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The EU has little influence in the conflict between the opposition and the Belarusian government, says Eastern European expert Fischer im daily topics-Interview. That also has to do with Russia.
According to Sabine Fischer of the Science and Politics Foundation, Belarusian head of state Alexander Lukashenko has changed his strategy against the opposition movement. At first there was a broad and brutal crackdown on the protesters, now it is taking more specific measures against the organizers and leaders of the movement.
“Obviously, their strategy is to counter the demonstrations with repression, force the leaders of the opposition movement to leave the country and repress them, and thus put this movement to sleep,” said Fischer im. daily topics-Interview. This is an attempt to intimidate people. It is difficult to say if this will succeed, but it is “impressive how long and how many people continue to take to the streets.” The situation “remains open today.”
“You see yourself in a geopolitical conflict with NATO”
After an initial hesitation, Russian President Vladimir Putin is now fully behind the Belarusian government. According to Fischer, this has strengthened Lukashenko’s position in the fight against the opposition movement.
In both Russia and Belarus, the movement is seen as organized from outside and aligned with the 2014 Maidan movement in Ukraine, explains the Eastern European expert. “You see yourself in a great geopolitical conflict with NATO.” Therefore, Lukashenko wants to involve Russia as deeply as possible in the conflict in order to get Russia’s support when in doubt. Russia has already taken the first steps in this direction.
He has “serious doubts” that Putin is willing to accept a democratic Belarus. “Everything Moscow has done so far indicates that they are trying to solve this ‘problem’ more or less as an internal political issue, supporting Lukashenko, sharing their repressions.”
The EU must speak clear language
For the EU, this means that it must continue to offer negotiations and mediation, but at the same time it must also speak clear language, also in the form of sanctions, should Russia intervene more strongly in the conflict.
The EU is in a very difficult situation, because the conflict that has arisen now is “in fact internal”. The EU must be very careful, “also because Belarusian society […] it continues to have a strong interest in good relations with the East. “The EU is” relatively hand-tied. “Another important means, however, is the creation of an international audience,” which of course also creates pressure. “
