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Union falls below 30 percent in poll, only one coalition possible
In a poll, the Union fell four percentage points and again bet the positive effect of the Corona crisis. On the chancellor issue, Laschet was behind the green politician Habeck, but ahead of another direct competitor.
DThe Union has clearly lost its approval in the federal government in the course of the discussion on the issue of masks and the difficulties in starting vaccination, according to a survey. CDU / CSU could currently expect 29 percent of the vote, four percentage points less than the previous week, as revealed by the poll released Wednesday by opinion research institute Forsa for the “trend barometer” RTL / ntv.
The Union was last at this survey level in the winter of 2020, before the outbreak of the corona pandemic.
The Greens, in particular, benefited from the Union’s weakness, improving by three percentage points to 21 percent. The values of the SPD (16 percent), AfD (ten percent), FDP and Left (eight percent each) were unchanged.
A new Bundestag would currently have 728 members. The distribution of seats: CDU / CSU 232, Greens 165, SPD 126, FDP 63, Linke 63 and AfD 79 members. The Greens could expect an additional 98 MPs compared to the 2017 federal elections, and all other parties would lose seats. For a majority capable of governing, 365 seats would be needed in the new parliament. With a total of 397 terms, only the black-green could form a government at this time.
The Union and the SPD would jointly have 358 seats, green-red-red, and a traffic light coalition (green-red-yellow) would each have 354 members; therefore, they could not rule.
On the chancellor’s question, both conceivable Union candidates have lost one percentage point compared to the previous week. However, Markus Söder is still the tallest. If German citizens could directly elect their chancellor, 36 percent would currently elect a chancellor candidate Söder: his possible competitor Robert Habeck would reach 20 percent (plus two percentage points), the SPD chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz al 15 percent (unchanged). If the Union ran Armin Laschet as a candidate for chancellor, he would currently have 21 percent and be one percentage point behind Habeck and one percentage point ahead of Scholz. Habeck could gain a percentage point compared to the previous week, the value of Scholz remains unchanged.
For the survey conducted by the opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of Mediengruppe RTL, 2501 people were interviewed from March 9 to 15. The statistical margin of error is plus / minus 2.5 percentage points.