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NATO country Turkey is expanding its influence in Russia’s backyard. In the military successes of Azerbaijan in the war against Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region since the end of September, Turkish combat drones and military advisers have played a decisive role. The ceasefire agreement negotiated by Russia gives its Turkish partner Azerbaijan large territorial gains. Ankara was unable to enforce its demand for Turkish troops to be stationed in the Caucasus.
But at least the Turkish soldiers are said to be deployed together with Russian officers at a command center in Azerbaijan. Additionally, the opening of a road link in the region gives Ankara direct overland access to central Azerbaijan for the first time. Azerbaijan’s ties with its partner Turkey are growing closer.
This means that Turkish President Erdogan has achieved new success in his aggressive foreign policy. Turkey is involved in Syria and Libya, intervenes in the exploitation of gas reserves in the eastern Mediterranean, has its air force attacked in Iraq and now has a foot in the door also in the Caucasus.
Everywhere, Erdogan’s main goal is to ensure that his country has a voice in regional affairs. However, Turkey lacks a political vision that goes beyond short-term actions.
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In the Caucasus, for example, there are now about 2,000 Russian soldiers who were not there before; it is questionable whether this corresponds to the long-term interests of Azerbaijan and Turkey. In Syria, Turkey remains dependent on Russia. Erdogan also acts without consulting his Western allies.
If new tensions arise with Russia in the Caucasus, Turkey could return to the promise of NATO assistance, but Europe and the United States will not want to help Erdogan out of a situation that he has caused himself.
Problems are emerging in other areas as well. The EU wants to decide on economic sanctions against Turkey in early December due to the gas dispute in the Mediterranean. Under President-elect Biden, the United States could also impose new punitive measures against Ankara. Erdogan’s policy bill is still pending.
