New corona infections: these numbers raise the fear of the third wave

Stand: 8:57 pm | Reading time: 3 minutes.

METERor more than 14,300 corona cases reported in one day – there has been nothing like Wednesday in Germany since January 27. Wednesday has long been the day of the week when the highest number of new infections are reported, but this week there is a strong lead of a good 20 percent compared to the previous week. If the growth rate remained that high, the number of cases would have doubled at Easter.

So was Wednesday’s shocking news a lonely outlier that came up more or less by chance for unknown reasons? Or one more harbinger of a third wave in which the Chancellor has seen Germany swim long ago? Is the virus really spreading faster again? Or are more cases found simply because more are being tested?

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“We have very clear signs of this: the third wave has already started in Germany,” says Lothar Wieler, director of the Robert Koch Institute. “I would be surprised if this was just an outlier,” says James Daniell of the latest WELT figures.

Daniell, an Australian resident of Karlsruhe, has been watching the numerical unfolding of the pandemic in Germany more closely from the start than few others. Together with the volunteers, he assumes the risks reported by the more than 400 urban and rural districts every day under Coronas “Risklayer” together and published on the Internet.

More people need to be quarantined again

The researcher is concerned about the evolution of the last days and weeks. “We have now seen almost continuous increases in the number of cases for more than two weeks,” says Daniell. Another warning sign is that an increasing number of people are being quarantined again. According to the latest Risklayer censuses, 362,000 citizens across the country are currently affected by this type of isolation measures. Two weeks earlier it was only 289,000.

Experts also look with concern at relevant evaluations of anonymized cell phone data. “It has not been proven, but the data we have suggests that the number of corona cases lags behind the mobility of citizens by two to three weeks,” said Daniel Vorgrimler, chief department head of the Federal Statistical Office. , to WELT. “Viewed this way, the growing number of infection reports is not surprising. Because in February the mobility of citizens almost returned to normal in some places ”.

It is also possible that in the coming weeks, due to the increasing use of rapid tests and self-tests, more cases will be included in the statistics that would otherwise have gone unnoticed due to the absence of symptoms. The rising numbers of the last few weeks and the very high numbers on Wednesday can hardly be explained in this way.

In RKI’s latest weekly assessment, released Wednesday night, the number of PCR tests was even reduced by three percent. There is also nothing in the CRP statistics to suggest improved preselection by rapid self-tests. In any case, the proportion of positive tests is almost constant at a good six percent.

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Ultimately, says Risklayer boss Daniell, the third wave can be difficult to recognize as such. He thinks there is more likely to be “a slow and steady rise in the numbers, as we’ve seen in many European countries over the last two to three months,” says Daniell.

In fact, the seven-day incidence in the EU is again 183, almost three times higher than in Germany. “I don’t think it’s any different in this country unless we do something drastic.”