[ad_1]
««We will lose 75,000, 80,000 or 100,000 people», said the president of the United States on Sunday, during a special broadcast on Fox News. He argued that imposing restrictions and suspending economic activity had prevented a much higher death toll, which he said could reach “at least” 1.5 million Americans.
In fact, the prognosis is low. Already in mourning for the death of 68,000 people due to the new crown pandemic and has confirmed a third of cases worldwide, the United States continues to record a record size. 30,000 new cases daily. At the same time, many states are choosing to allow activities to resume without waiting for the pandemic to be brought under control.
the same the White House predicts 100,000 to 240,000 deaths.
An internal report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which caught the attention of The New York Times, emphasized that possibility of a new resurgence since mid-May with almost double the number of deaths through June 1, or about 3,000, from about 1,500 per day for the past 24 hours. The White House has made it clear that the Trump administration is not adopting the content of the report.
Although the number of infections does not show a dramatic increase as the measures are phased out and in some places, the engineering of the pandemic makes it inevitable that milestones will be exceeded in the near future with heavy symbolism.
««My personal estimate is that we will reach 100,000 deaths in early June.Nicolas Reich, a professor at the University of Massachusetts and a professor of biological statistics, told AFP. Reich’s laboratory, based on its own model and that of other major research organizations, concluded that the weighted average The death toll of 90,000 will be exceeded on May 23.
Americans seem they already decided to relax the measures themselves, without waiting for official instructions, to reveal data from their mobile phones collected from four companies (Facebook, Google, Descartes Labs, SafeGraph) while maintaining their anonymity and analyzed by researchers at the IHME Institute at the University of Washington.
5 photos: Koronoios – United States: Measures of “relaxation” – Fear of crowds on the beaches
– Source: AP Photo
1 of 5
5 photos: Koronoios – United States: Measures of “relaxation” – Fear of crowds on the beaches
– Source: AP Photo
2 out of 5
5 photos: Koronoios – United States: Measures of “relaxation” – Fear of crowds on the beaches
– Source: AP Photo
3 out of 5
5 photos: Koronoios – United States: Measures of “relaxation” – Fear of crowds on the beaches
– Source: AP Photo
4 out of 5
5 photos: Koronoios – United States: Measures of “relaxation” – Fear of crowds on the beaches
– Source: AP Photo
5 out of 5
««The movement resumed. in many states, even before the guidelines for social distancing were lifted, “said Christopher Murray, head of the institute.
“This increased mobility in the last week or the last ten days is likely to cause more infections.”
The institute, which has been criticized for being too optimistic, reviewed spectacular up his prediction of the number of deaths, from 72,000 to 134,000 until the 4th of August. According to his model, the 100,000 deaths will be overcome on May 21.
Achanis Country
Of the nine models cited by the CDC on May 1, at least three predicted that 100,000 death limit will be exceeded in four weeks, including two from Columbia University. MIT predicts 113,000 deaths in the United States by June 1. Few models go beyond four weeks, as uncertainties remain high.
And it is necessary Attention: All these models have a large margin of statistical error, which affects tens of thousands of human lives.
Epidemiologists insist that no model can be used alone, as everyone does cases.
The fact that it is more difficult to predict is the behavior of the world In the coming months, will citizens wear protective masks or not? How many will be teleworked? Will “unnecessary” exits, in clothing stores, in restaurants, return to the levels they were before the pandemic broke out? Or will people go out of the house less? And how much?
“We are at a tipping point, with the resumption of activity in some states but not others,” which “further increases uncertainty,” said Nicholas Reich.
The sets in the United States hide the big ones heterogeneities in the vast country, as well as in Europe. In the early years, in New York and New Jersey, the incidence of infection is decreasing. In Texas, Illinois, or the capital, Washington, DC, the numbers are rising again. In California and Florida, the number of cases remains stagnant.
The situation differs between urban and agricultural areas and between north and south, according to the Philadelphia-based research model, which collected data on 211 counties.
5 photos: Coronation – United States: days of confinement in New York
– Source: ASSOCIATED PRESS
1 of 5
5 photos: Coronation – United States: days of confinement in New York
– Source: ASSOCIATED PRESS
2 out of 5
5 photos: Coronation – United States: days of confinement in New York
– Source: ASSOCIATED PRESS
3 out of 5
5 photos: Coronation – United States: days of confinement in New York
– Source: ASSOCIATED PRESS
4 out of 5
5 photos: Coronation – United States: days of confinement in New York
– Source: ASSOCIATED PRESS
5 out of 5
««Tomorrow’s focus will probably not be today’s focusDavid Rubin, of the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and the University of Pennsylvania, told AFP.
His team identifies heat as a factor that will help curb the pandemic, which could help marginally, but the temperature rise “won’t save us on its own»Even in Texas, where restaurants and shopping malls open. ««The deaths will continue».
The IHME researchers agree that the correlation is valid. They estimate that each degree Celsius added to temperature reduces cases of transmission by 2%, Christopher Murray explained, but added that the most effective measure, regardless of weather conditions, remains to maintain social distance.
[ad_2]
