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In the middle of the summer season and with tourism we managed to limit it Second wave, which began at the end of July, the Associate Professor of Epidemiology-Preventive Medicine of the EKPA School of Medicine and member of the Expert Committee of the Dimitris Paraskevi.
The renowned epidemiologist claims that there is the possibility of a third, fourth or even fifth epidemic wave, if conditions permit. However, he points out that the epidemiological curve shows a stabilizing trend for about 20 days and expects a reduction in cases in September. “Due to the return of tourists from their vacations, provided, however, that they comply with the measures and no further transmissions occur.” At the same time, he does not hide his concern about the increase in cases in nursing homes and closed accommodation structures, for which, as he says, they will take meters.
Regarding the fullness of ICU beds, Mr. Paraskevi states that it is around 30% in Attica and Thessaloniki. “Something that gives us optimism that we will be able to deal effectively with a third wave to come in the fall or winter, but we all have to be careful, because if the number of cases increases a lot and sharply, the number of cases will increase accordingly. they will reduce occupancy rates and manageability. “
by asymptomatic, which since the beginning of the pandemic, all modeling studies show that they transmit, the professor points out that according to a recent study it is estimated at around ¼ of all cases. “Right now we need to have around 3,000 active cases diagnosed in the community. The actual ones can be around 10,000 in size.”
Below is the full text of the interview granted by the associate professor of Epidemiology – Preventive Medicine Dimitris Paraskevi, the Fm Agency and the journalist Tania I. Mantouvalou
Q: Where is the epidemiological curve at the moment?
Ap: It has been showing a stabilizing trend for about twenty days and the good news is that in mid-summer we had tourism, we managed to reduce the second wave, which began at the end of July. On the other hand, we must emphasize that there are several cases in the community and we must comply with the measures and continue to be careful so that no more transmission occurs, especially to vulnerable groups.
Q: Is there a possibility of a third wave? What do the models it processes say?
Ap: There is the possibility of a third, even fourth or even fifth epidemic wave and apparently for this virus it does not present the same seasonality as the influenza virus for example. This means that at any moment if conditions permit, we can have a new epidemic wave.
Q: What are these conditions that will determine the arrival of a new wave?
Ap: If we follow the measures, if we have a large number of cases in the community. In the summer the main parameter that led to the second wave was relaxation, and also the fact that we had an increase in imported cases in the community, which also played a role in terms of dispersion.
Q: What is the number of cases that will signal an alarm that the health system is under pressure?
Ap: There are several indicators that we process daily and weekly. Regarding the health system, the indicators that are of interest are the number of patients, the availability of beds related to Covid cases, as well as the availability of beds in the ICU, so that we can know how well we are in a position. to deal with an increase in cases in the future.
Q: What are these critical numbers right now?
Of: They are currently low. The capacity of ICU beds is approximately 30% in Attica and Thessaloniki. Which gives us optimism that we will be able to deal effectively with an impending third wave in the fall or winter, but we all need to be careful, because if the number of cases increases dramatically, the rates will increase accordingly. coverage and the ability to manage cases will be reduced.
Q: I will repeat the question: What is the number of cases that will signal high risk?
Of: The number of cases is not an absolute indicator. There are several indicators that we are seeing. They are the age groups, if we have confluences, if they are located in a geographical area, etc.
Q: How do you explain the fact that as cases increase, intubations are less, compared to the first phase of the pandemic? Does it have to do with age?
Of: First of all, let us clarify that the number of cases in summer is not completely comparable to that of March and April, because we are now performing a much greater number of diagnostic tests. However, the answer to your question is that we now have more cases at a younger age. Therefore, symptoms are milder at a young age and the need for ICU treatment is much less.
Q: When will the cases be reduced if we follow the measures?
A: We cannot make an accurate prediction, because different measures have been implemented, in different geographical areas and in different time periods. We are in a situation where we see a stabilizing trend for a long time. We hope that this month there will be a decrease due to the return of tourists from their vacations, as long as they comply with the measures and there are no more transmissions to other populations.
Q: How concerned are you about the widespread cases found in clusters in recent days? For example, in nursing homes in Moria.
Of: It is quite worrying, especially in the case of nursing homes, because the entire population there belongs to vulnerable groups. As we have already said, the measures in these structures must be strictly adhered to. Regarding a closed structure to host refugees or immigrants, the particularity of the population and the fact that too many people live in a small area and the measurements cannot be observed (especially that of physical distance) can cause great dispersion. This is also something that concerns us. Steps will be taken to limit and control transmissions at the reception unit on Lesbos. The difference with nursing homes is that the population is younger and fortunately we will not need serious hospitalizations or the death rate will be much lower.
P: Asymptomatic patients estimate approximately. Is there a de facto underdiagnosis?
Of: What you say is very correct. There is underdiagnosis in all countries. From the rough estimates that I have heard and have, the total number of cases lately in our country must be 3-5 times more than the cases that have been diagnosed. We currently have around 3,000 active cases diagnosed in the community. The real ones can be around 10,000 in size. Regarding the percentage of asymptomatic patients, according to a recent study, it is estimated that it is approximately ¼ of all cases.
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