Poll: these are the biggest fears of the Germans

FRanklin D. Roosevelt warned against this in his inaugural address as president: Fear is the only thing Americans really need to fear. It spreads a nameless horror and paralyzes all human activity, Roosevelt said, referring to economic activity in 1933, in the midst of the Great Depression. Today, in turn, psychologists emphasize the protective function of fear.

It makes you alert and often has a rational core that the individual or society must grapple with. In the field of tension between destructive and protective fear, economists also try to probe how the level of fear develops in the population and how the structure of fear changes. Because that has direct and indirect effects on growth and prosperity.

In the year Corona 2020, the question of internal uncertainty will be particularly intense, as the world faces a new enemy, invisible and at the same time fatal. But the reaction of Germans to the pandemic is surprising: because fear of the virus does not permeate society in the way warnings from virologists and health politicians suggest.

In a survey conducted by R + V Versicherung, only 32 percent of German citizens said they were afraid of a serious illness. That is a lower figure than last year, when 35 percent of citizens answered yes to this question.

“In this year dominated by Corona, the fear of serious illness is surprisingly low,” says Brigitte Römstedt, director of the R + V information center. That’s not the only paradox that the Corona year brings. Because in 2020 the general level of fear decreased, it did not increase. “Many concerns are leaving. That’s why the all fear index has dropped from 39 to 37 percent, the lowest value since the survey began in 1992, ”says Römstedt.

The information center R + V Versicherung analyzed the “fears of the Germans” in 2020 for the 29th time. As every year since 1992, in the summer some 2,400 people were asked about their biggest concerns about politics, the economy, the environment, family and health. The results are therefore representative of the mental life of German citizens.

While health problems are limited, the virus crisis is having a massive impact on economic fears. For the first time in six years, the fear of the rising cost of living, that is, inflation, is among the seven biggest fears. After an increase of eight percentage points, it rose from 10th to second place and is now 51 percent.

There are other economic and financial fears as well. Almost one in two respondents fear that the German taxpayer will ultimately be asked to pay for over-indebted EU countries. With 49 percent of responses, this concern ranked third in the ranking of concerns in 2020. Last year it was eighth with 44 percent.

Above all, fear of an economic recession has skyrocketed this year. While this fear ranked 14th last year, it has now moved to fourth of greatest concern. Scientists believe that this pessimistic view of the German economy is understandable: “The cause and the cause are obvious. The Federal Republic of Germany is experiencing the worst economic recession in its history, ”says Manfred G. Schmidt, professor of political science at the Ruprecht-Karls-Universität in Heidelberg and has been advising the R + V Infocenter for many years on the evaluation of the study of fear.

In his opinion, the danger of new exit restrictions has a reinforcing effect. The danger of a new blockade is perceived as a great threat. “The fear that a second wave of corona infections could bring another even deeper economic recession contributes to widespread uncertainty about the economic future,” says Schmidt. Römstedt puts it this way: “According to our findings, people are much more afraid of the virus threatening their prosperity than their health.”

Capital market experts also emphasize the importance of psychological factors for economic recovery. “In the current crisis, practically all the institutions agreed that we would not control this phase through austerity measures or a restrictive fiscal policy, as was tried in the 1930s,” says Carsten Roemheld, an expert in capital markets at the company of investment Fidelity.

This time those responsible had taken a different path, which is why there is currently little evidence of a global economic crisis with a permanent recession. However, the dangers are not completely avoided: “The effects of this crisis will only become visible after a long time, when the bankruptcy and unemployment figures are fully evident after the support measures expire.”

That the economy recovers and that there is a new increase in growth based on a change in the digital economy depends above all on the psychology of those involved. “If the actors get the impression that the necessary support is actually being provided in a wide variety of areas and that the institutions involved are doing their best to deal with the crisis, then confidence increases.”

For the moment, it can be assumed that central banks and governments are sending unequivocal signals of increased support. That should significantly reduce the overall risk of a major economic downturn. At the same time, however, the survey results show that the bailout policy itself creates unrest, for example fear of future inflation.

What is surprising in the R + V study: Despite the prevailing economic concerns, only one in four employees in Germany fear for their own job in 2020. “This extension is surprising at first glance. But the puzzle can be solved, “explains Schmidt:” Not all respondents are equally affected by a general economic increase in the unemployment rate. Currently, layoffs mainly affect employees working in industries that have been severely affected by the Corona crisis. ” This applies to tour operators, cultural companies or the catering sector, for example.

Domestic political concerns, which have always been at the forefront in recent years, have steadily lost importance. The discomfort surrounding immigration has lessened further: In 2020, 43 percent of those surveyed still fear that the increased influx of foreigners will create tensions between Germans and foreigners living here. The year before, it was 55 percent. This means that fear of uncontrolled migration has fallen to its lowest level in five years.

At the same time, according to R + V, confidence in political leadership has increased. Currently, only 40 percent of Germans feel that politicians are overwhelmed by their tasks, as few as ever before in this millennium. Researchers suspect this reflects the widespread appreciation for the government’s crown crisis management. “Obviously, the majority of the population believes that the state and its politicians have the crisis under control,” says Schmidt.

The biggest concern of Germans, even before Corona and the recession, is the politics of US President Donald Trump. That was the case once in 2018 and now again. This fear is not entirely unjustified either and has a rational core, Schmidt diagnoses: “Trump’s foreign policy repeatedly provokes serious international entanglements. Particularly notable cases are the conflicts with China, which are almost reminiscent of a trade war, and the commercial and security policy attacks against allied states, including Germany. “

Key to success

However, when assessing the danger of Trump, there are considerable differences between East and West. In the area of ​​the former Federal Republic, the head of state triggers the greatest unrest with 54 percent. In the east, however, the dangers posed by Trump’s policy are only eighth with 48 percent of mentions. On the other hand, fears of conflict due to increased immigration are more pronounced among East Germans (56 percent in the east called it, in the west only 40 percent).

What’s new is that in the Crown crisis, West Germans are more pessimistic about the economy than East Germans. In the past, most of the time it was the other way around. However, unemployment in Western countries that depend on exports and industry increased significantly more in 2020 than in the East. In both parts of the country, however, fear and how to deal with it is the key to success and failure.