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Sunday, October 18, 2020
By Roland Peters
For a long, long time, it seemed that support for the president of the United States, Trump, was stable, as did his lag behind challenger Biden in the electoral polls. Then October began.
If Donald Trump activists were allowed to pick a reality, it would probably look like this: As in 2016, Democrats stay home on November 2 out of frustration over a dubious candidate. Republicans, meanwhile, can count on Trump’s main electorate, frustrated whites without college degrees; they show the enthusiasm needed to keep “their” president in office for another four years and convince fickle enough that only Trump could get the economy going again.
But this scenario does not look like two weeks before the elections in the United States. By contrast, Trump’s challenger increased his lead in polls among registered voters in crucial October. On a national average, Democrat Joe Biden is now about 10 percent ahead of the president, about three percent more than in September. Trump is also a bit lagging behind in several contested states that are crucial to the election outcome.
It is possible that, as in 2016, the Democrats will see the election as almost won and Trump will repeat his triumph with the help of angry former non-voters. But there are several things that speak against it. In this election campaign, for example, most polling stations interviewed proportionally more people with lower educational qualifications. If the situation were similar to four years ago, Trump’s results should be better. The opposite is true. At the same time, before the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton was roughly four percent less than Biden’s current lead.
The leap in Biden’s polls earlier this month was seen after the first televised debate, as Trump constantly misled both Democrats and conservative news anchor Fox News. That could have cast doubt on fickle voters. In addition, he realized that the US was up to its ears in the mud of the crisis: the corona virus reached well-known Republicans, the White House and also the president himself. Trump received oxygen, his health was very critical.
Since then, Trump has tried in vain to gain an electoral advantage from his contagion, to sell the threat as an external threat, and thus to target others. A Tough Company: How can you solve the crisis for others if you can’t even keep the virus away from yourself, your leadership circle, and your family? The president bears joint responsibility for the country’s crown crisis because he saw it not as a mortal danger, but for months as a news cycle for his self-promotion, a Republican senator recently said in a question-and-answer session with the voters.
Campaign Manager Reminders
October, which has been disastrous for Trump so far, seems like a logical development from the previous election campaign: at the beginning of the year it was not even certain that Joe Biden would even run for the Democrats, the Democrat was already slightly ahead of the president in the elections. surveys. Now that the crisis in the crown has robbed the president of his great reelection argument, the good economic situation, things look worse for him.
Regarding donations, it can be seen that the prospect of removing Trump from office is clearly mobilizing more and more Democrats. For example, when Liberal Chief Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died and it was unclear whether Republicans would succeed in replacing her with a conservative, more Americans donated to Biden than ever before. He now has a lot more money in the campaign fund than Trump.
So everything is safe for Biden? Not from the point of view of your electoral activists. In an internal circular, campaign manager Jen O’Malley cautions Dillon against complacency: “While we have a strong national lead, we are only three percent ahead in states like Arizona and North Carolina, in the United States. that we count for victory, “said the United States, quoted by him. -Review “El Cerro”. Even the best polls could turn out wrong, so the election campaign should be run as if you were late. Even in big and contested Florida, the poll results point to a head-to-head race.
Trump’s electoral victory four years ago was narrow and was only successful thanks to the Electoral College, the electoral system. Despite the lack of enthusiasm, Clinton won a majority of the votes, but they were not enough. This time around, Democrats are trying to convince their voters to vote by mail, which is already underway. 233 million Americans are eligible to vote, more than 80 million vote-by-mail ballots have been requested according to the University of Florida, and thus nearly 27 million votes have already been cast nationwide. There is a tendency for more Democrats to vote by letter than Republicans.
It is true that you have to be more careful with forecasts than with surveys; However, they undoubtedly show something new: Trump’s probability of victory is currently only 13 percent, estimates the statistics portal “FiveThirtyEight”, as low as ever before. At the end of September it was still above 20 percent. Biden’s campaign manager is also not convincing. Do not underestimate Donald Trump or his ability to break through again in recent days, he warns: “Through any dirty campaign or covert tactic.”
