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“We have to wait and see what happens,” Donald Trump responded when asked by a journalist on Wednesday if he would guarantee a peaceful handover in the event of “victory, defeat or draw” after the presidential election. The president rejected such a guarantee, not for the first time. As early as July, when asked if he would recognize the election result, Trump remained clouded: “I have to see that. I’m not just going to say yes, “he told Fox News.
In 2018, he praised the decision of the Communist Party of China at the end of Trump’s “friend” Xi Jingping to lift the two-term limit for the president. You should do that too, Trump said at a donor meeting. Even before the election four years ago, Trump announced at a rally that, of course, he would accept the election result, “if I win.”
Would Trump have really been serious then? It’s not clear. He won the 2016 election and became the 45th president of the United States. This time, however, his words could be put to the test. In almost every national poll, Democrat Joe Biden is ahead. What if Trump just stays, uses his powers as president to prevent a power shift? Observers fear violence and chaos.
Because the stakes are high for Trump. He would lose his immunity from prosecution with the most powerful office in the world. His opponents accuse him of obstruction of the judiciary and unfair campaign financing. It is very possible that if he were voted, it would be decided.
No one can predict what will happen after November 3. From today’s perspective, the war scenarios seem to have emerged from a dystopia. And yet Trump with his statements at least no longer makes such developments seem completely impossible. Can American democracy cope with such a process? Four scenarios.
Civil war: weeks of fighting after Election Day
On the evening of November 3, Election Day, before the closing of the first polling stations on the East Coast: “Big win,” Trump tweeted: “Four more years!” Late at night, Trump said he wasn’t even thinking about leaving the White House. In several states, including Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, citizens, mainly black, were not allowed to vote after waiting hours. The number of polling stations in predominantly African-American municipalities has been drastically reduced.
Florida Governor (Republican) Reports Trump Election Victory, Multiple Mayors Doubt Database. Heavily armed Trump supporters and left-wing protesters, some also equipped with AR-15 assault rifles, are targeting each other in dozens of cities. Several deaths occur during the night. Trump thanks his heavily armed supporters, Biden calls for non-violence.
A week after the elections, several undecided states are still unable to present an election result. In Michigan, mail-in votes received up to 14 (!) Days after Election Day are counted. We are in mid-November and the election results are open. Trump invites you to his inauguration ceremony. Biden says it doesn’t work that way. Trump uses the military against his own citizens. The Supreme Court denies the claims of civil rights activists.
Trump’s entourage is known to have asked the postmaster (a major Trump donor) to leave postal votes out of mailboxes in cities for days. Biden says it doesn’t work that way. Trump calls on his followers to “defend our great country with weapons.” About three dozen people have died, mainly left-wing protesters, as well as police officers and Trump supporters.
In early December, the Florida governor put Trump’s lead in his state at 1,841 votes. In Georgia, Trump secured all voters with 2,561 votes. The Supreme Court casts aside all complaints, Trump paves the way through the electoral body, back to the White House. Biden says it doesn’t work that way. Now we must “fight for the soul of America.” Left-wing senator Bernie Sanders calls for a revolution. The largest mass demonstrations in US history begin. There is a wave of violence, looting, chaos, political assassinations.
Violence in the streets: days of uncertainty about the outcome of the elections
“I won,” Trump announced on election night, before 37 million votes were counted by mail. The United States has seen a record turnout. Nationally, Biden is 51 percent, Trump 46 percent. But what do the votes cast count, the “popular vote”? The president is clearly ahead in key states of Florida, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin on November 3, but his lead wanes in the days after the election.
There is no result on the night of the elections, nor on November 4 and 5. The projected majority in the electoral council sometimes changes several times a day. On Fox News, journalists discuss whether or not Trump can remain president. Everyone on CNN agrees: Biden has won. However, he is not declared the winner, but demands a “serious recount”. Left-wing Democrats ask him to become the future president.
Trump mentions several times how grateful he is for the clear conservative majority on the Supreme Court. As early as September, he had predicted that the presidential elections “would end in the Supreme Court.” There are demonstrations in 127 cities, sometimes by tens of thousands of people.
“Out with Trump,” “Clean out the bunker,” and “Lock up the fascists,” they yell. Trump supporters patrol the streets in many cities, encouraged by Attorney General William Barr. They shoot three radical leftists. Trump retweeted the corresponding message with the comment: “Law and order !!!”
OSCE election observers describe the electoral process in the United States as “extremely problematic” and report “a thousand ambiguities”. The UN Secretary General expressed concern about the various incidents. The legislatures of two states with a Republican majority send Republicans to the electoral body, even though Biden won in their states.
The Supreme Court ruled that the decision was up to the states. In the electoral body, Trump has a majority of 278 votes (Biden: 260). Biden got eight million more votes. Trump’s retention of power granted. The Congress with its democratic majority tries to abolish the electoral body and enforce a direct election.
Forced Dismissal – Secret Service Intervenes
The first two scenarios are extreme, although the individual aspects have already existed in American history. It is more realistic for Trump to refuse to leave the White House, invoking a factor that plays into his hands: uncertainty. Because as long as no one knows who will be victorious in the elections, they can claim that the majority on the electoral committee won.
It looks different if Biden is clearly ahead, and Trump fails to cast doubt on this result. But what if Trump stays anyway? He would then have to be removed from office under duress. The Transition Integrity Project (TIP) mentions this possibility. In law professor Rosa Brooks’ simulation game, more than a hundred former and current government officials and campaign bosses from both parties, academics, journalists, and election experts explain the various post-election scenarios.
If it were necessary for the Secret Service to remove Trump from office, according to a TIP finding, Trump would likely destroy the incriminating documents beforehand and pardon himself and his family to avoid prosecution.
But would the military or the secret service remove Trump from the White House? Biden is at least convinced of this version, as he said in June on “The Daily Show” news program. But these services are formally subordinate to the Trump administration until the end of his term, and Chief of Staff Mark Milley assured in late August that the US military would not interfere.
“The constitution and laws of the United States establish procedures for the holding of elections and the resolution of disputes over the outcome of those elections,” Milley wrote in a statement. “I don’t see the US military as part of this process.”
America as it was – the loser surrenders
In the America of the good old days, November 3 ends like this: There is a clear winner, both candidates accept the result. No violence, no chaos, no constitutional crisis.
If Biden wins, Trump will call him the losing candidate in this scenario. In the so-called concession, he admits his defeat and congratulates the winner. It is also common for the loser to give a concession speech. Trump thanks his supporters for their support and publicly congratulates Biden. Several Republican senators and governors congratulate Biden.
Given the bitter election campaign and the hardened fronts between Democrats and Republicans, that seems extremely unlikely. Now, it is not formally necessary for the losing candidate to give up, but it is a good tradition. A bit like in sports, when the loser shakes the winner’s hand. It almost never happens that a concession is withdrawn.
In the 2000 presidential election, however, Democratic candidate Al Gore had already telephoned Republican George W. Bush and admitted defeat. However, when Florida’s vote count was found to be extremely tight, he withdrew his admission and fought to recount the votes in the state, until the Supreme Court ended it. With the verdict, the Supreme Court justices immediately decided a US presidential election in favor of Bush. A unique event in the history of the United States.
So far unique. It looks like the 2020 elections will result in even more chaos.
