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With its aggressive foreign policy, Turkey has so offended its Western partners in Europe and America that it is now threatened with sanctions from both the EU and the US. The EU wants to decide on sanctions against Turkey over the gas dispute. in the eastern Mediterranean on Thursday and Friday. The United States Congress demands that outgoing President Donald Trump punish Ankara for buying a Russian air defense system.
However, the Turkish head of state, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is not impressed. He insists that Europe and America do not want to upset Turkey because it is too geo-strategically important. That could turn out to be an error in judgment, some experts say.
Erdogan sees his country as a regional power that does not have to be drawn to Europe or America. Turkey is fighting with the EU countries, Greece and Cyprus, for the drawing of borders and the supply of gas in the eastern Mediterranean. Erdogan disagrees with the United States, among other things over US support for a Kurdish militia in Syria. Turkish engagement in the Caucasus and Libya is also being criticized in the West.
NATO accuses Turkey of weakening the alliance’s integrated air defense by purchasing the Russian S-400 air defense system. US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo harshly criticized Turkey’s stance at a NATO meeting a few days ago, saying Ankara had given Russia a “gift.” Relations between the United States and Greece, on the other hand, are better than they have been for a long time.
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Preparations for the next EU summit show how isolated Turkey is in the West. In October, the German Presidency of the Council enforced the postponement of sanctions against Turkey; Chancellor Angela Merkel wanted to resolve the gas dispute with Ankara through negotiations. But the German project failed. EU Council President Charles Michel has now said that the “cat and mouse game” with Turkey must come to an end.
Greece and Cyprus are demanding economic sanctions against Turkey, which according to the media could affect the Turkish tourism industry, one of the main sources of foreign exchange in the country. Sanctions against the Turkish energy sector, the banking industry and the transport sector are also possible. Tough EU sanctions would be devastating for the already sick Turkish economy. Hence, Erdogan had made a commitment to Turkey’s European future in recent weeks and expressed his readiness for reform.
Erdogan threatened to allow refugees to move to Europe again
Recently, however, the Turkish president has returned to a hard line. He recently threatened to allow the refugees to move to Europe again; In the spring, Turkey temporarily sent tens of thousands of Syrians and Afghans to the land border with Greece. “The doors are opening, the people of the Islamic State will come to you,” Erdogan told Europe. “So you see what you get.” Shortly before the summit, Erdogan again attacked French President Emmanuel Macron, who supports the demand for sanctions against Turkey. He hoped France would get rid of Macron as soon as possible, Erdogan said.
Ankara takes US threats of sanctions more seriously than possible steps by the EU. After the US Congress called for sanctions on Turkey due to the S-400, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlüt Cavusoglu said the issues should be resolved through dialogue rather than threats and sanctions. Two years ago, Trump used sanctions to enforce the release of an imprisoned American pastor in Turkey and break the Turkish lira.
Closer EU-US relations could hurt Turkey
In the dispute over the S-400, the Erdogan government has so far assumed that the United States wants to prevent Turkey from straying further from the West, even if Trump’s designated successor, Joe Biden, is more critical of the Erdogan regime than the outgoing government in Washington. Ankara may feel too safe in this regard, says American Turkey expert Ian Lesser. The United States could live without a functional relationship with Turkey, Lesser said in an online forum run by the Crisis Response Council think tank.
Closer relations between the EU and the new US administration could also have negative consequences for Turkey. Federal Chancellor Heiko Maas told the “Spiegel” that Europe and the United States should work again strategically more closely: “We must not leave a vacuum again, as in Libya or Syria, for example, which is then filled by others, by Russia. or Turkey “.
