State elections in 2021 in Thuringia, Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: unstable conditions

The political earthquake in Thuringia, the almost taboo break in Saxony-Anhalt: the internal political dramas of 2020 took place in the east of the republic. This year is unlikely to be any less turbulent there. Because both in Thuringia (April 25) as well as in Saxony-Anhalt (June 6) a new state parliament is elected, also in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (September 26).

Thus, three of the six state elections in 2021 will be held in the new federal states, as they are still called more than 30 years after German unification. This time around, people are not just watching very closely because there are Bundestag elections in the fall. As in many of the recent elections in the east, this time too, especially in Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt, there is a risk of complicated conditions in the formation of governments, which is mainly due to the strength of the AfD.

What conflicts can you expect? What will influence the elections and ultimately make a difference?

These five factors will determine the electoral campaigns in the East:

1. Prime ministers

Already in 2019, three elections of national importance were held in the east: in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg. In the end, the prime ministers and their parties prevailed. This was mainly due to polarization with the AfD, which in Saxony and Brandenburg at least had a chance of becoming the most powerful force.

The party affiliation of the heads of government was obviously less decisive. Bodo Ramelow (left), Michael Kretschmer (CDU) and Dietmar Woidke (SPD) took a clear advantage against right-wing populists at the last minute and hoped that all those voters who wanted to prevent an AfD from becoming too strong would mobilize. The plan worked: the AfD couldn’t stay small, but it didn’t finish in the first place. Prime ministers emerged stronger from the elections.

The other parties suffered from the rulers’ struggle against the AfD, as they introduced severe electoral defeats. The Greens, in particular, fell short of their expectations, and in Thuringia they barely made it to parliament. But the SPD failed to score in Saxony and Thuringia, the CDU failed in Brandenburg and Thuringia.

Therefore, one of the conclusions of the losers of the elections should be that they have to attack the Prime Minister and his party even more than ever before to redefine the differences between the democratic forces and break the polarization with the AfD.

The CDU and the Thuringian SPD, which are currently working on Ramelow, are already trying. In Saxony-Anhalt, the SPD and the Greens undertake a confrontational course with the CDU coalition partner. The electoral campaign can be uncomfortable for heads of government.

2. Management dispute in the AfD

The Federal AfD is still fighting for the course, which has an impact on state associations. The party is divided between supporters of federal president Jörg Meuthen and the formally disbanded völkisch-nationalist “wing” of the party.

The eastern associations are all under the leadership of radical right-wing representatives, especially Björn Höcke in Thuringia. But now there is also some resistance there. This is most noticeable in Saxony-Anhalt, where a supposed moderate wing has a bitter dispute with the spokesmen of the right. The supposedly moderates are outnumbered in the East, but the struggle for power within the party could also cause problems for the AfD there.

It is not yet clear how the AfD’s downplaying stance on the corona virus will affect supporters. In the next year, the Office for the Protection of the Constitution could also classify the entire party as a suspect case in the area of ​​right-wing extremism. Many of the especially right-wing people can be found in the East.

In the eastern federal states of Germany, the AfD has been particularly strong so far and celebrated its first big successes here. 2021 will show if he can do it again after his first years in parliament. Polls indicate that right-wing populists, at least in Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt, could maintain their latest results at more than 20 percent. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania alone, opinion polls currently see the AfD at 15 percent, which is significantly weaker than in 2016.

3. Stability of the CDU

At least since the election of FDP man Thomas Kemmerich in Thuringia as prime minister (in the short term) with votes from AfD and CDU, Christian Democrats have had to put up with the question of whether the right-wing firewall is breaking down. In the municipalities, the two parties have already become closer, and there are also voices in parliamentary groups that can imagine working together. Including vice-chairmen of parliamentary groups in Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia.

The CDU’s top candidates, on the other hand, recently distanced themselves significantly from any mind game about cooperation with the AfD. Saxony-Anhalt Prime Minister Reiner Haseloff even removed his Interior Minister Holger Stahlknecht, who was also the CDU’s regional head, from the cabinet when he spoke about the option of a minority government amid the crisis of the coalition for the increase of radio license. This would only have been conceivable in practice if the CDU had also sought common majorities with the AfD.

Thuringia’s main candidate Mario Voigt said in an interview with SPIEGEL that the CDU and the AfD are like “fire and water” and that there is no cooperation with the far-right party. But what if the situation for the majority becomes complicated once again, if the CDU could provide the prime minister with the help of the AfD?

Then those who are not so afraid of contact with the AfD will speak again.

4. Crown as an uncertainty factor

The virus continues to require all the political attention. State governments, in particular, have an important role to play in fighting the pandemic, with prime ministers leading the way alongside the chancellor.

On the one hand, this gives them the opportunity to prove themselves as crisis managers. But if the situation gets out of control, it falls to the government.

The danger is acute: East German states weathered the first wave lightly, so lightly that their prime ministers called for a particularly strong and swift relaxation. But in the fall and winter, the number of infections increased dramatically here as well.

Thuringia has been hit particularly hard among the countries where voting takes place; the Covid-19 card for Saxony-Anhalt is also bright red. Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania has long since ceased to be a Crown-blessed country, even if the seven-day incidence remains well below the national average.

The subsequent course of the pandemic and how politicians cope with it will influence the vote of voters. Thuringia Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow could have the biggest problems here, because Thuringia will be elected in April. Reiner Haseloff and Manuela Schwesig, on the other hand, can expect the situation to calm down in June and September respectively.

5. Federal and federal government signals

The CDU has not yet decided who its new party leader should be. As soon as the race is resolved in mid-January, an even more important question arises: Who will be the Union’s candidate for chancellor?

Even with the Greens, the K question between party leaders Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock has yet to be answered. The left will also line up with a new party leadership next year. If personal data is corrected, the federal election campaign will accelerate immediately, with consequences for state elections that take place on the way to elections in the federal government.