A clear European message to Turkey after repeated challenges: Athens examines escalation scenarios



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Following the escalation of the Turkish provocation, with the war chants of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, the provocative reports on the armored movement in Evros and the successive NAVTEX allowing the Oruc Reis and the Greek warships to cross the Turkish border. , many EU actors wanted to send a clear and forceful message to Ankara about the need to reduce tensions, proposing sanctions.

At the same time, Athens continues to focus on possible escalation scenarios for Turkish activities a short distance from Kastellorizo ​​after September 12, shortly before the EU Summit scheduled for 24-25.

Meanwhile, within the country, according to the GPO survey for The New Weekend, there appears to be concern about a serious incident with Turkey and doubts that European partners will impose economic sanctions on Turkey.

Athens is examining the climbing scenarios

Athens is examining the scenarios for the possibility of Ankara escalating its challenges.

The focus is on the possibility of expanding the activities of Oruc Reis one step away from Kastellorizo ​​after 12 September and with a view to the EU Summit.

Currently the Turkish investigation and accompanying warships are located at a distance of 35 nautical miles from Kastellorizo ​​and the scenarios under consideration are related to:

  • with the possibility of expanding the existing NAVTEX further north, blocking an area that will include part of the Greek continental shelf between 6 and 12 nm from Kastellorizo
  • the possibility of issuing permits from the Turkish Ministry of Energy for TRAO investigations in the areas of the Turkish-Libyan memorandum, which could bring Turkish forces even six miles east of Rhodes, Kasos, Karpathos and Crete, an area adjacent to the area Delimitation of the EEZ with Egypt, something that will involve Cairo in the conflict
  • the possibility of moving the Oruc Reis to a distance possibly equal to or less than six miles from Kastellorizo, which will be within the Turkish continental shelf.

What public opinion thinks

At the same time, the prolonged tension in Greek-Turkish creates dilemmas.

According to the GPO survey for “The New Weekend”, Greek society seems prepared and urges dialogue with the neighbor (68.8%), in order to find a diplomatic solution to the dispute, but at the same time prepares to a hot episode in the Aegean (63.7%) and for a military response (accepted by 49.2% of respondents versus 47.1%), if the Turkish challenges reach the point of no return.

In particular, 63.7% of those surveyed consider that a serious incident with Turkey is very or quite probable. In fact, 55.1% consider it unlikely that European partners will proceed with European sanctions against Turkey.

Phone call from Charles Michel to Erdogan

The full solidarity of the European Union in Greece and Cyprus was expressed by the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, in a telephone conversation he had with Recep Tayyip Erdogan today, a European official said.

According to the same official, Charles Michel stressed the importance of the de-escalation and called on Turkey to refrain from activities that increase tensions.

At the same time, the President of the European Council, calling a multilateral conference, points out that current disputes can be resolved through dialogue.

Erdogan’s complaints to Merkel

Apart from his rhetoric of war directed at the ears within his country, Tayyip Erdogan expressed to Angela Merkel his complaints about the attitude of France.

According to the Open newsletter, during the telephone conversation that Merkel had with Erdogan, the issue of the Eastern Mediterranean was discussed and, according to the information, the Turkish president made big complaints about France, telling Merkel that doing something for herself so that France does not get caught in the footsteps of Turkey and the Eastern Mediterranean.

In essence, he asked him what job the French aircraft carrier “Charles de Gaulle” had to land in the eastern Mediterranean and by what right was France “at the feet of Turkey”.

The German chancellor responded that she would seek to speak with French President Emanuel Macron to resolve the issue, but also with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis to start talks immediately. Merkel then promised Erdogan that they would speak again after she had contacted Macron and Mitsotaki.

A clear message from France

Next, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian sent a clear message to Turkey. “The scope of the measures to be taken against Turkey” is expected to be the main topic of the European Council discussions later this month, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said today, as Ankara continues its provocative attitude towards in Greece and Cyprus.

