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Status: October 15, 2020 7:30 pm
If Lower Saxony elects its state parliament on Sunday, the CDU would be the strongest party. But Prime Minister Stephan Weil (SPD) remains popular. This is demonstrated by NiedersachsenTREND on behalf of the NDR.
35 percent of those polled voted for Christian Democrats in the representative poll conducted by Infratest dimap on behalf of the television magazine NDR Hallo Niedersachsen. That’s seven percentage points more than with NiedersachsenTREND two years ago. The SPD comes in at 27 percent in the current survey. It was also up in comparison, but only by one percentage point. The Greens lose four percentage points and are at 20 percent. The AfD has six percent, the left could aspire to the state parliament with five percent, the FDP, on the other hand, currently would not be represented in the state parliament with four percent.
These coalitions are conceivable
With such an electoral result in favor of the CDU by the state head Bernd Althusmann, a change in Lower Saxony would be conceivable. Mathematically, instead of the current red-black, then a black-red coalition would be possible. In terms of numbers, it could also be considered a black-green state government. And the results of the NDR NiedersachsenTREND allow one more option: the SPD and the Greens could still expect a mathematically reduced majority, and thus a new edition of their coalition.
In state elections three years ago, the SPD was the strongest party with 36.9 percent, the CDU 33.6 percent, the Greens 8.7 percent, the FDP 7.5 percent. and the AfD 6.2 percent. .
VIDEO: NDR Survey: CDU is expanding its leadership (7 min)
Direct comparison: because it is more popular than Althusmann
The CDU is clearly ahead of the SPD on Sunday’s issue, but if the people could vote directly for the prime minister, Weil would be the clear favorite. 57 percent voted in the poll for the incumbent, up four percentage points from two years ago. 23 percent favor Althusmann, three percentage points less than before. Interesting: even among CDU supporters, according to a poll by SPD politicians, Weil is ahead. If directly elected, 46 percent of CDU supporters would vote for Weil, while 38 percent would vote for their own state president, Bernd Althusmann.
Best result of a state government in Germany
In the survey, the state government headed by Prime Minister Weil received good marks overall. 70 percent are satisfied or very satisfied with their work. That is the best result of a state government in Germany.
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Within the government, the CDU does slightly better than the SPD. 52 percent are satisfied or very satisfied with the work of the CDU, ten percentage points more than two years ago. The SPD’s work is valued at 48 percent, up to two years ago.
Lower Saxony trusts the CDU more
A look at the political issues shows that the people of Lower Saxony tend to trust the CDU in most areas. It is found, for example, in economic and financial policy, in the fight against crime. Regarding education policy, both parties are almost on par: 30 percent of voters consider the CDU to be more competent, 29 percent see the SPD in the lead. This is only in terms of social policy to the Christian Democrats. At 45 percent, the Greens are very confident, especially in environmental policy, but they are also clearly ahead when it comes to agriculture. The FDP, at five percent, is more likely to be considered competent in economic and financial policy, the AfD at six percent in refugee policy, and the left as eight percent in social policy.
When asked which party respondents trust to solve the most important tasks in Lower Saxony, the SPD and the CDU were still tied two years ago. Now the CDU has overtaken the Social Democrats.
Concern for the economy
The assessment of the economic situation of the respondents shows that Lower Saxony is feeling the consequences of the corona pandemic. Only 51 percent of them consider it good or very good, compared to 80 percent in the survey two years ago.
The opinion research institute Infratest dimap, on behalf of the NDR in Lower Saxony, interviewed a total of 1,004 randomly selected people in Lower Saxony who were eligible to vote by phone from 6 to 12 October 2020. Tolerance to The error is between 1.4 percentage points (with a share value of 5 percent) and 3.1 percentage points (with a share value of 50 percent).
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