What can we expect in fall 2020?



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In the pandemic, Germany appears to be at a point that resembles the calm before the storm. The number of infections skyrockets, but life goes on. Merkel and company want to change.

German politicians do not give “blood, sweat and tears” speeches. But with their calls for discipline and perseverance in the pandemic, some are already pretty close these days. “We do not have to surrender to the virus somehow, we can fight this virus,” urged Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) after the most recent meeting with the country’s leaders. Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU) made it clear: “You don’t have to give up!” Now is the last time to change things. Berlin Mayor Michael Müller (SPD) conjured up images of a mass grave that was dug out of an island off Manhattan.

Record number of new infections

As proof of impending doom, Merkel is said to have used the word in the round, the Robert Koch Institute on Thursday reporting a record number of new infections. 6,638 new cases in one day, even higher than the previous high from the end of March. Since many more tests are done today than in the spring, the figures are not comparable.

Lost of control

What worries experts more than the absolute numbers is the rapid pace at which they are rising again. Söder warned: “You don’t see how things are getting out of control.” There is still no shortage of intensive care beds. But the fear is that older people will become more and more infected with younger people who are currently mainly infected, and then more serious courses and deaths will ensue. At the same time, there is a risk of loss of control as the number increases: health authorities are finding it increasingly difficult to trace the contacts of infected people.

Hot spots

The number of cases has increased most rapidly in the west and south, in the Ruhr area, in Berlin, in Stuttgart, but also in individual rural regions such as Emsland or Eichsfeld in Thuringia. The infamous mark of 50 new infections per 100,000 people per week has been hit faster than expected. That is why politicians want to intervene earlier, that is, when there are 35 new infections.

Are there restrictions in spring?

Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU) sees Germany at least on the way there. “Actually, we are much closer to the second lockdown than we want to admit,” he says. That said, schools and stores will have to close again for now. Today he thinks he knows best where dangers lie. Politicians no longer appear to see hair salons as a major source of infection. These experiences should be taken into account when deciding on new restrictions.

What policy are you planning

First, it’s about avoiding contact, Merkel says. The instruments: mask, less alcohol, smaller meetings. In the future, a mouth and nose cover will also be used on the outside in some places. In hotspots with 50 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants, restaurants and cafes must close at 11 pm Here only a maximum of ten people are allowed to meet, and in the private room only members of two households, that is, around of two families of five.

There should also be contact restrictions in regions with 35 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants. The rule here is: 25 people outside, 15. In the private space, however, ultimately, it is the federal states that decide, and not all of them implement the resolutions immediately.

Principle: Vortasten

It is completely uncertain if all this will be enough. Decision makers at the federal and state levels are poking through the fog with their measures. The time passes from the infection and the first symptoms to the test and the result. “We know that today’s figures basically reflect what happened about 10 days ago,” Merkel said. Therefore, you do not know directly whether the new measures will work. If they don’t work after ten days, there is a risk of even more stringent contact restrictions. A look across borders shows just how far this could go: in the Netherlands and the Czech Republic, the restaurant industry had to shut down. In Paris, people can no longer walk out the door since Saturday night.

Principle: personal responsibility

Above all, it now depends a lot on the individual, emphasizes politics. Much of what could promote contagion is still allowed, but at the same time the federal and state governments are almost begging not to use all the freedoms, in particular to give up travel to and from risk areas.

How should it be checked?

In any case, stronger than before. If regulatory authorities cannot comply alone, federal police should intervene. “A community, even a state, should not be a toothless tiger,” Söder emphasized. “If some do not comply, he has to show that he is serious.” But it’s also clear: you won’t be able to monitor everywhere, hardly any patrol will ask individuals who are sitting in their living room with them.

What to avoid

“Kindergarten and school are very important to us,” says Merkel. A new closure in the entire area must be absolutely avoided. The same is true of stores, factories, and restaurants. Midsize companies recently warned that a second lockdown could be a fatal blow to them. One also absolutely wants to prevent nursing homes and nursing homes as well as hospitals from closing again for relatives. Therefore, the federal government wants to pay for rapid tests not only for residents and employees, but also for visitors.

What about fall break?

In some countries, travelers from risk areas have to present corona negative tests in hotels, in others they do not. It will stay that way until fall break is over in all federal states. States are arguing fiercely over the accommodation ban: holiday countries like Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Schleswig-Holstein and Bavaria in particular are in favor of strict rules, while others with many Corona hotspots like Berlin and North Rhine- Westfalia are against it. Saxony lifted its restrictions on Thursday and courts intervened in Baden-Württemberg and Lower Saxony.

What is the outlook for Christmas?

If the number of infections increases, can you still visit family at Christmas? Many fear contact blocks, especially at this particularly emotional time. Politicians are aware of this, but do not want to rule out restrictions. In theory, there could even be an exit ban for residents of risky areas, even if no one wants that yet. NRW Prime Minister Armin Laschet (CDU) emphasized the other day: “It is possible that we can experience Christmas without a lockdown.” It resonates: we have to make an effort to do this.

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