He said that he and his counterparts in other EU countries have discussed this issue, while the European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell, has mentioned the possibility of imposing sanctions on Ankara, but so far Paris has not managed to persuade other countries of the bloc to adopt the same strict position.

According to the APE – BPE, Lentrian asked the Turkish president to start talks on his plans in the Eastern Mediterranean from now until the convergence of the European Council on September 24 and 25.

“It is up to the Turks to show that this issue can be discussed.” If this is done, we can create a virtuous circle for all problems on the table, “Lendrian told France Inter radio.

Although he declined to specify the type of sanctions Ankara could face, the French minister said “there is a whole range of measures.”

“We have a lot of options and he knows it,” he said, referring to Erdogan.

Repeated messages from Austria

A very clear message to Ankara that “Austria will continue to speak quite clearly when Turkey violates international law, violates human rights, freedom of the media and the rule of law, or uses refugees and migrants as a means of pressure. “. , sent today the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Austria, Alexander Salenberg.

In an interview with the Austrian News Agency (APA), Alexander Salenberg refutes the attack previously launched by his Turkish counterpart Mevlüt Çavuşoλουlu against Austria’s Federal Chancellor Sebastia.

At the same time, in yesterday’s interviews, the Austrian Chancellor had denounced as “absolutely unacceptable” Turkey’s use of immigrants as a weapon against Europe and its violation of international law against Greece by drilling into Greek territory.

At the same time, he called on the European Union to “finally gain the courage to resist Erdogan and not allow either the exploitation of refugees as a weapon or the violations of international law by the Turkish president.”

Sebastian Kurtz warned that “if we accept everything, if we are not in solidarity with Greece, then this will allow someone like Erdogan to continue and constantly push the limits, and that is dangerous in the medium term.”

Italy: potential threat from Turkey

Italian Defense Minister Lorenzo Guerini, during his participation in a debate at the summer festival of the center-left Democratic Party, referred to the attitude of the Turkish government, in the eastern Mediterranean and in particular towards Greece.

“Turkey’s resolve is a potential threat, given the escalation of tensions it may pose.” In recent weeks, we have had moments of critical and substantial maximum tension between Turkey and Greece, which have also sparked tensions with France, “said the Italian Defense Minister.

Lorenzo Guerini then added: “Turkey’s behavior is an element of difficulty that we must address through dialogue. Something that the Atlantic Alliance must do. And on the inside, Italy tried to play a balanced role. To seek balance.”

Diplomatic fever on the Greek side

All this, given the vital French support for the Turkish aggression, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis is betting a lot on his meeting with Emanuel Macron in Paris on September 10, prior to the summit of the countries of the South organized by the French president in Corsica

At this meeting, the two leaders are expected to discuss the whole framework of the joint position of Greece and France against Turkey, given that Recep Tayyip Erdogan is now openly attacking Paris. The prime minister’s intention is to underline to Macron the need for a common line in the EU towards Turkey’s intransigent stance.

At the same time, the face-to-face discussion of the two leaders is expected to focus on the defense pact under discussion between the two countries. The behind-the-scenes consultations (advanced and high-level) have pushed the issue to the final stretch and seek to end the signatures of Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Emanuel Macron on a defense deal.

Meanwhile, the Greek government is expected to make corrective suggestions on NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s proposals for a Greek-Turkish dialogue at the meeting of NATO Permanent Representatives on Wednesday in Brussels.

There, the Greek side will present the proposed amendments to the Stoltenberg proposals.

Meanwhile, the NATO secretary general is expected to have new phone contacts with both the Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias and his Turkish counterpart Melvut Tsavousoglou.

In addition, Charles Michel will initiate a series of visits to European capitals in the eastern Mediterranean, as part of the Summit on September 24. The president of the European Council will initiate contacts in Athens, Cyprus and possibly Ankara next week to advance his proposal for a multilateral conference on the situation on the eastern borders of Europe.

Michel wants to avoid blocking the debate and that is why he wants to put Greece, Cyprus, Turkey, but also Germany and France on the table to promote dialogue and avoid sanctions in Turkey.



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