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November 3 is coming!
Then the United States will decide whether US President Donald Trump will live in the White House for another four years, or whether his Democratic challenger Joe Biden will become the new most powerful man in the world.
Even if polls currently see a clear advantage with Biden, the election is still wide open. Because again in 2016, the polls saw Hillary Clinton ahead, and they were shocked by the reality on Election Night!
However, one thing is already certain: US elections will be decided in a few states.
The so-called “oscillating states” are decisive. Those who convince will be the next president of the United States.
The focus is particularly on the states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and especially Florida: Arizona, Texas, Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina and Minnesota could ultimately be decisive for the election.
Trump is catching up in some disputed states
Trump has recently caught up in some of the decisive states. Biden’s advantage is melting away.
In an analysis, Australian network “ABC News” notes that Biden’s current lead in Pennsylvania and Florida is SMALLER than Clinton’s in 2016, and at that time he lost both states to Trump.
Photo: Patrick Semansky / AP Photo / dpa
“data-zoom-src =” https://bilder.bild.de/photos/er-will-donald-trump-abloesen-joe-biden-77-praesidentschaftskandidat-der-demokrats-201528426-72919680/Bild/14. bild.jpg “/> Wants to replace Donald Trump: Joe Biden (77), Democratic presidential candidatePhoto: Patrick Semansky / AP Photo / dpa
▶ ︎ American political scientist and expert Christian Hacke sees Trump catch up on his strategy: “Trump relies on ‘Law and Order’ to distinguish himself as a strong man.”
Current events in the United States play the game of the president. The escalation of demonstrations, the growing unrest and violence. Homeland security is the main issue at Trump. “He tries, not without success, to push Corona into the background,” analyzes Hacke as well.
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Trump is also trying to score points for China. The country is also a good outlook for Democrats. “But Trump will try to single out Biden as a friend of China,” Hacke said.
The fact that Trump recently questioned climate change in light of the devastating wildfires in California probably won’t hurt the US president.
▶ ︎ Andreas Falke, American expert and professor of foreign studies at the University of Erlangen-Nuremberg: “Trump’s denial of climate change doesn’t hurt him much. All three states are so democratic that losing votes doesn’t hurt. It would be different if the wildfires had broken out in an undecided state like Ohio or Florida, it would be much more difficult for Trump, “he analyzes.
What other factors are determining in this choice?
▶ ︎ Indecisive voters: In 2016 there were an above-average number of voters who did not know where to put their cross just before going to the polls. And it is precisely from this group that a higher than average number of people voted for Trump. Current values suggest that the pool of undecided voters is significantly smaller this time than in 2016. This makes big surprises less likely.
▶ ︎ Electoral participation: The deciding factor will be whether Democrats and Republicans can mobilize their regular voters. In 2016, Trump was particularly successful with the ‘white workers’ group. In general, current values indicate that there will be a high participation; This generally means that the surveys are closer to the bottom line.
▶ ︎ Postal vote: Due to the corona epidemic, more people than ever are expected to vote by mail. Here, the respective regulations and conditions vary from state to state, making forecasting difficult. A poll showed that significantly more Democrats (72 percent) than Republicans (22 percent) may want to vote by letter. Meanwhile, Trump is trying to question the legality of voting by mail. It is quite possible that in the end a court will have to decide on the validity.
App users participate in the survey here.
Expert: “The survey results are extremely unreliable”
Even if there are some factors that speak of a higher precision of the survey values than last time, there is a risk that the results will surprise you in the end.
One of the main reasons: Many Americans are not open to voting for Trump. Others completely refuse to participate in the surveys.
Photo: Ross D. Franklin / AP Photo / dpa
“data-zoom-src =” https://bilder.bild.de/photos/nicht-alle-trump-waehler-haben-so-offen-zu-ihrem-praesident-wie-diese-junge-frau-bei- eine-Wahlvera-201528427-72920202 / Bild / 5.bild.jpg “/> Not all Trump voters are as open to their president as this voter Photo: Ross D. Franklin / AP Photo / dpa
Photo: Ethan Miller / AFP