[ad_1]
In the summer I almost thought I was over the pandemic, then came the second wave. Now, the number of cases in Iceland is again almost zero. How did the country do it?
From Monday to Tuesday, only two new corona cases, no Covid patients in the intensive care unit, the last death in connection with the pandemic almost a month ago – what seems like a long road in Germany is already a reality in Iceland . There are currently 59 active cases of infection there; the number has decreased in recent days and weeks and is now lower than since September. At that time, the island nation was hit by a second wave of infections. But now Iceland appears to have the pandemic under control again, with the help of science and high technology.
With around 360,000 inhabitants on the Atlantic island, far from the European and American continent, Iceland theoretically has a great advantage in the fight against pandemics. However, that this is not necessarily the case in reality, it became clear as early as 1918: after two ships with the so-called Spanish flu docked in Reykjavík in October of that year, the disease spread rapidly. About 500 people died in six weeks and two-thirds of the capital’s residents were infected.
Pandemic measures even before the first case
After that, people wanted to be better prepared, and so it was: the national pandemic plan was put into effect in early January 2020, even before the first corona case occurred. A scenario similar to that of some 100 years earlier was feared: As a tourist country, Iceland relies on immigrants, but immigrants suddenly became a threat.
A huge void, where coaches often go together: Iceland’s borders are open to tourists, but 75% fewer travelers in 2020 than the previous year. (Source: Seeliger / imago images)
The fears were confirmed on February 28, 2020, although it was not a tourist who first detected the corona virus, but an Icelander who had brought the pathogen from a ski vacation in Italy. There were 47 cases on the island in one week. That these were recognized immediately was a strategic success: the Corona tests have been carried out at the university clinic since the beginning of February. “We opted for isolation, quarantine and contact tracing from the beginning,” said the country’s top epidemiologist, Þórólfur Guðnason, in the scientific journal Nature. But only a short time later, the strategy threatened to fail: In a few hundred corona tests a day, one of the clinic’s necessary machines broke.
The Icelandic double strategy
Help came from the private sector: deCODE genetics, which actually specializes in human genetics, got involved. Founder and managing director Kári Stefánsson heard on the radio in early March that the WHO estimated the death rate from corona infections at 3.4 percent, he told “Nature.” However, he could not understand the calculation and decided: More research is needed. Since then, a dual strategy has been pursued in Iceland: the company monitors the spread of the pandemic and thus collects scientific knowledge. The authorities respond on this basis and taking advantage of local conditions.
One of the most important components: with each positive test, the virus sample taken is sequenced, that is, the genetic material it contains is analyzed. “The sequencing of the samples is the key to follow the status and development of the epidemic,” says Health Minister Svandís Svavarsdóttir.
Minister of Health Svandís Svavarsdóttir: The measures in your ministry are closely coordinated with scientists. (Source: Seeliger / imago images)
What is now being hastily started in Germany and other countries in light of the virus mutations from Great Britain, South Africa and Brazil has been practiced in Iceland for months. In mid-March, deCODE converted one of its human genetics research centers into a corona testing center. Now 5,000 samples can be processed per day.
Quick results and accurate investigations
This high capacity is necessary: According to the company’s research, muscle aches, headaches and cough are the most common symptoms, but not fever. Furthermore, more than half of those infected were asymptomatic at the time of the test. Therefore, residents should be screened immediately for the smallest symptoms. You will receive results after 24 hours maximum, but often after only four to six.
If a test is positive, two processes are started at the same time. Health authorities order that the infected person be isolated in a Covid ambulance. Here the state of health is closely monitored. In the deCODE laboratory, the positive sample is tested to determine the amount of virus it contains; this serves as an indicator of the risk of infection and the expected severity of the disease course. In addition, the viral material found is sequenced. Conclusions about the source of infection can be drawn from the virus strain and mutations are recognized immediately.
DeCODE Genetics Lab – Each crown sample is carefully examined here. (Source: deCODE genetics)
So far (as of January 19, 2021) 463 virus variations have been found, including 41 times the British mutation. It was first discovered in Iceland on December 21, 2020. This made the island nation one of the first countries to report infections with the British mutation outside of Great Britain. However, the mutated variant has barely spread within the country – all infections were discovered in people entering the country directly over the border.
Second wave of two tourists
This shows that we learned from the second wave in September. After the infection rate nearly came to a halt after the first wave in March, Iceland gradually opened its borders to tourists in June and July. A couple received a positive result upon arrival on August 10, but did not comply with the quarantine order. The next backlog of cases was traced by deCODE sequencing: to a pub visited by tourists. A little later there was a sharp increase in infections. Since then, the bars and clubs have been closed and the entry rules are stricter.
A first corona test must be done directly upon entry, then quarantined for five days. Then it is tested a second time. Conclusion in November: 20 percent of those who tested negative the first time received a positive result the second time. Alternatively, a 14-day quarantine was allowed until mid-January. However, since this was not partially met, improvements were made and double testing has been mandatory since then.
Almost no cases in the population
Current figures show that this tightening is working: there were 37 new infections in the last seven days. Only eleven of these were found in Iceland; the remaining positive results come from immigrants. Due to the decrease in the number of residents, the measures in the country were adjusted on January 13: Currently, a maximum of 20 people is allowed to meet, in public transport and in stores a mask is required. But: The theaters, restaurants, sports facilities and shops are allowed, although with restrictions on the number of people present. Kindergartens, schools and universities are also open with restrictions. The reason for this: According to the deCODE scientists’ findings, children are less likely to get sick.
Corona test on an Icelandic girl: According to deCODE, Icelandic children get sick much less often than adults (file image). (Source: deCODE genetics)
Chief epidemiologist Þórólfur Guðnason urges caution despite successes: The fact that there are still cases outside the quarantines shows that the virus is still in circulation, he said at a press conference on Thursday, according to the news site en English “Iceland Review”. “He added Monday: He was concerned that people would relax too much and the number of cases would rise again. The comparatively high number of cases at the border showed that the virus is spreading more rapidly abroad. Therefore, he sees no reason to loosen the restrictions further.
Þórólfur Guðnason: The Icelandic chief epidemiologist currently sees no reason to relax the existing rules. (Source: Seeliger / imago images)
Bearer of Hope Pfizer
He also has high hopes for corona vaccines: in view of the current situation, Þórólfur does not expect herd immunity due to sufficient vaccines and the corresponding relaxation until mid-year at the earliest. Because only about 4,500 people have been immunized so far, thanks to its membership in the European Free Trade Association, Iceland is bound by European distribution of vaccines. So far, only Pfizer / BioNTech and Moderna funds have been approved, and the country, like Germany, is affected by manufacturers’ delivery difficulties.
But Þórólfur has an ace up his sleeve: science could help Iceland again. The country is in negotiations with Pfizer to carry out a study in the country. Icelanders could quickly access more vaccines from the pharmaceutical company, and in return, Pfizer could obtain information on the effectiveness of the preparation and the vaccination quota required to achieve the desired herd immunity. Iceland is particularly suitable for such a study, due to the small number of inhabitants and remoteness, but also due to the many scientific findings that are already available on the spread of the virus in the population. Thus, Iceland’s dual strategy to combat pandemics could pay off here as well.
