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reThe guest, whom Angela Merkel invited to a meeting with the Prime Minister at the Chancellery on Wednesday, reveals much about the Chancellor’s understanding of the pandemic. Michael Meyer-Hermann, director of the Institute for Systems Immunology at the Helmholtz Center for Infection Research in Braunschweig, had something to say.
The scientist illustrated the possible courses of the pandemic with some mathematical simulations. Meyer-Hermann is not a doctor, he studied physics, mathematics and philosophy. Like Merkel, she has a doctorate in physics. In the spring, he argued that the crown measures should not relax, and justified it with the well-known reproduction factor, which in his opinion should be 0.75. Merkel endorsed this argument.
The Chancellor has a mathematical view of the pandemic. She is calculating. On Wednesday, the chancellor wanted to promote her concerns and desire for significant restrictions in public and private life with a mathematician at her side.
“It is not twelve to five, but twelve to turn the boat,” Meyer-Hermann is said to have said according to participants. It is on the threshold of an exponential growth in the number of infections. He proposed travel bans from hotspot regions. “That was clear and tough,” Merkel summed up the conference. Travel bans were not discussed later.
“We are already in the exponential phase, you can see that in the daily figures,” Merkel said later at the press conference. Everything possible should be done to curb this growth. This purely mathematical approach leaves other factors, which of course also play an important role for people in the crisis, only marginally. The desire to meet, to meet friends and family is of secondary importance, the social component is cited rather as the cause of the increase in numbers.
These days, the federal government is releasing a new graphic meant to be a warning. Show three circles that slightly overlap each other. “Reduce risk: avoid GGG”, the image is overwritten. The three Gs are named in the circles: “Closed rooms”, “Groups and crowds” and “Conversations”.
Anyone taking a quick look at this image, the government recommends avoiding discussions in the future. Most people will probably miss the fact that below the figure it says “when these ‘three Gs’ come together, the risk of infection is particularly high.”
Some prime ministers had criticized the focus on numbers in the run-up to the meeting. The Prime Minister of Saxony, Michael Kretschmer (CDU), for example, even wanted to talk about a redefinition of the threshold above which stricter measures should be introduced in a district or a city. He considers the limit of 50 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants in seven days to be too rigid.
The Chancellor was frustrated after seven hours.
North Rhine-Westphalia Prime Minister Armin Laschet also advocated less rigorous numerical values at the meeting, for example when it comes to the scope of private meetings. Others, such as the Prime Minister of Schleswig-Holstein, Daniel Günther (both CDU) or the Prime Minister of Brandenburg, Dietmar Woidke (SPD), opposed.
The negotiations were so difficult that they even took a break after about four and a half hours. The chancellor was frustrated after seven hours. “The announcements from us are not tough enough to avoid disaster,” he said, according to the consensus of the participants. With the measures now defined, the federal and state governments would be “back here in two weeks.” “What we are doing here is simply not enough.” The basic frame of mind is that all countries are looking for a little loophole. “That’s what worries me. And the list of health authorities that don’t do it is getting longer. ”
Merkel fought for a sensible adjustment of all the above threshold values. In many places in her presentation, only XX had been inserted instead of specific values (the chancellor apparently did not want to risk again that the border marks she had defined would not be accepted by the heads of state of the countries), but it was obvious that Merkel was strictly following the The number of new infections does not want to change.
“Therefore, the goal of all government actions in the coming weeks will continue to be to keep the dynamics of infection in Germany under control. The benchmark for this is that the incidence in all regions of Germany is below 50 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants in a week or rapidly decreases again below this threshold after outbreaks, ”he says in the presentation and later in the resolution.
On the other hand, the threshold values are not defined in another central area of pandemic control: the resolution does not say anything specific about the number of hospital admissions or the number of patients in intensive care units. Here it simply means that this requires “updated advance planning”.
The federal government refers to the regional control of intensive care capabilities by the states. The number of empty ICU beds is considered a critical factor in managing the pandemic. CSU chief Markus Söder defended the focus on new infections. “It is a simple crown traffic light,” he said. In many other European countries there are countless different numbers that are related. “No one can see through that anymore.” But it is not easy for the Germans either.
To reduce the number of new infections, the rules should now be stricter. “In general, when the number of infections increases and, at the latest, when there is an incidence of 35 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants in a week, a requirement for a supplemental mask should be introduced in public areas where people approach and / or longer, “says the document.
Furthermore, it is recommended to introduce a curfew in gastronomy from the threshold of 35. A specific time is only given if the incidence is 50 or more. So the curfew from 11pm is binding. Berlin Mayor Michael Müller (SPD) emphasized that this could be reduced to an earlier time in a few weeks, depending on the situation. Alcohol should not be dispensed after this time. Merkel wanted to introduce a curfew from 35 cases, but could not pass.
For 50 or more cases, the introduction of contact restrictions in public spaces up to a maximum of ten people is also foreseen, even for private celebrations only ten participants are allowed, but from a maximum of two households. The birthday party with ten people from several different households is no longer possible. Citizens have yet to remember other numbers.
Many are likely to feel insecure
“If the increase in the number of infections is not stopped within ten days at the latest by virtue of the aforementioned measures, other specific measures to further reduce public contacts are inevitable.” Public space is only allowed for five people or the members of two households.
At this point, Merkel also wanted to include private space. But there were protests against him, for example, from Armin Laschet. In a protocol note, North Rhine-Westphalia, Rhineland-Palatinate and Hesse stated that they only wanted to make “restrictions on the number of participants for meetings in their own private premises as an urgent recommendation.” Lower Saxony wants to verify this legally first. Saxony also has concerns. However, Söder summed up that “the team of prudence and caution” prevailed.
It remains to be seen whether the desire for clear and understandable rules will be fulfilled with all these figures and limit values. More is likely to be achieved, and perhaps this is the real goal: citizens are encouraged to impose blockades on themselves. It is not explicitly imposed on them, but social and private life will become so regulated in the future that many will feel insecure and therefore give up many encounters.
Accommodation bans, which have recently been the subject of heated discussion, had a similar effect. In principle, they mean that fewer and fewer people are going on trips, not because they can no longer do so, but because they are too insecure.
Although criticized by some prime ministers such as Laschet and Rhineland-Palatinate colleague Malu Dreyer (SPD), the group did not agree to lift the bans. Countries like Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Saxony-Anhalt wanted to adhere to the scheme. On the other hand, some want to raise it, like the Saarland. The issue was postponed, leaving Merkel unsatisfied. The next meeting is scheduled for November 8.
Politicians want to avoid the second great blockade. But now it is building rules that should in fact lead to a blockade of at least private life, similar to that in many regions in March. In addition to the health system, it is important to keep the areas of education and care as a priority and not jeopardize the recovery of the German economy ”, explain the participants. Everything else is at stake again. Merkel said: “It’s always about contacts. There are still many ways to take stricter measures. “
