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Your researchers University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy they based their predictions on the experience of eight previous flu pandemics that went as far as 18th century, as well as data from the current pandemic.
Although Covid-19 is not caused by the influenza virus but by the coronavirus, both types of viruses affect the respiratory system and have similarities, such as the spread of asymptomatic carriers (in the case of the new coronavirus to a greater extent than the virus of the flu). )
Scientists estimate that, given the easy spread SARS-CoV-2, about 60% to 70% of the population in each country should have ifto achieve collective immunity (“from the flock”) and thus end the pandemic, which will take time.
12 photos: Coronation: Italy is gradually emerging from the running of the bulls
– Source: AP Photo
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12 photos: Coronation: Italy is gradually emerging from the running of the bulls
– Source: AP Photo
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12 photos: Coronation: Italy is gradually emerging from the running of the bulls
– Source: AP Photo
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12 photos: Coronation: Italy is gradually emerging from the running of the bulls
– Source: AP Photo
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12 photos: Coronation: Italy is gradually emerging from the running of the bulls
– Source: AP Photo
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12 photos: Coronation: Italy is gradually emerging from the running of the bulls
– Source: AP Photo
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12 photos: Coronation: Italy is gradually emerging from the running of the bulls
– Source: AP Photo
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12 photos: Coronation: Italy is gradually emerging from the running of the bulls
– Source: AP Photo
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12 photos: Coronation: Italy is gradually emerging from the running of the bulls
– Source: AP Photo
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12 photos: Coronation: Italy is gradually emerging from the running of the bulls
– Source: AP Photo
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12 photos: Coronation: Italy is gradually emerging from the running of the bulls
– Source: AP Photo
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12 photos: Coronation: Italy is gradually emerging from the running of the bulls
– Source: AP Photo
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Scripts
The three possible scenarios for the future are:
Scenario 1 (the “ugly”): The current first wave of Covid-19 is followed by a series of smaller waves (“peaks and valleys”) for a year and a half or two years, gradually weakening by 2021.
Scenario 2 (the “bad”): The first wave this spring is followed by an even bigger second wave of accidents this fall or winter, as happened with the “Spanish Flu” pandemic in 1918. Then there will be one or more smaller waves in 2021.
Scenario 3 (the “good”): The current first wave is not followed by another wave or wave succession, but by a “slow shutdown” of the Covid-19 transmission with no major “ups and downs.”
5 photos: Koronoios – United States: Measures of “relaxation” – Fear of crowds on the beaches
– Source: AP Photo
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5 photos: Koronoios – United States: Measures of “relaxation” – Fear of crowds on the beaches
– Source: AP Photo
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5 photos: Koronoios – United States: Measures of “relaxation” – Fear of crowds on the beaches
– Source: AP Photo
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5 photos: Koronoios – United States: Measures of “relaxation” – Fear of crowds on the beaches
– Source: AP Photo
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5 photos: Koronoios – United States: Measures of “relaxation” – Fear of crowds on the beaches
– Source: AP Photo
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During subsequent waves, if any, competent authorities will likely need, according to researchers, to take periodically new restrictive measures such as social distancing and then relax them again, primarily to ensure that health systems are not at risk of being overwhelmed by the sudden massive introduction of patients with coronary heart disease.
Regardless of which scenario will ultimately prevail, “we must be prepared for at least another 18 to 24 months of significant Covid-19 activity, with new outbreaks that periodically focus on different geographic areas, “said American scientists.
“It just came to our attention then. It’s not just about going through the climax, as some people think,” the epidemiologist told the New York Times. Mark Lipsic from Harvard University’s School of Public Health, which collaborated on the new study in Minnesota. He calculated that in the long run A single round of social distancing with the closing of stores, schools and other restrictions will not suffice.
22 photos: Coronation: children in Spain leave for the first time in six weeks
– Source: AP
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22 photos: Coronation: children in Spain leave for the first time in six weeks
– Source: AP
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22 photos: Coronation: children in Spain leave for the first time in six weeks
– Source: AP
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22 photos: Coronation: children in Spain leave for the first time in six weeks
– Source: AP
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22 photos: Coronation: children in Spain leave for the first time in six weeks
– Source: AP
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22 photos: Coronation: children in Spain leave for the first time in six weeks
– Source: AP
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22 photos: Coronation: children in Spain leave for the first time in six weeks
– Source: AP
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22 photos: Coronation: children in Spain leave for the first time in six weeks
– Source: AP
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22 photos: Coronation: children in Spain leave for the first time in six weeks
– Source: AP
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22 photos: Coronation: children in Spain leave for the first time in six weeks
– Source: AP
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22 photos: Coronation: children in Spain leave for the first time in six weeks
– Source: AP
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22 photos: Coronation: children in Spain leave for the first time in six weeks
– Source: AP
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22 photos: Coronation: children in Spain leave for the first time in six weeks
– Source: AP
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22 photos: Coronation: children in Spain leave for the first time in six weeks
– Source: AP
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22 photos: Coronation: children in Spain leave for the first time in six weeks
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22 photos: Coronation: children in Spain leave for the first time in six weeks
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22 photos: Coronation: children in Spain leave for the first time in six weeks
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22 photos: Coronation: children in Spain leave for the first time in six weeks
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22 photos: Coronation: children in Spain leave for the first time in six weeks
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22 photos: Coronation: children in Spain leave for the first time in six weeks
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22 photos: Coronation: children in Spain leave for the first time in six weeks
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22 photos: Coronation: children in Spain leave for the first time in six weeks
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If the cases exceed a certain limit set by local authorities again (for example, 35 cases per 10,000 inhabitants), it may be necessary to reestablish social distancing, according to a second study in Science, in which it also participated. Dr. Lipsic The researchers also point out that as the capacity of intensive care units (ICUs) increases, so does the sense of security of the health system, the next social distancing may “activate” at higher levels (for example, at 70). new cases per 10,000 inhabitants).
And this second study estimates that it will take time until the conquest of the collective immunity and that a “unique” effort to socialize is probably not enough, like the one that is now underway or gradually relaxes (depending on the stage of the epidemic curve in each country). An unknown key factor in the Covid-19 “equation” is when there will be wide availability vaccine, so that a large part of the population is immune. If this happens unexpectedly quickly, then perhaps a more optimistic fourth scenario prevails.
CNN Spotlight – United States: Deserted roads in New York due to the crown
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