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meThis is a completely outlier tweet for Elon Musk, which the Tesla boss posted on Tuesday night: “Important note on the revelations on Tesla’s battery day tomorrow,” he writes. The innovation it will present concerns the long-term production of the semi-electric truck, the cybertruck and the roadster.
“But what we will announce will not go into mass production before 2022.” It’s probably never happened before a Tesla event that Musk slows down and fails to fuel expectations.
Musk’s newfound reluctance is likely due to the wild speculation that has accelerated in recent days. Meanwhile, Tesla can only disappoint expectations at its own battery briefing event Wednesday night.
There is speculation about a “million mile battery”. Until now, automakers have assumed that the average life expectancy of a battery is only 200,000 kilometers, and that is not certain.
Others believe that Tesla may have made a significant jump in energy density. Musk himself had fueled these speculations by announcing on Twitter in August that he was not far from a battery that could store 400 watt hours per kilogram of battery weight.
In just three to four years, such batteries could be mass-produced, Musk wrote. Tesla batteries currently only handle 260 watt hours per kilo.
The tension before battery day is high because nobody knows exactly what to expect from the event. But also because Tesla has so far played virtually no role in the global competition for innovations in the field of lithium-ion batteries.
Although the US company is one of the few electric car manufacturers actually involved in the production of its own battery cells, the manufacturer Panasonic takes over production at the Gigafactorys. Like its European competitors, Tesla still depends today on the knowledge of Asian suppliers.
This is also demonstrated by a study by the European Patent Office (EPA) published shortly before Tesla’s Battery Day, which it presented together with the International Energy Agency (IEA). The study shows that Asian companies such as Panasonic, Samsung and LG not only dominate the battery market, but also lead the list of the most innovative companies in battery technology by a wide margin.
For Europe and Germany, the situation is serious again. The corporations that had previously dominated competition in the world of internal combustion engines are far behind.
Source: Getty; WORLD infographic
For example, Volkswagen is only 24th in the ranking of patent applicants for battery technology. Right before that, Daimler is in 20th place and BASF chemical company 22nd.
Patents registered between 2000 and 2018 were taken into account. It is not yet possible to read from the figures whether the German auto industry’s attempt to catch up has been successful in recent months. But the leadership of Asian companies in particular is enormous. Nine Asian companies occupy the top ten places in the ranking.
South Korean company Samsung is at the forefront with nearly 4,800 patents, followed by Tesla partner Panasonic (over 4,000 patents) and LG (nearly 3,000). The first automaker is only in fourth place, but it also comes from Asia: Toyota has more than 2,500 patents. After all: the only company that is not based in Asia and in the top ten is the German car supplier Bosch.
However, the gap is huge, according to the assessment, with 1,539 patent applications, the Stuttgart company only accounts for a third of Samsung’s innovations. Bosch’s positioning is particularly tragic because the supplier decided years ago that the company would not go into battery cell production.
Bosch is moving away from high investments that would be in the double-digit billion range. According to the study, most of Bosch’s innovations, therefore, do not relate to the production of battery cells, but to the integration into cars in so-called battery packs, in a sense just packaging.
The gap between Asia and Europe increased
It should also be concerning for German automakers that not only were the big Asian battery companies more innovative in the 18 years analyzed, but also that some foreign automakers were far ahead of their German competitors.
Nissan is in ninth place, but the US groups General Motors (GM) and Ford, which are not actually among the pioneers of electric mobility, are far ahead of Daimler and Volkswagen in the ranking.
In general, the gap between Asian and European companies has even widened in recent years. In Japan, in particular, significantly more battery patents were filed than at the turn of the century.
Although the trend is also upward in the other regions, the rates of increase were significantly lower in the United States and Europe. Electromobility has been the driving force behind this development since 2011. Before that, most of the innovations in battery technology came from consumer electronics and entertainment, such as laptops and cell phones.
The subject is also dominated by inventions related to the lithium-ion battery, which is currently used everywhere. The technology was invented, among others, by the Japanese Akira Yoshino, who was awarded the Nobel Prize in Chemistry this past year.
America and Europe remain in the race
As a result, battery technology is developing much faster than in other areas. According to the study, patenting activity increased annually by an average of 14 percent, an increase four times stronger than the average for all technology areas. Technical progress also means that the price of battery cells has dropped by 90 percent between 2010 and today.
“The rapid and sustained growth of innovation in the field of electricity storage shows that inventors and companies are facing the challenge of the energy transition,” said EPO President António Campinos.
Source: WORLD infographic
“Patent data shows that Asia clearly leads this strategic industry, but the United States and Europe can count on a broad innovation ecosystem with a large number of small and medium-sized companies and research institutions and therefore remain in the race. for the development of the next generation of batteries. should. “
But in light of the numbers, that also seems to be a European-friendly interpretation. Because the EPA and the IEA have also examined the patent applications that have been received for solid electrolytes, for example. This technology is considered the possible next generation of more powerful batteries. However, the proportion of innovations in this area that originated in Europe has not increased overall compared to lithium-ion technology.
The European share remains unchanged at twelve percent. The Japanese, on the other hand, were even able to expand their leadership, from 41 percent to 54 percent. This is mainly at the expense of the South Koreans, who have a total of 22 percent for lithium-ion technology and only 12 percent for solid-state technology.
The Americans were able to gain ground on solid electrolytes. If their share of lithium-ion innovations was only twelve percent overall, and therefore at the same level as Europeans, they can increase their share of possible next-generation technology to 18 percent. If the high expectations of Battery Day are met, Tesla could possibly raise the rate even more in the coming years.
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