations and post videos of how to shoot down enemy helicopters, drones and destroy armor.
The attitude of Russia, a traditional ally of the Armenians, is a big question mark. In the Nagorno-Karabakh war in the 1990s, Moscow openly supported the Armenians, when Turkey also openly sided with the Azeris. In short, another zone of confrontation between Russia and Turkey is added, in addition to those of Libya and Syria. In the latest, Russian planes are bombing Idlib, near the Turkish military observatories.
The reconquest of Artsakh by the Azeris has always been a goal of the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev. But the attack, especially on the anniversary of the start of the war between Armenia and Turkey in 1920, is linked to the influence of Ankara. The expansion and revisionism of Ankara, in addition to northern Iraq, Syria and Libya, is also manifested in the Caucasus.
It is trying to strengthen its negotiating roles against Moscow, against which it has many open fronts, like the previous one. It expects from the Azeri “brothers” (“one nation-two states) not only the defeat of a historical enemy, namely the Armenians, but also the increase of their negotiating position against Russia on the other fronts of Syria and Libya.” And it remains to be seen whether Turkey views the Caucasus and the eastern Mediterranean as communicating vessels.
In the next few hours and days we should expect more dynamic participation from the Russians, as in the past, to at least secure a fragile ceasefire. Otherwise, there is a risk of a general fire in the Caucasus with the participation even of the Russian military forces based in Armenia.
* Dr. Spyros Plakoudas is Assistant Professor of National Security at Rabdan Academy and Vice President of KEDISA
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