Greek-Turkish: escalation of pressure for dialogue: lack of Stoltenberg and subversive stance of Turkey

September is expected to be crucial for the development of the Greek-Turkish language, with the two countries experiencing the longest-lasting tension, both verbally and on the ground, since 1974.

With Oruc Reis continuing his “tour” through areas above the Greek continental shelf and closer to Kastelorizo, which Ankara has been targeting in recent days, and the density of warships in the area increases the likelihood of an accident, the concern of the international community is more than obvious.

In less than 45 days, Turkish provocations have changed from annoying phrases and “simple” airspace violations, to constant insults to anyone who disagrees with Ankara’s goals at every appearance by Tayyip Erdogan or his already constant close associates. NAVTEX publications, in areas belonging to the Greek continental shelf.

These maneuvers by the Turkish president – who may have chosen the path of no return – have mobilized with more intensity in recent days both the European Union, and especially Germany, which has been following a policy of appeasement towards Ankara and without a doubt wants to avoid. the possibility of a fiery episode in the Eastern Mediterranean, as well as in the United States, which has the margin and the potential to put pressure on Erdogan.

Pressure from the international community

Indicative of the effort to de-escalate was the new telephone communication that German Chancellor Angela Merkel maintained with the Turkish president, to lower the tone. Although there is no announcement by Germany, during her communication, Erdogan directed her fire towards Athens, emphasizing that “it is unacceptable that the selfish and unjust attitude of Greece is supported by some countries.”

At the same time, according to the Turkish presidency, he expressed satisfaction with Merkel’s efforts to contribute to the solution of the problem in the region, which according to him “is caused by the steps of Greece and the countries that support it.”

However, when it comes to the EU Member States, France is the one that better than anyone has understood what is at stake in the region. Paris is not going to accept that Turkey becomes the dominant power in the Mediterranean and is on the side of Athens. Emanuel Macron is the only leader in Europe who has a plan for how Europe can get out of this quagmire, and he knows that if Turkey’s aggression is not moderated, it will harm the EU’s own interests.

However, there was a reaction from the other side of the Atlantic, with the intervention of the US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, playing – it remains to be demonstrated in practice – a role.

Pompeo asked Athens and Ankara for a moratorium and the start of a dialogue. Following this intervention, Erdogan is said to be following the diplomatic path on the issue of Turkey’s differences with Greece over rights in the Eastern Mediterranean.

According to Turkish newspapers, the Turkish president said in a closed-door meeting of party officials: “On the issue of the Eastern Mediterranean, we will advance in the context of diplomacy. Turkey is 100% right in its rights in the Eastern Mediterranean. In case the opposite side also moves away from the steps of increasing intensity, then in the Eastern Mediterranean, through diplomacy, we can implement the policy of “cauldron-cauldron (win-win)”. collaborations and mutual support efforts that we had with the countries of the region, mainly with Greece. Bring this effort to the dialogue table and explain it to the public. ”

Stoltenberg’s call for dialogue and missing

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also took the initiative to reduce tensions between Athens and Ankara.

The Norwegian politician, to avoid a difficult discussion in the North Atlantic Council that Greece has requested about the Turkish provocations, sent a document proposing various ways to de-escalate the tension between Athens and Ankara to the military representatives of the two countries.

This document, according to “Vima”, which includes a series of proposals, does not appear to cover at this time the wishes of the Greek side, especially with regard to the departure of Oruc Reis from the Eastern Mediterranean.

However, Athens considered, in the first phase and when Stoltenberg initially thought, that there was no reason to immediately reject his initiative. It is also clear, according to some sources, that there is mobilization of specific sources within NATO (the United States, Germany, perhaps others).

Stoltenberg was quick to point out that the two countries had “agreed to enter into technical talks to reduce the risk of accidents and accidents in the eastern Mediterranean”, noting that NATO was “an important platform for consultation on issues affecting our security.”

This provoked a reaction from the Greek side, which is not satisfied with the hasty Norwegian maneuver. Diplomatic sources said after Stoltenberg’s statement that “the information that has come to light about alleged technical talks in NATO does not correspond to reality.”

The same sources stressed that “the unilateral operation of a document with a request for comment within a week is in no way the beginning of a dialogue.”

In essence, Athens denied the start of the talks, but added that “in any case, we have restrained the intention of the NATO Secretary General to work to establish de-escalation mechanisms within NATO.” However, the de-escalation is just the immediate withdrawal of all Turkish ships from the Greek mainland. ”

The Red Line of Athens and the incendiary attitude of Ankara

As is clear from the previous position, Athens has made it clear in all directions that it will not sit at the dialogue table, if Turkey does not stop the violations, if it does not comply and if all Turkish ships do not leave the Greek continental shelf.

At the same time, with the doctrine of “calm and self-confidence”, Athens closely follows Turkey’s movements in the eastern Mediterranean, as well as Ankara’s continued aggressive rhetoric, while at the same time intensifying diplomatic initiatives in the international institutions.

The Greek side proposes dialogue, but the continued Turkish provocation does not help defuse tensions.

In another impressive move, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, dressed in full military uniform and accompanied by the commander of the Turkish Air Force, flew an F-16 over the North Aegean. True to the line of harsh rhetoric, he opened fire on France and the United States, stating that “there are those who come from miles away and play the role of a guardian angel.” It is not possible to accept this. They will go as they came. ”

Ankara’s intention to involve Russia with the issuance of two NAVTEXs, warning of Russian naval exercises with live fire, is part of the confusing and tension-fueling movements in the eastern Mediterranean region.

Ankara tried to take advantage of the situation by entering a wedge during this period to gain “jurisdiction” in a maritime zone that does not belong to it. It should be noted that the NAVTEX it issued is not a cover for the Russian exercises, but a warning to Russian ships not to approach areas that Turkey has illegally blocked for geological research.

Then, after the strong reaction from Moscow, who spoke about non-existent accusations that Russia supports Ankara’s position in the eastern Mediterranean, came the clarification from the Turkish Defense Ministry that these are Russian exercises and not joint exercises with Turkey.

However, as he points out, it issued the specific NAVTEX based on “usual practice”, as the area where the Russian exercises will be conducted is under the jurisdiction of the Hydrographic and Oceanographic Service of Turkey.