November aid: the anger of those affected makes the government generous

reThe worst of the crisis, according to Federal Finance Minister Olaf Scholz (SPD), is when everyone expects better times but no one does anything. You don’t want to have to make this accusation. In presenting the results of the latest fiscal estimate, the SPD chancellor candidate once again presented himself in his favorite role: as a doer who, since the spring, has left no doubt that there will be one thing in the fight against the crisis, money.

This also applies to Novemberhilfe, which aims to help all those who are directly or indirectly affected by the recent closures, namely restaurateurs, cultural workers, cinema operators, gym owners and hoteliers. Scholz has now set aside a few additional billions of euros for this help.

Until now there was talk of about ten billion euros, now Scholz talks about “funds that far exceed ten billion euros”. But he did not name a new number. How many more billions will be in the end will depend on the degree to which the aid is used.

Usage shouldn’t be a problem, Scholz promised. “We are together in this pandemic. This also means that we help quickly and without bureaucracy, ”he said. In November, the first partial amounts of up to 5,000 euros should reach all the self-employed, other companies can expect payments of up to 10,000 euros.

The first applications will probably be available from November 25 through the Ueberbrueckungshilfe-Firmen platform. At the moment there is still “intensive programming”, as Scholz put it.

Scholz left open why the November aid will now cost more money than previously assumed. The headline circle has not widened. It remains unchanged that companies directly affected by the closures will receive grants of 75 percent of average turnover in November 2019.

In addition, companies can submit a request that “demonstrably and regularly makes 80 percent of their sales” with the help of companies that have been affected by recent closures and restrictions. It could be a beverage distributor or a ticketing platform.

It remains to be seen how the group of beneficiaries is ultimately delineated in practice. This is likely not particularly selective. Because the longer the crisis lasts, the more generous aid programs become. Instead of just running costs, as at the beginning of the crisis, the companies directly and indirectly affected now receive from the state the total loss of sales for the previous month or another comparable period.

Obviously, the concern of the rulers plays a role in that the courts could otherwise revert to their Corona decisions, as happened in the October ranks with the so-called accommodation ban.

Despite Corona, more taxes than expected

The Federal Constitutional Court ruled on the closings ordered for the first time on Thursday. The Karlsruhe judges rejected the urgent request for a Bavarian movie theater with a restaurant, referring, among other things, to the financial aid promised to the affected companies. The Saarland High Administrative Court had previously rejected several urgent requests from closed gym operators and also mentioned the new state aid measures to guarantee livelihoods, almost as adequate compensation.

Scholz felt the results of the tax assessment confirmed his course. November was cloudy, but the view was toward the sun, he said. He expects initial data to be even better in the spring and summer when key issues for the federal budget for 2022 are worked out. But this depends on economic development and fighting the pandemic.

Despite the current Crown crisis, the federal government, states and municipalities can calculate tax revenues of around ten billion euros more this year than according to the September tax estimate. So the disadvantage compared to the previous year is still huge. While the state still had tax revenue of 799 billion euros in 2019, experts from the tax assessment task force now assume just 728.3 billion euros for 2020, a decrease of nine percent.

If you look at the federal, state and local governments separately, it shows that the federal coffers are particularly affected. According to estimates, there is a lack of revenue of 15 percent or more than 50 billion euros compared to the previous year. In the next year, there will still be a gap in revenue compared to 2019 of a good 30 billion euros.

The CDU / CSU doesn’t want to know much about the light in gloomy November. “The federal budget situation continues to be tense. A slight additional income does not change anything in the big picture. The federal government can only address crown-related fiscal deficits and additional spending through extraordinary amounts of new debt, “said Eckhardt Rehberg, budget spokesman for the Union.

So far, Scholz’s draft budget foresees new debts of 96 billion euros. To do this, the debt brake will be suspended again. But now it is generally assumed that it will be more than 100 billion euros, because the next aid package for the self-employed, self-employed and entrepreneurs, already announced by Scholz and the Federal Minister of Economy Peter Altmaier (CDU), but still unclear in its volume, will take effect from January. it is not yet included in financial planning.

“The federal government must now finally reveal what new spending it anticipates in the 2021 budget compared to the government’s draft,” Rehberg said. Households in the Bundestag need clarity on the amount by which the federal government wants to increase debt again.

Scholz still doesn’t know how high the debt will be

Scholz declined to comment on this when presenting the estimation results, and even tried to give the impression that it had nothing to do with it. Which is formally correct, as the Bundestag is now deciding, but in practice the deputies await a revised proposal from the Federal Ministry of Finance.

In the FDP, a further step is taken in view of the tax estimate. It is gratifying that tax revenues are developing better than expected, said group vice president Christian Dürr. “The grand coalition must use it to reduce debt and greatly relieve the people,” he said.

Any further debate about even more new debt is out of the question when revenues are rising and there are billions unused. The FDP thus reiterated its criticism that the reserves amounting to 48,000 million euros are only foreseen for the period from 2022 and are no longer being used.

Scholz responded to the criticism of the FDP with the rhetorical question of whether it was “talking reflectively without thinking.” And he continued: “We know that we will have to get big loans again next year.”

The amount of loans that will actually be needed at the end will only be revealed in the course of 2021. Of the credit authorization of 218,000 million euros that the federal government itself has granted for this year, at the end of September a little more than 70,000 million euros. Since not much expense is incurred until the fourth quarter, experts expect a total of 150 billion euros.

Here, too, Scholz didn’t want to be tied to any of the new royal debts he was taking on this year. “There is no reliable way to tell how much money we will have needed in the end,” he said. You know that after November, December can be very cloudy again.