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A second Soleimani crisis looms between the US and Iran
| Reading time: 4 minutes
This photo, published by the Fars news agency, shows the place where Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was assassinated in Absard, a small town east of the capital Tehran.
Quelle: Fars / AP / dp News Agency, KHAMENEI.IR/AFP/Uncredited
He was seen as the hard-to-replace strategist behind the Iranian nuclear program. Now Mohsen Fakhrizadeh has been killed in an attack. Only recently had there been speculation about a possible US military attack.
meIt could be the event that determines the global security situation surrounding the change of power in the White House: the assassination of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the alleged head of Iran’s secret nuclear program. The tense ceasefire between Tehran and Washington that had prevailed in recent weeks could now erupt.
Fakhrizadeh was as important a figure to Iran’s security apparatus as Revolutionary Guard General Kassem Soleimani, whose death by a US drone in early January sparked a new round of violent conflict in the Middle East. Fakhrizadeh wasn’t as powerful as Soleimani, but he should be at least as difficult to replace. Because he has possibly been leading the project that is at the center of all tensions around Iran for years: the Iranian nuclear program.
The international community suspects that Tehran’s leaders are working on nuclear weapons development under the guise of a civilian nuclear program. This is indicated by numerous pieces of evidence that the International Atomic Energy Agency has been compiling since 2003. That is why Iran has been subject to sensitive economic sanctions. The 2015 nuclear deal restricted Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for ending punitive measures. But especially in the view of the Gulf states, Israel, and many Western security experts, restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities were not effective enough.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu saw a security risk in Fakhrizadeh: he blamed the researcher for a military nuclear program
Source: AFP / NIR KAFRI
That is why US President Donald Trump rescinded the agreement in May 2018. As a result, there were repeated armed clashes between forces loyal to Iran and US units or their allies. And Tehran, for its part, said goodbye to the provisions of the agreement and quickly pushed forward its nuclear program. Under the leadership of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who may now have been killed in an organized attack from Israel.
In recent years there have been repeated fatal attacks on Iranian nuclear specialists, who were commonly suspected of being the perpetrator by Israel. After all, the Iranian leadership has repeatedly threatened the Jewish state with extinction. The assassination of Iranian experts appeared to be one way Israel tried to prevent the enemy from obtaining the bomb without starting a war. But Fakhrizadeh’s assassination could cause serious conflict. Also because of the timing.
Speculation on Trump’s military attack
The fighting in the Middle East had declined markedly in recent months. Obviously, the actors in the region wanted to wait for the elections in the United States. After all, Joe Biden, as president of the United States, was widely expected to take a less confrontational stance toward Iran. Biden had also called for tougher rules for Iran, but at the same time had shown that he wanted to achieve them more through negotiation and less with the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” strategy. The leadership in Tehran was waiting for better times and the Gulf Arabs also called for a reduction in the escalation.
But after Biden’s election victory, it was speculated that Trump could carry out a military strike against the Iranian nuclear program in recent weeks. Such suspicions were fueled by the fact that the president fired Defense Secretary Mark Esper and numerous key decision makers at the Pentagon after his defeat. Of course, that doesn’t necessarily mean that Trump wanted to get rid of the objectors to an attack on Iran. But it can be assumed that there will now be new tensions. Because Iran will almost certainly respond to the assassination of Fakhrizadeh with a counterattack.
According to a report by the AP news agency, Revolutionary Guard General Esmail Ghaani spoke almost exactly of that scenario last week. The commander succeeds General Soleimani, who was assassinated in January, as head of the Kuds unit, which is responsible for international operations in the Guard. During a visit to Iraq, Ghaani told allied militia leaders that they should refrain from taking action against American forces for now, but if there is “American aggression” before Biden takes office, then “the response Iran will coincide with this coup. “
Iran should not have the ability to meet with key figures in the Israeli or American security apparatus. After Soleimani’s assassination, fighting groups allied with Iran attacked US bases in Iraq. Other possible counterattacks could hit the Saudi oil plants again. Or Israeli diplomats, businessmen or tourists from anywhere in the world. The sharpest weapon Iran would have against the Jewish state would be an attack by the Tehran-sponsored Hezbollah militia in Lebanon on Israeli soil. But Iran can only play this prankster once and that would result in an almost uncontrollable war. The leadership in Tehran is unlikely to risk such a scenario lightly, shortly before the end of the Trump era.
Finally, Tehran could also use the machinery that the assassinated Fakhrizadeh himself built: the nuclear program. The leadership could further accelerate its nuclear activities and thus get even closer to building bombs so that it can exert pressure, no matter who rules the White House.
