The government puts (almost) everything in the balance



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The federal and state governments paralyze much of Germany for four weeks. The pandemic will be contained with a “breakwater blockade.” It is a paradigm shift.

It is not Angela Merkel who has the best words to say when announcing the closure of Germany. The man speaking what many think that night is Michael Müller, mayor of Berlin, one of Corona’s biggest hot spots.

That night, Müller was sitting with the chancellor and head of the CSU, Markus Söder, in front of the press in the capital and said, visibly shaken: “We have all returned to enjoy a little normality.” That was related to the hope that it would continue. Now it turns out that this is not the case: “If we look now, we will not be able to help many people.”

Rather: act. And decided. With the so-called breakwater lockdown, the corona pandemic, which is spreading faster than ever, will slow down enormously – the RKI reported 14,964 new corona cases on Wednesday, a new record. Now politicians want to break the wave, with massive restrictions for the next four weeks.

In weeks at the borders of the health system

The chancellor prefers to clarify the size of the problem with a number rather than many words. With an impressive number. “Today we are at a point where we no longer know where 75 percent of infections come from across the country,” says Merkel. From their point of view, it’s the biggest problem: You just can’t tell anymore which areas of society are currently contributing to the spread. The empirical values ​​for spring and summer only help up to a point. A higher number could mean more infections in more and different places. Especially in winter.

Merkel then says what can be calculated: “If it continues at this rate, we will reach the limits of health system performance in a few weeks.” Therefore, the goal is: for infection chains to be traceable again, the number of new infections must not exceed the limit of 50 per 100,000 population in one week at the end of the four weeks.

According to the federal and state governments, this can only be achieved with a “breakwater blockade.” Close almost everything tightly once to break the chains of infection. Or as Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder says: “We prescribe a four-week therapy.” And as with any therapy: “Don’t stop too soon, it has to work.”

Tighter controls than before

The “breakwater blocking” is a concept that virologist Christian Drosten and SPD health expert Karl Lauterbach introduced into the German debate weeks ago. Studies confirm that “breaking the circuit” has an effect, but the prerequisite is that contacts must be drastically reduced by at least 75 percent, as Merkel also emphasizes.

The concept is not only intended to break the corona wave, it also breaks with the political logic of recent weeks and months. Since the first partial closure in spring, the restrictions have always been regionally differentiated. The worse the situation of the crown at the site, the more difficult the measurements, according to a step-by-step plan. Now there is a drastic closure throughout Germany, with no room for maneuver, but limited in time. It is a paradigm shift.

“Opportunity to defuse this dramatic development”

Starting Monday, November 2, only members of two households and a maximum of ten people will be able to meet in public. This also needs to be monitored more closely than before. Tourist trips in Germany have ended, the accommodation ban is celebrating a national comeback, at least for these trips.

Much of what is fun and takes place in public must stop: theaters, concert halls, cinemas, amusement parks, arcades, brothels, swimming pools and gyms must close. Entertainment events are prohibited, professional sport can only be played without spectators. Cosmetic studios and massage practices must close, except for medically necessary treatments.

Unlike spring, Söder emphasizes, retail remains open. Hairdressers can also continue. And of course: schools and kindergartens. Keeping them open is at the top of the list for federal and state governments, along with the economy. And for the industries that have to close now, there should be ample financial aid.

And yet there are severe restrictions. The question is: will they be of any use?

If you show solidarity now, says Berlin Mayor Müller, then you have “a chance to defuse this dramatic development.” Bavarian Prime Minister Söder said of his “four-week therapy”: “We hope the dose is correct.” So a chance and a hope. Nobody wants to give guarantees, but: it is a plan.

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