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meIt’s an open warning to the US: Beijing is launching two medium-range missiles into the South China Sea. Shortly before, a US reconnaissance plane is said to have entered a no-fly zone where the Chinese military was conducting target practice. The incident shows how much the conflict between the United States and China has reached a critical point. Sounds of military sabers, sanctions, trade disputes: the relationship between the United States and China has hit rock bottom.
At this very moment, the Chinese Foreign Minister is visiting Europe. Wang Yi travels to Italy, Holland, Norway, France and on Tuesday also to Germany. It is an attempt to ensnare Europe in the face of China’s hostility towards the superpower on the other side of the Pacific. To put the Europeans on your side.
“Before the hot phase of the US election campaign begins, it is important that China consolidate its partnership with Europe,” says Michael Winzer, director of the Beijing office of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, affiliated with the CDU. Beijing does not assume that China’s US policy will change after the election, regardless of whether US President Donald Trump is re-elected or is replaced by Democrat Joe Biden. “Maybe in tone, but not in substance,” Winzer says in an interview with WELT.
Recently, it seemed that relations between the United States and China were relaxing. In January, both sides signed an agreement on the first phase to resolve their trade war. But the moment of hope was brief. The dispute escalated again in July, when the two powers mutually ordered the closure of consulates in Houston and Chengdu.
Relations with Europe have cooled
Foreign Minister Wang said in Rome that the relationship between China and Europe was being “sabotaged by external forces.” Both sides must “dispel the interference,” as reported by the Communist Party news agency Xinhuanet. Wang did not give a name, but who he meant by his allusions is clear: the United States. So now Chinese hopes rest with Europeans.
But the relationship with Europe, traditionally shaped by efforts to establish good trade relations, has cooled in recent months. Hong Kong, 5G and Huawei, the suppression of the Uyghurs, the initial cover-up of the crown crisis, the escalation with the US: The list of conflicting issues is long.
Wang’s visit to Europe on Friday was overshadowed by news that about a week ago China’s coast guard arrested twelve pro-democracy activists from Hong Kong as they fled to Taiwan. Earlier, several activists had fled to liberal Taiwan for fear of prosecution under the new security law. The law, which China passed in late June, targets Hong Kong’s democracy movement and de facto ends with the “one country, two systems” principle.
There is also a dispute over the expansion of the super-fast 5G cellular network. The Chinese group Huawei, a leading global provider of cellular networks, is considered a high-risk provider. The United States feared espionage. For this reason, the UK has already excluded Huawei from the 5G expansion.
China has long been known to oppress the Uighur people. Also that the People’s Republic locks up members of the Muslim minority in so-called re-education camps in the Xinjiang region. The current investigation of the platform “BuzzFeed News”, however, now makes its scope alarmingly clear: journalists evaluated satellite images and found 260 internment camps that were built in the last three years. Some of them are designed for more than 10,000 prisoners and are similar in size to New York’s Central Park.
Furthermore, Brussels has long tried, so far without success, to make China fairer in international trade. “It becomes problematic when countries compete but don’t follow the same rules,” says China expert Winzer. For example, European companies have limited access to the Chinese market. Often times, the government decides in which industries it is allowed to invest and in which it is not. Therefore, the EU and China have been negotiating an investment protection agreement since 2013.
The agreement should be ready by the end of 2020. For winegrowers, the outcome of the negotiations is an indicator of which strategy will work when dealing with Beijing: “The German Council Presidency will show which Chinese policy is most successful: the European one, which is based on dialogue and exchange, or the American, which is Seeks confrontation. “
The moment when Germany has to show its colors
In fact, the Federal Government has been so reluctant to date mainly because the economic ties between China and Germany are particularly close. The People’s Republic is Germany’s most important trading partner. That is why both politicians and businesses relied on the principle of “change through trade”. With an economic opening, democratization will continue by itself, they hope. But despite the fact that China opened up economically, political liberalization is not yet in sight.
German managers, in particular, slow down when it comes to criticizing the government’s anti-freedom course in Beijing too harshly, whether in the case of Hong Kong or the oppression of the Uyghurs. Because Germany is so dependent on exports, its own values and moral interests must be weighed very carefully, Siemens boss Joe Kaeser told Germany’s publishing network last September.
“If jobs in Germany depend on how we handle controversial issues, then the general outrage should not be raised, but rather consider positions and measures in all respects,” Kaeser said. Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU), who was visiting Beijing shortly before Kaeser’s remarks, warned at the time that a solution for Hong Kong can only be found through dialogue.
However, after repeated human rights violations and the crackdown on the democracy movement in Hong Kong, culminating in the controversial security law, the tone changed. In late July, Federal Chancellor Heiko Maas (SPD) announced that he would suspend the extradition agreement with Hong Kong. The week before, Maas had named China a systemic rival. And Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier even launched a barely hidden threat in the direction of Beijing: If the People’s Republic adheres to the security law, “there will be a lasting negative change in the European and Western states.”
It seems that the time has come for the German government to show its colors. One thing stands in the way of a determined European policy on China: a divided Europe. EU countries like Greece, Hungary and Italy expect billions in investment from China, and therefore insist on moderation.
Furthermore, China is moving towards the eastern sphere of influence of the EU and increasingly investing in the Western Balkan countries from year to year. Winzer warns: “When China’s activities go against European interests, the EU must react unanimously.” However, this unit has certainly been questioned in recent weeks and months. And that is exactly what Beijing is playing at the cards.
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