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For several days in a row, the number of people who have tested positive for the corona virus is now lower than the previous week. But it is questionable whether it is a real decline. Because the number of tests performed is also decreasing significantly at the moment.
By Markus Grill, NDR / WDR
The Robert Koch Institute today reported 14,419 new infections with the corona virus. That’s a six percent decrease from Tuesday of last week. Also on Monday, the number of new infections reported was nine percent lower than Monday of the previous week. And Sunday’s numbers were also five percent lower than Sunday, November 8.
But it is questionable whether this really means a decline. Because according to the association “Accredited Laboratories in Medicine” (ALM), the number of corona tests performed in the 46th calendar week (from November 9 to 15) was 12.3 percent lower than the previous week. Therefore, the decrease in tests is significantly greater than the decrease in new infections. Wolf Kupatt, a member of the ALM board, is therefore of the opinion that “you cannot see a turnaround” in the above figures.
This is also supported by the fact that more and more corona tests are giving positive results. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the proportion of positive tests is a good indicator of whether a country has the pandemic under control or not. Because the lower the positive rate, the lower the number of other undiscovered infected people in a population. Therefore, the WHO writes on its website that a proportion of “less than five percent positive Covid19 tests” is a sign that a country has an overview of the actual infection rate.
In the summer, this so-called positive rate in Germany was less than one percent. In early October it rose to 2.5 percent, only to have peaked at 9.2 percent last week. This is true of at least the 163 laboratories that participate in the ALM data collection. Therefore, the value was even higher last week than at the peak in early April, when, according to the Robert Koch Institute, the positive rate once reached a value of 9.03 percent.
Probably a large number of unreported cases
A high rate of positives is also an indication that the number of unreported cases is high, that is, the number of people who have been infected with the coronavirus but have not been tested because they only show mild symptoms or because of the testing capabilities. they are insufficient. After all, Germany is not the only country currently struggling with a high positive rate. In the United States it is 11%, in Spain 13%, in Italy 16%, in France 18% and in Austria 24%.
According to ALM CEO Michael Müller, the fact that the corona tests conducted in Germany fell from 1.45 million to 1.27 million in one week is also due to the change in testing criteria from RKI. On November 11, the RKI published the new criteria, according to which only people with “severe respiratory symptoms” should be tested, that is, not all people with a cough and runny nose, as in previous months. People who belong to a risk group, elderly nurses, nurses, teachers and sports coaches and choir directors are excluded from this strict regulation.
The capacity of the classic PCR corona tests currently hovers around 1.6 million, according to the RKI. With up to five million people suffering from colds each week in the winter months, it is impossible to test all of these sick people for the corona virus in the future. Otherwise, up to 1.5 million tests per week would be required just for children 0-15 years old. Accordingly, the RKI also concedes: “It is not realistic to confirm all Covid 19 diseases in Germany by testing.”
In view of a sharp decrease in the number of corona tests with a simultaneous increase in the positive rate and more rigorous testing criteria, a slight decrease in the number of those who tested positive does not yet indicate that the situation has really eased.
