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The Singapore University of Technology and Professor Yanxi Luo are trying to answer the big question that concerns everyone, that is, when the pandemic is expected to end, which, as the scientific data show, is a conclusion that cannot be easily deduced. Therefore, as research points out, pandemic life cycles vary by country and there may be different patterns in a particular time frame.
Regarding Greece, the Singapore researchers estimate that the turning point was March 30, 97% of the cases will be registered on May 9. 99% will register on May 25, while The end of the pandemic for our country is estimated on July 13.
Greece will be ahead of most countries in the world, as a study by Yanxi Luo predicts that cases in the United States will disappear on September 5, in Britain on August 20, and in Sweden “loose” on October 17. . Italy is liberated on 8/30, Spain before, on the 2nd of the same month, while the independence day of the Qatar pandemic will arrive in February and of Bahrain in April 2021. As for the (average) global breath of relief , is placed on November 27, 2020.
This research is based on the predictive monitoring model.
In its essence predictive monitoring shows the pandemic on a bell-shaped curve instead of the horizontal “S”. This choice, always according to Professor Luo, fits better with the other characteristics of his method, as long as he actively captures the life cycle of the communicable disease.. However, scientists know that the stages of development of an epidemic always have the same sequence: initial manifestation, acceleration of the spread, turning point in which the cases of one day are less than those of the previous day, then decrease and decrease.
In your case COVID-19, the models of researchers from the Polytechnic University of Singapore present a “bell”, different from one country to another, but with a common characteristic: the “tail”, that is, a line approximately parallel to the horizontal axis of the graph: the axis weather. The interpretation of this characteristic is evident. After the increase, the peak and the fall in the number of cases, the curve becomes flat, remaining at very low prices, until it reaches zero, where it is interrupted. In general, the shape of the “bell” that forms the number of cases per country in relation to time is affected by factors such as the infection process, the details of each virus, population data (for example, composition old, dominant mindset). , religious beliefs, etc.), as well as reactions to the epidemic. How individuals or institutions adapt or challenge protection measures shape the image of the curve.
Another crucial ingredient in the Singapore method recipe is the emphasis on the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) patient index. Slightly simplifying the SIR research model, it is based on two parameters, B and C, to calculate the three variables of the vulnerable, those who are already sick and people who, in some way, have already overcome the disease. Parameter B refers to: a) the days during which each case can transmit the virus and b) the nature of this virus. Parameter C is the average number of people infected by an organ, as well as data on how it spreads to the study population, again in relation to the virus’ aggression.
However, Yanxi Luo states that “our initial expectation of the predictive monitoring method is that our forecasts for the exact dates of exit from the crisis by country will change.” Especially when real-life scenarios, like the measures decided by local governments and people’s behavior, constantly change. Therefore, changes in predictive theoretical events, such as the end of the pandemic, can simply testify to the uncertainty that exists in our world. “
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