The crisis of Corona tears the fiscal gap of almost 100 billion euros in the coffers

Starting at: 4:53 p.m. The | Reading time: 3 minutes.

reThe crown crisis is breaking a huge hole in the treasury. For the first time since the 2009 financial crisis, federal, state and local tax revenues are falling, as announced by the Ministry of Finance in Berlin on Thursday. Tax estimators expect 81.5 billion euros less tax to come in this year than last year, a decrease of more than ten percent. Therefore, the federal government, states and municipalities have to settle for 98.6 billion euros less than expected in November, and they are already planned in homes.

Tax revenues are forecast to fall even more dramatically than in the financial crisis. The prospects for the coming years are bleak. By 2024, it is estimated that the state will have around 315.9 billion euros less available than expected last fall.

Finance Minister Olaf Scholz (SPD) spoke at a press conference on Thursday about “significantly lower earnings.” However, thanks to “sound budgetary policy in recent years,” the government can cope with the situation.

Scholz emphasized that it was only a “snapshot” because the subsequent course of the pandemic could not be predicted reliably. There may be developments that require a reevaluation. Scholz announced an unscheduled additional tax estimate in September before next year’s budget was drawn up. Then reduced income could be more accurately predicted.

He did not believe in responding to a crisis with the aim of generating confidence with a rigid austerity policy. “I don’t think you can save against a crisis,” said Scholz. That is why the federal government is relying on an economic stimulus program and not an austerity program.

The spring economic forecast is an essential basis for tax estimation. The federal government expects the worst recession in post-war history due to the Corona crisis. Economic output is likely to drop 6.3 percent. This causes not only the collapse of the sales and trade tax, but also the income tax due to drastic short-term work.

The Ministry of Finance now estimates that the costs of Corona’s aid packages are 453.4 billion euros in 2020 alone. In addition, there are guarantees of more than 800 billion euros that can still be applied if companies are unable to meet their obligations. credit.

Municipalities also expect help

Therefore, it suggests that the 156 billion euros foreseen in new debts in the federal budget are not enough to mitigate the consequences of the pandemic. In June, Scholz wants to present a big stimulus package that is supposed to help the economy recover, but should also gobble up many billions more. Not only companies, but also municipalities with financial problems expect help.

According to Scholz, high investments in a modern, climate-friendly future should remain the guide. “We took out the bazooka to stabilize the economy and social life,” said the SPD politician, referring to previous government aid programs. With the end of the restrictions and relief measures that have been introduced, the time has come for such an economic stimulus program.

The Tax Assessment Working Group meets twice a year, in the spring and fall. It includes experts from the Federal Government, the five main economic research institutes, the Federal Statistical Office, the Bundesbank, the Council of Experts for the Evaluation of Macroeconomic Development in Germany, representatives of the Ministries of State Finance and municipalities. Review the expected income for all types of taxes and then add them together.

This should also have been particularly difficult this year because the effects of Corona’s aid cannot yet be definitively predicted. For example, it is unclear whether the retail and hospitality industries can recoup some of their summer and fall sales losses.