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As an “extreme meteorological phenomenon that brings very high levels of rain but also winds with speeds greater than 120 km / h” and needs the attention of all citizens during its appearance, the Research Director of the National Observatory of Athens described to Newsbomb.gr . (meteo.gr) Costas Lagouvardos, he mediterranean cyclone “Janos”, which is expected to hit a significant part of our country in the next twenty-four hours
Mr. Lagouvardos described “Janos” as dangerous, as it brings very strong winds and creates Very strong ripples on the banks and gives high heights of rain.
As he pointed out, the first areas that are expected to be confronted with it mediterranean cyclone they are the Ionian Islands, especially in the southern part of the sea, and the western Peloponnese areas.
Details what Mr. Lagouvardos said to Newsbomb.gr:
What is a Mediterranean cyclone and what are its characteristics?
The Mediterranean cyclone is a low barometric pressure, which is like the other low barometric currents in the Mediterranean Sea. The main characteristic of this phenomenon is that it looks more like a tropical cyclone. That is, it has an “eye” and around it are neural growths, which create spiral “bands” around its center.
This is an extremely deep low, that is, the pressure in the center is very low, resulting in very strong winds and of course very heavy rain. We would say that it is the miniature of a tropical cyclone.
The Director of Research of the National Observatory of Athens, Costas Lagouvardos
How dangerous is such a meteorological phenomenon?
Like any low barometric effect of the classics presented, one Mediterranean cyclone It is also dangerous, because it brings very strong winds and creates very strong waves and gives high heights of rain.
Mediterranean cyclones are relatively rare, we have one or two a year somewhere in the Mediterranean. The most recent occurred two years ago and even affected our country at the end of September 2018. It moved northeast to Greece and actually had very high levels of rainfall. We had more than 400mm of rain in some areas of Fthiotida and even then we had four deaths from bad weather.
What is the speed of the winds in such phenomena?
In the case of the Mediterranean cyclone we are talking about speeds that exceed 120 km / h, perhaps with a medium wind, with much greater gusts. Of course, the winds weaken when the phenomenon falls on land, as is the case with the classic tropical cyclones that we have in the United States. However, there are many waves on the coasts, but the biggest problem with this type of phenomenon is the very heavy rains.
The specific cyclone, “Janos”, formed in the Gulf of Sirte, north of Libya, in the last 48 hours. We are waiting to see if it will get stronger, although from the looks of it, it gets strong enough, it has many storms around it, which contribute to it getting even stronger and now it is moving northeast towards our country.
According to the latest weather forecasts, which areas of Greece will be faced mainly with “Ianos”?
According to the latest forecasts, and I emphasize this, these are the areas of the Ionian and the western Peloponnese. This was the case last time. Beyond that and precisely because there is an interaction with the earth, it is possible that its course and trajectory differ from what was expected.
At this point I would like to make a small but important parenthesis. Not all weather models predict the same track every day. There are many meteorological models that we use and other services and we see that a cyclone is really created, moving in our country. At first, many agree that it will come from the southern Ionian, from there, but the movement of the phenomenon is different. And a variation in its orbit of 50 km, at these scales does not seem very large, but in fact it is, because it can affect very different areas.
Most scenarios show that “Janos” is expected to affect the center and south of the country in the next twenty-four hours. including Attica. However, there are scenarios that say that the northern part of the country may be affected. Therefore, there is concern that problems may arise in other areas as well.
I estimate that on Thursday, when the cyclone has reached the Ionian, we will have a better image of its orbit, especially on Friday and Saturday.
How long are the extreme weather events that follow the Mediterranean cyclone expected to last?
When it comes to a Mediterranean cyclone, we are definitely talking about a phenomenon whose consequences will definitely last two days. That is, definitely Friday and Saturday and towards Sunday. However, there are different predictions about the path that the cyclone will follow. The only sure thing I can tell you is that the phenomenon it will affect us for at least 48 hours.
I remind you that in the case of the storm “Xenophon” that we had on September 28, 2018, which was then a Mediterranean cyclone and had once again affected our country, it had bothered us for about two days then.
As then, we now expect very high levels of rainfall, which I believe will create problems again, as long as the orbit of “Janos” remains in what meteorologists observe in terms of its evolution, that is, in our latest simulations and models. .
How are these extreme weather events related to climate change?
With regard to Mediterranean cyclones, for at least the last 20 years that we have observed them systematically, there has been no increase in these phenomena numerically. It is estimated that we have an average of one to two cyclones of this type each year. These are rare phenomena.
However, because one of the reasons for their creation is that they need warm seas to grow, in the future climate where we will expect higher temperatures, we would say that this could lead to their growth. On the other hand, however, it is not the only factor, as there must be other reasons, such as a disturbance in the upper atmosphere, which creates the initial conditions, for the renal mass to begin to swirl. We have indications, but no evidence of how such phenomena can develop in the future.
What areas will “Janos” hit?
Apart from the heavy rains, “Ianos” will be accompanied by very stormy winds, while it will also affect Attica.
More analytically, according to EMY, intense phenomena are predicted:
Thursday (09-17-2020) in the afternoon, in the southern Ionian and the Peloponnese mainly in its western part.
Factory (09-18-2020) in southern Ionian, the Peloponnese, Sterea (including Attica) and Evia. Starting in the afternoon in the west the effects will weaken, while in the afternoon the western Cyclades will be affected. In the Peloponnese and eastern Sterea, the phenomena will be very strong.
On Saturday (19-09-2020) the intense phenomena will affect eastern Peloponnese and eastern Sterea, the Cyclades and possibly Crete. Starting at noon, the eastern mainland and eastern Peloponnese will gradually weaken.
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