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Masks, immunity, quarantine – Just back from summer vacation, virologist Christian Drosten provides insight into current corona issues and makes recommendations for the coming months.
NDR’s award-winning podcast “Coronavirus Update” with Christian Drosten is back from summer break. In an XXL edition, the Berlin virologist updates the public on masks and sprays, immunity and cluster contact diaries. The summer was “very busy,” says Drosten. However, there would have been no “surprises” and “not a single really new finding” regarding the coronavirus. However, the corona expert kicked off the new podcast season with new explanations and suggestions and devoted himself to much-discussed corona topics.
In the new episode, the researcher makes it clear that it is currently “very difficult to assess” to what limit the number of new corona infections can be controlled and when it will begin to spread on a large scale. The basis is population groups, such as families or shared apartments, that are weakly connected to each other. By connecting clusters across the country, a transmission network is created. However, there are many influencing factors, such as average cluster size, population mobility, and the extent of social contacts. They influenced events in very different ways from country to country. “And that is why I cannot say now: here is the threshold.”
Increase in the number of cases since the end of June
But it is clear that the situation could spiral out of control. “There is a possibility that we are deluding ourselves if we say: Yes, this is going very well at the moment, then we continue as before.” With more and more clusters undiscovered, because people don’t notice or hide their infection, there could be a percolation effect. Then the numbers rose steeply for no apparent reason. “I have the feeling that this is what we are seeing in France right now.”
The virologist stressed that the increase in the number of cases in Germany since the end of July is not only due to the increase in tests. Many tests had already been carried out in May and June, when the number of infections was very low, explained the expert from the Berlin Charité, as usual, with facts and reassurance. “The current numbers are real.”
Drosten recommends contact diaries
However, they also did not reflect the true frequency of infection in the population, but was underestimated for various reasons. For one thing, you just can’t evaluate all people, says Drosten. On the other hand, young people who have only mild, harmless infections are getting more and more infected. They would possibly hide their infections and not be included in the statistics. “If I’ve been to an illegal techno party, I have an even greater tendency to hide my symptoms and not allow myself to be diagnosed.”
To make it easier to track corona infections, Drosten asked people to keep contact diaries. Not everyone is ready to use the Corona app. However, it makes sense to take note of when you were with multiple people in a group at night, according to the virologist. Later, this could facilitate cooperation with health authorities. He keeps that journal himself. To have a good fall, the “maximum cooperation of the majority of the population” is necessary, Drosten said.
Christian Drosten has been a professor at the Berlin Charité since 2017. (Source: Michael Kappeler / dpa)
“Everyone will never participate”
“Not everyone has to participate, everyone will never participate. Some do not understand it enough, others are in fundamental opposition. Let’s forget that not everyone has to participate, but a large part. Even if half participate, a lot is gained. “. says the researcher. Again he promoted the use of everyday masks. Despite some weaknesses, they make a significant contribution to protection against corona infection. At least in part, they also reduced the risk of contamination from aerosols.
To achieve acceptance of the measures in society, Drosten spoke in favor of shortening the quarantine period. People suspected of having an infection should only have to isolate themselves for five days instead of 14. With this proposal he went “to the limit of the pain of epidemiology,” explained Drosten. “That’s, let’s say, a steep thesis that says after five days the infectivity is really over,” said the corona expert.
Immunity is likely to last during the current pandemic
But the consideration is, “What can you actually do so you don’t have a de facto lockdown? It’s no use if you have all kinds of school classes and all kinds of workplaces quarantined for weeks.” Drosten also suggested that the five days should not be “wasted” in the tests, but only after the end of the test to check if those affected were infected and still are.
On the subject of immunity, the virologist said that people who have survived the Covid-19 disease are protected from the recurrence of the disease. At least during the period of the current pandemic, immunity is likely to last, Drosten said. In rare cases, a new contact with the virus could cause a new superficial infection, but this should not lead to severe pneumonia. Due to the lower concentration of virus in such cases, chains of infection should no longer develop.
Criticisms of “attention seeking”
Drosten described the cases of new infections reported in recent days as “oddities.” It’s about “getting attention,” said the Corona expert. These cases would probably be epidemiologically insignificant in terms of spread and danger. Scientists would report such cases in communications, the media would pick them up, and derive numerous questions from them, for example, regarding immunity or the effectiveness of vaccines. “That does not describe the medical reality and the normal case.”
The “coronavirus update”, which has been available since late February, took its summer hiatus in June. The hit podcast received the Grimme Online Award and the Federal Press Conference Award. It had more than 60 million views. Since September 1, Christian Drosten changes weekly with the Frankfurter Virologin Sandra Ciesek in the science program.
