Manolis Dermitzakis: Very close to the closure in Attica if stricter measures are not taken

Manolis Dermitzakis, Professor of Genetics at the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Geneva, is ringing the bell that if we do not urgently take increasingly courageous measures in relation to what will be applied from today, then the scenario of a lockdown gets even closer.

It talks about masks everywhere, both indoors and outdoors, and an increase in the telecommuting rate of more than 40% of employees, which is valid as of today. Otherwise, he believes that the daily number of cases will not decrease and then we will have to go to a lockdown, at least in Athens, to leave them below 50 detectable per day.

“If we go into winter with 300-400 boxes a day, then we will have big problems,” he says and gives a small margin of a few weeks at most until the end of October.

Interview with Vassilis Georgas

– In the last 24 hours we see not only a constant increase in cases, but also an increase in intubated patients and deaths. Are the measures that will take effect from tomorrow sufficient to prevent sparks from exploding?

At the moment, more measures are required immediately, that is, in the next few days, and even in the future. For example, a simple measure that should have been implemented a long time ago, is the masks everywhere in the center of Athens.

Masks everywhere, both indoors and outdoors. And this for two reasons: on the one hand so that there are no transmissions even outdoors, on the other hand so that there are no discounts on the use of the mask where it should be. And monitoring such a measure is very simple. Anyone traveling without a mask is illegal. Therefore, it is fined.

– You said other measures should be imposed. What do you mean ;

I mean that the teleworking rate should be increased to more than 40% of the workforce, as announced. In general, I think that what is needed is a lot of new and fast measures. The few meters will slow down the increase in cases or slow down the transmission speed. As for the curfew, I’m afraid it won’t work. It is true that there will be protests and great problems in general in the management of such a measure.

– If the increase continues, is it a blockage in a way? And how long do we have to do it before we close?

Yes, if this situation continues we will go to closing. Since we will not be able to reduce the cases with other measures, we must urgently resort to a lockdown to lower the daily growth rate. That is, throw them below 50 detectable so that we can enter winter with much better conditions. If we go into winter with 300 to 400 boxes per day, then we will have big problems.

We are currently facing a situation like the one in March trying to avoid the blockade. We need to find as many sustainable measures as we can. In practice, the next few weeks are a dress rehearsal for winter that will make things more difficult. Our goal should be to reduce cases significantly and have a framework of sustainable, albeit extreme, behavior that we can apply in the winter.

– What time frame do we have in front of us, to avoid confinement?

I think we have 4-5 weeks. From the end of October to the beginning of November. At the latest until the rains start, the temperature drops and that forces us to do more indoor activities.

– In the scenario where the new measures are not taken, which, as you say, are necessary, is the confinement scenario unidirectional?

Yes, this is my prediction, that we will be brought to a standstill. I would like the measures we have taken and what will apply to work from today, but I fear that there is a high possibility that it will not be enough. Therefore, if this does not happen, then the blockade must be implemented, at least in Athens, to drastically reduce the cases with all the consequences that this has, mainly in financial terms.

I would not like us to end up in quarantine, but to find a solution before we arrive. However, in these circumstances, unless we take more courageous immediate measures than those announced and which will take effect today, the scenario is more likely to lead to a lockdown than otherwise. I hope to be wrong

AP Photo

* Manolis Dermitzakis is professor of genetics at the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Geneva.