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Tuesday 06 October 2020
Seven regions of Germany are currently breaking the upper limit set by politicians of 50 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants per week. However, this threshold was established in the spring, complains Professor Willich de la Charité. The doctor asks for a rethinking.
From the point of view of the director of the Institute of Epidemiology at the Charité Berlin, Professor Stefan Willich, there is no “reasonable frame of reference” for the statistical evaluation of crown numbers. Five months ago the threshold of 50 new infections per week per 100,000 inhabitants was defined. “That seemed accurate at the time, but it was really just a rough guide,” Willich said on RBB news radio.
For example, this would not distinguish if the infected person is really seriously ill or if they were only tested by chance. Also, they are being tested more now than in the spring. “That means that due to the number of tests alone, the probability that this number will be exceeded here is higher. So there is no reasonable frame of reference,” says Willich.
According to the doctor, the numbers should refer to representative samples that are just beginning, for example, started by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI). “I think it will have to be defined differently again in the coming weeks based on new sample surveys,” Willich said. This would allow the values to be classified better and more realistically. As currently handled at the Berlin traffic light, contagion values (R-value) and occupancy of intensive care beds also need to be monitored to assess how exponential the infection is and therefore dangerous.
According to the latest RKI data, the capital districts of Mitte, Neukölln, Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg and Tempelhof-Schöneberg exceed the upper limit of 50 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants in seven days agreed between the federal and state governments. In addition, there is the Lower Saxony district of Vechta and the independent cities of Hamm and Remscheid in North Rhine-Westphalia. Also, ten other regions with a value greater than 40 are close to the critical mark. The number of seven regions in Germany with a seven-day incidence of more than 50, already reached on Monday, represents the highest value since data was recorded in early May.
Willich assumes that general protective measures, such as keeping distance, wearing mouth and nose protection, and following up on cases of clinical illness and their contacts, are necessary for a longer period of time. “These will be the pillars of a long-term strategy. We have to live with these measures in the longer term, then the pandemic will remain under control.” Furthermore, high-risk patients in nursing homes, nursing homes, or hospitals must be particularly well protected.
