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Deal or No Deal: That should be decided tomorrow. But doubts about a deal are mounting. Britain announced that, in the event of failure, it would take action against EU fishing trawlers with the Royal Navy if necessary.
Shortly before the self-imposed deadline expires, doubts are mounting about a breakthrough in talks on a Brexit trade pact. An agreement becomes “more difficult every day,” Federal Chancellor Heiko Maas told the newspapers of the Funke media group. But it is still possible. “That is why we as the EU continue to negotiate while the window is open, even a little bit. We will see what happens on Sunday and then we will assess the situation again.”
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has already prepared his compatriots for a no-deal. It is “very, very likely” that the negotiations will fail, he said. But that is also a solution that is “wonderful for Britain”. After all, you can do exactly what you want from January 1.
The EU Commission and the British government want a decision to be made this Sunday at the latest. In theory, however, there would still be time until just before the turn of the year. Only then will the transitional phase come to an end, during which everything will remain the same despite the British leaving the EU. Therefore, the British media speculate that a return to the negotiating table would not be possible even if they admitted failure on Sunday.
Royal Navy versus EU fishing trawler?
Positions on fundamental issues remain far apart. One of the main points of contention is access to fishing grounds within Britain’s 200-mile zone around its shores. The point is that the British want to decide for themselves who is allowed to fish how much in their waters. But the exclusive economic zone, which the country now claims, is not in line with the historically developed division of fishing grounds as defined in the framework of European fisheries policy.
Economically, the issue hardly plays a role, but symbolically it should hardly be underestimated for former maritime power Great Britain. Neither side wants to give in. London has even announced that it will use Royal Navy ships to protect its waters if necessary. Navy patrol boats could be used to repel EU fishing boats, among other things, a UK government spokesman said. That is also possible throughout the day.
Controversial point of competition
The issue of competitive conditions is not resolved either. The EU position is that competition from Britain can only aspire to duty-free trade if both sides of the English Channel apply the same labor, social and environmental standards. But for London that is a matter of principle. With Brexit, you want to regain control of your own laws, borders, waters, and your own money, and not adopt EU rules, over which you will no longer have any influence. For Johnson it is absurd that, according to his presentation, the EU demands that Britain should follow changes to the EU rules at all times.
The head of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, responded yesterday: Britain is free to deviate from European rules in the future, for example with regard to environmental standards. But the conditions for access to the EU internal market should also be adjusted. For example, products that are produced in Britain under less stringent environmental regulations cannot simply be exported to the EU free of tariffs and quotas, because that would mean dumping and unfair competition. According to the EU Commission, this also applies the other way around: the EU would also have to accept tariffs and quota restrictions in the UK if stricter rules were introduced there.
Give in at the last minute?
UK commentators disagree on what’s behind the stalemate. Both parties could trust the other to give in and risk a serious miscalculation. Another consideration is whether Johnson could give in at the last minute in exchange for token concessions after presenting himself as a fighter in the face of Brexit hardliners.
In any case, nothing is certain at the moment. Should it go wrong, more than a third of Britons (35 percent) would blame their own government for the failed negotiations, according to a flash poll by the YouGov polling institute. Just over a quarter (27 percent), however, see responsibility to the European Union. Another quarter would blame both sides equally.
With information from Ralph Sina, ARD-Studio Brussels
